Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Aaron Who? There is a New Slugger Rising in The Big Apple

It seems the New York Yankees won’t be getting Aaron Judge back on the field anytime soon, but a new slugger has stepped into his place. Ben Rice is having an MVP-worthy campaign and is now on pace to hit well over 50 home runs this season. While the 27-year-old saw his bat cool off in June, it's once again scorching under the July sun.

Below, we’ll share why we love Rice’s chances to go deep tonight, along with two other home run predictions we love!

Best Home Run Predictions for Saturday, July 11

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Home Run Picks for Saturday, July 11

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on. 

Kody Clemens Anytime Home Run (+330) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Seemingly out of nowhere, 30-year-old Kody Clemens is having his breakout season. The first baseman earned a full-time spot in the lineup this season, and is already close to breaking his career records for RBIs and home runs. While his numbers may not earn him a spot in the All-Star Game, they do give us reason to consider him when placing home run prop bets.

One big reason we like Clemens today is his home play this season. He owns a .515 SLG percentage at Target Field, where he’s registered seven of his 16 home runs. Clemens has also been at his best against right-handed pitchers, which is good news heading into a matchup against Angels’ starter Ryan Johnson (1-4, 6.99 ERA, 1.55 WHIP). 

The Angels thrust Johnson into major league play right after drafting him last season, but the results haven’t been pretty. He appeared in 14 games in relief last season, totaling 14 ⅔ innings, and was hammered for a 7.36 ERA.  

His struggles mostly came against left-handed hitters like Clemens, who went 10-for-22 with three home runs, a .909 SLG, and a ridiculous 1.389 OPS. While he’s improved in 2026, the numbers remain far from pretty.

Considering Clemens opened July with three home runs and a .793 SLG over his first seven games, we love his chances to take advantage of the struggling young righty today.

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Ben Rice Anytime Home Run (+310) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Who needs Aaron Judge, anyway? Ben Rice has stepped up to become one of the league’s top power hitters in Judge’s absence, ranking third with 28 home runs. While he scuffled at the plate in June, the first baseman has bounced back in a big way in July. He’s batting .345 with five home runs and a .862 SLG over his first eight games, and we’re betting he adds to those totals tonight.

Washington starter Miles Mikolas (3-7, 5.78 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) hasn’t struggled with home runs much over his long career, but that’s changing in 2026. The 37-year-old has gotten things under control after a brutal start to the season, but he continues to give up long balls at an unusually high rate. The veteran has allowed 20 on the season, and six over his last four starts (22 ⅓ innings). 

Mikolas has started to see his season go off the rails once again over his last two outings. While he went for 13 combined innings, he allowed 13 earned runs and four home runs. 

If the aging starter manages to turn things around today, he’ll still have to turn things over to a Nationals' bullpen that’s allowed the most home runs in baseball (65) by a wide margin. 

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Kazuma Okamoto Anytime Home Run (+360) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Our last prediction is focused on value, which is why we’re digging a bit deeper to take Kazuma Okamoto today. The 30-year-old rookie continues to rake at the plate, posting 21 home runs and 59 RBIs. While his overall numbers aren’t stellar, he is coming off his best month, finishing with seven home runs, 20 RBIs, a .560 SLG, and a .913 OPS.

While San Diego’s Petco Park is notoriously unfriendly to hitters, Okamoto is coming off a series in which he went 4-for-14 with a pair of home runs at an equally difficult Oracle Park. 

Okamoto’s bat will have a great chance to stay hot tonight with the ever-erratic Walker Buehler (5-5, 5.07 ERA, .39 WHIP). The veteran seemed to be settling in after delivering elite numbers in June, but that success didn’t carry over into July. 

In two starts this month, he’s lasted just nine innings and allowed 16 earned runs and a whopping five home runs. One of those starts was at home, showing the pitcher-friendly park isn’t helping stop the starter’s slump. 

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