Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Backing Two of the League’s Biggest Bats

We just have one game on the schedule tonight, but some of the league’s top sluggers will be in action. That means we have some fantastic home run prop bets to choose from, despite the lack of action. Below, we’ll share our top two home run predictions for tonight’s Mets vs. Phillies game.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Thursday, July 16

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Home Run Picks for Thursday, July 16

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on. 

Juan Soto Anytime Home Run (+200) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The 2026 All-Star has been the only reliable bat in a disappointing Mets lineup this season. He leads the team with 21 home runs, 51 RBIs, and a .967 OPS. That puts him on pace to have one of the best seasons of his Hall of Fame-worthy career, and we expect him to keep that going tonight.

While Soto’s power numbers took a dip in June (four home runs), that changed in July as he matched his previous month's home run total over the first eight games. While his average is down, his .388 OBP% and .553 SLG% more than make up for it.

The Mets’ star will be facing a familiar face on the mound to start tonight’s game. He has faced Aaron Nola (3-6, 5.75 ERA, 1.43 WHIP) 45 times and posted a 1.134 OPS with five home runs. With the struggling veteran allowing ten home runs over his last eight starts (40 ⅓ innings), we love Soto’s chances to take him deep again tonight.

Soto will also benefit from facing a struggling Philly bullpen. They rank in the bottom ten of the league in ERA (4.44) and have surrendered 41 home runs. 

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Bryce Harper Anytime Home Run (+280) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The two-time NL MVP showed flashes of his old self in June, batting .305 with seven home runs and 20 RBIs. While he began to scuffle shortly before the All-Star break, he remains on pace to hit over 30 home runs for the first time in five seasons. If he can bounce back in the second half, his NL MVP odds will quickly improve.

While playing in Philadelphia isn’t for everyone, Harper continues to thrive. He owns a .924 OPS at home this season, which drops to .808 when on the road. With Harper being able to remain in Philly for the All-Star Game and tonight’s matchup, the stage will be set for him to put up yet another big game.

Harper and the Phillies will be facing Christian Scott (2-1, 3.17 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) to start tonight’s game. The righty has been a revelation for New York this season, delivering impressive results across 54 innings. However, his success began to slow over his last four starts, during which he allowed six home runs over 18 innings. 

The starter has faced the pitcher just twice, and allowed Harper to go deep in one of those matchups. 

The Mets bullpen hasn’t been terrible, but their 53 home runs allowed put them in the bottom ten of the league. That means Harper will have solid chances to go deep throughout tonight’s game, making him an excellent home run prop bet. 

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