Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Finding the Right Pitchers to Victimize

When picking home run props, more times than not, we start with the pitcher and not the hitter. It’s all about finding pitchers who are more likely to give up home runs, and sometimes that’s likely to happen against a particular hitter. That was our strategy for Wednesday’s picks, and we think we found four great candidates to go deep.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Wednesday, June 17

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Home Run Picks for Wednesday, June 17

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on. 

Bryce Harper Anytime Home Run (+340) at FanDuel Sportsbook

We were right about Harper hitting a home run last Wednesday, so we’re going to double down and bet on him this Wednesday as well. Last week, Harper got the better of Max Scherzer, against whom he had a great track record, and the same can be said this Wednesday against Sandy Alcantara. Believe it or not, Harper is 14 for 44 (.318) with three home runs in his career against Alcantara.

Keep in mind that this hasn’t been Alcantara’s best season, as he owns a modest 4.25 ERA. More importantly, he’s been hit hard by the long ball frequently, already giving up 12 home runs. Left-handed hitters like Harper are responsible for nine of those 12 home runs, which is why we like Harper to continue his success against Alcantara despite his current slump.

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Jarren Duran Anytime Home Run (+390) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Speaking of Scherzer, he starts again for Toronto against the Red Sox on Wednesday. After the two home runs he gave up to the Phillies last week, he’s allowed nine home runs in just 22 innings pitched this season. A majority of those homers have been hit by left-handed hitters, so in hunting for a hitter on the Red Sox similar to Harper, we landed on Duran.

Duran is second on the Red Sox with 12 home runs, with all but one coming against right-handed pitchers. That makes him the ideal player to take Scherzer deep. While Duran has just one hit in six career at-bats against Scherzer, that one hit was a home run, which makes us think he’ll be a great option for Wednesday.

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Pete Alonso Anytime Home Run (+340) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Alonso has become one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the last week. Despite going hitless on Tuesday, Alonso is hitting .314 in June and had a six-game hitting streak going. Naturally, that also means that he’s hitting for a lot of power, with five home runs in June, including three in his last six games.

At the same time, Alonso has a surprisingly good track record against George Kirby, who starts for the Mariners on Wednesday. He’s 4 for 8 with two home runs in his career against Kirby. It’s a small sample, but it speaks volumes. Plus, Kirby hasn’t exactly been immune to the long ball this season, so there’s no way we can ignore Alonso.

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Carter Jensen Anytime Home Run (+250) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Jensen is anything but a common target for home run props. But he and the Royals are facing Zack Littell, so someone in Kansas City’s lineup has to be targeted. Littell’s problems giving up the long ball have reared their ugly head again, as he’s already given up 16 home runs in 2026. Left-handed hitters have done most of the damage, hitting 13 of those home runs and slugging .601 against Littell.

The problem is the Royals don’t have many left-handed power threats with Vinnie Pasquantino on the IL. That led us to Jensen, who has a solid eight home runs this year, all against right-handed pitchers. He also has an eight-game hitting streak, making him a good value pick given the matchup against Littell.

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