Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Two Obvious Candidates and Two Long Shots to Watch Tuesday

For home runs props, it usually helps to mix things up a bit, even within the same day. That’s what we did on Tuesday by targeting both obvious candidates and players one might consider sleeper picks. By doing so, we hope to have all of our bases covered and come away with some successful home run props.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Tuesday, June 16

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Home Run Picks for Tuesday, June 16

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on. 

Nick Kurtz Anytime Home Run (+220) at FanDuel Sportsbook

If Kurtz wasn’t red-hot before, he certainly is after going 3 for 5 with two home runs on Monday. He’s now in the midst of an eight-game hitting streak, one that includes seven home runs. Based on that, it’s hard not to take a chance on him going deep again on Tuesday. After all, he hit two home runs in a game earlier during his hitting streak, and followed that up with a home run the following day.

The pitching matchup also plays into Kurtz’s favor, as he and the A’s face Mitch Keller. Kurtz has just two at-bats against Keller, but one ended with a home run. Keller has also given up a home run in five of his last seven starts and has been hurt more frequently by left-handed hitters. In other words, all signs point to Kurtz staying hot.

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Matt Olson Anytime Home Run (+360) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Admittedly, this is an imperfect pick. Olson and the Braves face Adrian Houser on Tuesday, and it’s worth mentioning that Houser has had Olson’s number. He’s just 2 for 11 with no home runs in his career against Houser. That’s not the type of track record we like when targeting players for home run props.

That being said, Olson has 20 home runs this season, putting him among the league leaders. Plus, Houser has been terrible lately, failing to pitch five innings in four straight starts and giving up a home run in three straight starts, running up his ERA to 5.54. Plus, left-handed hitters are slugging .604 against him, hitting eight home runs against him, which makes Olson Atlanta’s most dangerous hitter on Tuesday. 

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Luis Garcia Anytime Home Run (+470) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Garcia definitely qualifies as a sleeper, with a modest nine home runs on the season. But he’s come on strong lately, getting a hit in five of his last six games, including a pair of home runs during that stretch. Garcia also has an excellent track record against Michael Wacha, who starts for the Royals, going 2 for 5 with a triple and a home run against him.

Normally, that track record wouldn’t mean that much. However, Wacha has had problems with the long ball this season, even with a 3.58 ERA. He’s given up 10 home runs this year, including three in his last four starts. The Nationals don’t have a ton of power hitters to take advantage of that, but Garcia is in a good position to do so.

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Alec Burleson Anytime Home Run (+520) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Most of the time, Burleson would be considered a deep sleeper, and the odds still reflect that. But he’s also one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. Burleson has a hitting streak that’s now up to 15 games and dates back to late May.

More importantly, Burleson has hit five home runs in his last seven games, so he’s worth taking a chance on Tuesday. Now is the time to strike, especially with the Cardinals set to face Michael King, who has become home run-prone lately, giving up six long balls over his last four starts. Burelson is 2 for 5 with a home run in his career against King, so everything is lined up in Burelson’s favor on Tuesday.

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