MLB MVP Odds: Can Pete Alonso Really Slug His Way to an NL MVP?

The 2023 MLB MVP races promise to be among the most exciting in recent memory. We have taken a deep dive into the NL and AL races to establish the current favorites and provide our MLB MVP predictions for this season. 

We have used our experience as life-long baseball fans and veteran sports bettors to study each race closely. We know the players in contention in-depth and what factors can raise or lower their chances of capturing the MLB's most prestigious award.

We’ll track MVP races and their odds from the best MLB betting sites all season to ensure we always provide the most updated information.

AL MVP Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

NL MVP Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Best MLB Betting Promotions

• DraftKings MLB 50% Profit Boost: This weekend's offer from DraftKings gives players a 50% profit boost on any MLB game on that given day. That means bigger payouts that could quickly boost your bankroll. Plus, the crowded weekend slate of games gives you plenty of great options to bet on. If you’re looking to bet on baseball, we recommend taking advantage of this fantastic offer.

• FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesdays: FanDuel is making it easy to earn free bets this season. Once you opt-in to this Tuesday promo, you simply need to bet for a home run to be hit in a particular game. For each one hit, you’ll receive a $5 bet credit (up to $25). We have seen plenty of home runs in 2023, making this one of our favorite promos of the season.

AL MVP Odds Analysis & Predictions

Another week, another bump in Ohtani’s (5-1, 2.91 ERA / .269 BA, 12 HR, 33 RBI, 7 SB) odds to be the 2023 AL MVP. He had another fantastic start last week, allowing one run and striking out ten over six innings against the Twins. His walk totals are still a bit of a concern, but not nearly enough to hurt his chances of winning the award. The Angels should be able to contend for a wild card, and a playoff berth would only make Ohtani’s case stronger. If you are looking for a sure-fire win, taking Ohtani as the 2023 AL MVP is the bet you’re looking for.

Aaron Judge (.286 BA, 14 HR, 33 RBI) did not have a great week, but he is still having a fantastic May. The reigning AL MVP has a .323 batting average, eight home runs, and 19 RBIs this month. He now ranks fourth in the league in home runs and second in OPS (1.013). Those numbers are impressive, but he’ll need more to overtake Ohtani in the MVP race. It took a historic season for him to win it in 2022, and it will likely take a similar effort to beat out Ohtani in 2023.

Yandy Diaz (.325 BA, 12 HR, 29 RBI) debuted in the top ten this week, the third Rays player to make the list. It’s no surprise, given his impressive numbers at the plate. Diaz is fifth in the league in batting average, tenth in home runs, and leads all of baseball in OPS (1.048) and on-base percentage (.429). Diaz also benefits from hitting atop the best lineup in baseball. If he can maintain his impressive numbers at the plate, you can expect his name to climb up this list as the season progresses.

Another new face on the top ten AL MVP favorite list is Bo Bichette (.335 BA, 11 HR, 37 RBI). The Toronto shortstop is having an incredible May where he has seen his numbers climb across the board. He is currently riding an eight-game hit streak, six of which were multi-hit performances. The 25-year-old Bichette appears to have taken another significant step forward in his fifth season. We’re not sold on him winning an MVP in 2023 but look for Bichette to be in the conversation for years to come.

Our Prediction: Shohei Ohtani (-135 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Ohtani continues to see his odds improve for this award, and we haven’t seen anything over the last week that makes us think differently. While his average could be better, he is slugging over .500 and leads the team in stolen bases, RBIs, and home runs. On top of that, he has now strung together two fantastic starts after struggling earlier this month. Unless he suffers a major injury, we don’t see anyone able to top him for the 2023 AL MVP.

Our Favorite Bet: Yordan Alvarez (+2500 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

While we believe Ohtani to be the heavy favorite, we still expect Alvarez (.288 BA, 12 HR, 46 RBI) to be the closest to catching him by the end of the season. The Astro’s slugger had a quiet week, but he still ranks tenth in the league in home runs, second in RBIs, third in OPS (.983), and ninth in on-base percentage (.402). His average dropped a bit this week, but he also ranks toward the top of the league in that category. That means he is bringing a lot to an Astros team that is finally starting to get going. If they win the AL West, we believe Alvarez will have a great chance at winning the AL MVP. 

NL MVP Odds Analysis & Predictions

Ronald Acuna Jr (.322 BA, 11 HR, 27 RBI, 22 SB) continues establishing himself as the heavy favorite to win the 2023 NL MVP. His ability to hit for power, average, and steal bases makes him a unicorn in modern baseball. The key this season will be if Acuna can maintain an impressive batting average, as he finished 2022 with a .266 average. His ability to get on base is why he is such a favorite to win the NL MVP, so he’ll need to keep that going to hold off the rest of the field.

Don’t look now, but Freddie Freeman (.333 BA, 9 HR, 32 RBI, 6 SB) is charging up this list. The Dodger first baseman owns a .381 batting average, a .451 on-base percentage, and a .701 slugging percentage in May. Freeman has seen a dip in his home run total again this season, but his ability to hit for average keeps his RBI totals high. He has the advantage of playing in the heart of a loaded Dodgers lineup, but we think he’ll need to add more home runs or RBIs to differentiate himself from Acuna and Pete Alonso in the race for NL MVP.

Pete Alonso (.239 BA, 20 HR, 46 RBI) dropped to third on this list, despite putting up three home runs and five RBI last week. He is the first player to have 20 home runs this season and has the second-highest RBI total in all of baseball. However, his inability to hit for average hurts his case for MVP. Alonso owns a .217 average in May, with just two multi-hit games during that span. He is one track to come close to Judge’s home run record from last season, but he will need to improve his average if he wants a chance to be this year’s MVP.

While Fernando Tatis Jr. (.254 BA, 9 HR, 18 RBI) saw his batting average take a hit in the second half of May, his numbers are still impressive. Especially considering he had missed over a year of baseball between injury and suspension. He is far behind Acuna, but Tatis’s early form shows he still has the tools to put up equally impressive numbers. If the Padres can turn their season around and Tatis continues to improve, he could easily be a finalist for the 2023 NL MVP.

Our Prediction: Ronald Acuna Jr (+100 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

We still have Acuna as our favorite to win the NL MVP. We talked about his impressive stats above, and we think they will work heavily in his favor with the HOF voters. If Acuna can put up 30 home runs and 60 stolen bases (both of which he is on track for), that would be something we haven’t seen in baseball in a long time. The voters respect baseball history, so Acuna putting up historical numbers could lock him in for NL MVP.

Our Favorite Bet: Bryce Harper (+2000 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

We didn’t discuss Harper (.321 BA, 3 HR, 8 RBI) above, but he is our favorite longshot to win the award. The former MVP missed the first month of the season with an injury, but he has been dialed in at the plate in May. His power has yet to return, but he has gotten on base in all but three of his games since returning. We know Harper can still hit for power, which means it is a matter of time before those numbers tick up. Once they do, these odds will lose a ton of value, which is why he’s our favorite bet for this week.

How to Read MLB MVP Odds

MVP futures odds work the same as any other bet. Each bet includes a number next to the team or player preceded by a plus or minus sign. 

A plus sign in front of the number usually indicates an underdog, but they are also common with futures bets. If the odds next to a team or player have a plus sign, that is the amount that you will win for every $100 you bet.

A minus sign usually indicates the favorite to win, though they are rarely seen for future bets. A minus sign in front of the odds means that is how much you need to bet to win $100.

For example, let's say you bet $100 on Pete Alonso +1500 to win the NL MVP. If he wins the award, you will win $1500. 

If you aren't looking to bet $100 at a time, don't worry! Check out our odds calculator to help you determine potential winnings based on different wager amounts.

Previous AL MVP Winners

Previous NL MVP Winners

More MLB Futures

• Rookie of the Year Odds 
• 2023 World Series Odds