With a limited MLB schedule on Monday, our options for home run props are a little limited. We had to get creative, finding players with favorable matchups and enticing odds. The result is a collection of home run targets who have excellent value and just might surprise some people by going deep.
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| Best Home Run Predictions Today | FanDuel Odds | Kalshi to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz Anytime Home Run | +390 | Tampa Bay Rays 49% |
| Zach Neto Anytime Home Run | +410 | Los Angeles Angels 47% |
| Nathaniel Lowe Anytime Home Run | +570 | Cincinnati Reds 45% |
| Rafael Devers Anytime Home Run | +410 | San Francisco Giants 60% |
| Odds and market prices are accurate as of the time of publishing and subject to change before the event. | ||
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There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on.
Diaz continues to have one of the best seasons of any hitter in the big leagues, combining MLB’s third-best batting average at .325 with 11 home runs. He’s also in the midst of a hot streak, as Diaz has three separate three-hit games since the calendar flipped to June. While he’s yet to hit his first home run of the month, it should be coming soon.
On Monday, Diaz has an interesting matchup with Boston’s Connelly Early. In a small sample size, Diaz is 0 for 3 against Early. However, the young lefty has been plagued by the long ball this year, giving up 11 home runs in 66.1 innings. Naturally, right-handed hitters have done most of the damage, which is why a red-hot right-handed hitter like Diaz matches up favorably with him.
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On paper, Neto and the Angels have a difficult task on Monday, facing Houston’s Spencer Arrighetti. The young righty is in the midst of a breakout season, posting a 7-1 record and a 1.94 ERA for the Astros. He’s also limited opposing batters to just three home runs all season.
On the other hand, Neto has had Arrighetti’s number in the past. In just six at-bats against Arrighetti, Neto has two hits, both home runs. Neto has also hit home runs in each of his last two games, giving him 12 on the season. He’s been a silver lining for the Angels, and we’ll gladly take a chance on him while he’s in a groove.
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Lowe is not a common target for home run props, but he has good value on Monday. The Reds begin a series in San Diego, facing Walker Buehler. In his career, Lowe is 4 for 8 with a triple against Buehler. While he’s never hit a home run against Buehler, he seems to see the ball well when facing him.
While Buehler has done a good job of keeping the ball in the park this year, giving up the long ball has been an issue for him in the past. Lowe also has nine home runs this season, so he’s more than capable of going deep if he gets a favorable matchup. He tends to feast on right-handed pitching, so he’s worth a filer on Monday.
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Miles Mikolas takes the mound on Monday, which means it’s smart to bet on someone on the opposing team to hit a home run. After a couple of starts without giving up a home run, the lowly Marlins hit three home runs against Mikolas in his last outing. The Giants don’t have a ton of great power hitters, but we have to pick someone.
Devers only ranks third on San Francisco’s roster in home runs, but he’s the only member of the Giants to homer against Mikolas in the past. In fact, Devers is 5 for 8 with a home run in his career against Mikolas. It’s a small sample size, but it indicates that Devers dominates Mikolas. With three extra-base hits in his last four games, Devers’ power is coming around, so now is a good time to target him.
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