Best NRFI Bets Today: Fade the New York Yankees Without Aaron Judge

With Aaron Judge dealing with an injury, the New York Yankees top of their order will get off to a slow start in their matchup against Gavin Williams who excels at avoiding contact. Shortly after their opening pitch, positive regression looms large over Patrick Corbin as he faces off against the Philadelphia Phillies who grade out poorly in most offensive metrics.

Looking for more MLB betting insights? Check our selection of the Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today.

Best NRFI Bets for Monday, June 8

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New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians - Will Warren vs. Gavin Williams (6:40 PM, EST)

Expect Gavin Williams to build on his momentum by neutralizing the New York Yankees top of their order while Aaron Judge is on the sideline.

Under 0.5 Run (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even when Aaron Judge was in the lineup, the reigning AL MVP could not help his team make contact at a more consistent rate with the New York Yankees ranking below league average in Hit Rate. Now with Judge on the sideline, the Yankees will struggle to open up the scoring early, making them vulnerable to falling into a prolonged scoring lull. Consequently, his extended absence is already forcing oddsmakers to drastically adjust the latest AL MVP odds.

Heading into Monday night, expect the Yankees struggles with making contact to continue to persist as they face off against the Cleveland Guardians Gavin Williams who is currently averaging a WHIP of 1.078 while generating less than one Hit Against per inning. Especially with Williams supported by a productive back end, surrounding him with a group who ranks in the top-10 in Fielding Percentage.

In an attempt to match Williams output, the Yankees roll out Will Warren who is currently averaging an ERA of 3.22 and a WHIP of 1.197. With the Guardians residing near the bottom of the board in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage, expect Warren to make quick work of the top of their order while painting and the strike zone and hold them scoreless in the first inning.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Cristopher Sanchez vs Patrick Corbin (7:07 PM, EST)

Patrick Corbin has a great opportunity to round back into form by exploiting Philadelphia’s struggles on offense.

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since joining the Toronto Blue Jays, Patrick Corbin has been able to play at a competitive level, kicking off his 2026 campaign with an ERA of 3.98. An impressive feat when factoring in the lack of coverage he receives from his outfield, masking a defense who ranks well below league average in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.

Fortunately for Corbin, he is in a favorable position to get off to a hot start on Monday night as he faces off against the Philadelphia Phillies who struggle with making contact per their bottom three mark in Hit Rate. Even if Corbin gets burned by an error, the Phillies inability to string together their Hits will help him keep them out of scoring position, increasing his chances of keeping a clean sheet.

On the other side of the field, Cristopher Sanchez has built a strong case for winning the NL Cy Young award, averaging an ERA of 1.46, a WHIP of 1.089, and a FIP of 1.79. With the Blue Jays also struggling to get on base, expect Sanchez to continue to create Whiffs at a high rate and exit the first inning without giving up a Run. These dominant performances are exactly why he is currently the clear favorite in the latest NL Cy Young odds.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels - Spencer Arrighetti vs. Grayson Rodriguez - With Houston sitting near the top of the board in Hit Rate, the Astros will be able to get into scoring position from the opening pitch by attacking Grayson Rodriguez who is averaging an ERA of 9.50 and a WHIP of 1.889.

• Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres - Andrew Abbott vs. Walker Buehler - Expect Runs to be scored in the first inning with the Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres facing off against a pair of arms who are averaging an ERA higher than 4.00 while generating less than one Strikeout per inning.

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