Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Backing Left-Handed Hitters This Holiday Weekend

We have an excellent slate of games for the 4th of July, providing some fantastic home run prop bet options. We believe the best bets lie with left-handed hitters, which is why all three of our predictions involve them today.

Below, we’ll share our top three home run predictions for today, along with why we love each one.

For more daily MLB coverage, check our selection of the Best NRFI Bets Today.

Best Home Run Predictions for Saturday, July 4

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Home Run Picks for Saturday, July 4

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on. 

Brice Turang Anytime Home Run (+560) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Crew’s Platinum Glove second baseman has seen his average dip in 2026, but he remains on pace to easily surpass his career-high home run total. He’s gone deep 12 times, and has been hitting the ball especially hard of late. In his last series, he had one home run and two doubles.

We’re taking Turang over some of the Brewers’ power hitters because Merrill Kelly (5-8, 5.84 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) is on the mound for Arizona. The 37-year-old is coming off a horrific June, going 0-5 with a 7.31 ERA over 28 ⅓ innings. He allowed a whopping eight home runs over that span, three of which came in his last start.

It’s important to note that Kelly’s struggles haven’t resulted in shortened outings. He’s gone at least five innings in ten straight outings, meaning the Brewers’ star should get at least two cracks at the struggling starter.

In ten career meetings, Turang is 4-for-10 with one home run against Kelly.

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Brandon Lowe Anytime Home Run (+310) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Lowe is on pace to have the best power-hitting season of his impressive career in 2026. He’s already registered 20 home runs and 57 RBIs, leading the Pirates in both categories. While his average dropped by 20 points in June, it didn’t stop him from adding another six home runs. His bat has gotten hot again at the start of July, giving us confidence to back him today. 

Another reason to back Lowe tonight is the Nationals’ pitching struggles. They’ll be sending Zack Littell (7-6, 5.29 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) out to start tonight. The righty has allowed the second-most long balls (22) this season and has surrendered seven over his last 15 ⅔ innings.

Littell’s worst struggles have come against left-handed hitters like Lowe, who own a .964 OPS against him this season. 

Once the veteran exits the game, he’ll be turning things over to one of baseball's worst bullpens. The Nats’ relievers have a 4.95 ERA and have allowed a league-high 62 home runs, nine more than the next-closest team.

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Rafael Devers Anytime Home Run (+215) at FanDuel Sportsbook

There are two reasons we are betting on Devers to go deep tonight.

The first is the slugger’s red-hot bat after he struggled for most of June. He enters this series batting .350 with three home runs and six RBIs over his last seven games. That’s a good sign as he heads to the most home-run-friendly park in MLB.

The second reason is Colorado starter Tomoyuki Sugano (8-4, 4.80 ERA, 1.32 WHIP). The 36-year-old has actually been sharp on the mound at Coors Field, but consistency remains an issue. While he went 4-0 across five starts (26 innings) in June, he allowed five home runs and posted a 6.58 ERA.

Devers saw Sugano for the first time last season and made a strong impression, going 3-for-3 with a home run. 

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