Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Expect Fireworks at Coors Field

For Tuesday, we’re subscribing to the cliché that the ball flies out of the ballpark at Coors Field. Both starting pitchers between the Nationals and Rockies are vulnerable to the long ball, and both teams are filled with power hitters. Of course, since the odds for those players are understandably low, we found excellent value elsewhere.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Tuesday, July 21

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Home Run Picks for Tuesday, July 21

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on. 

Jonathan Aranda Anytime Home Run (+470) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Aranda and the Rays are set to face Toronto’s Kevin Gausman on Tuesday. That’s good news for Aranda, who is 5 for 10 with a home run in his career against Gausman. That’s enough of a sample size to back him, despite Aranda hitting just one home run in July, although he has 14 on the season.

All but one of those home runs has come against right-handed pitchers, as Aranda is slugging .524 against righties. Gausman, meanwhile, has been vulnerable to the long ball for much of the season, giving up 15 home runs. Hitters from both sides of the plate have gotten the better of him at times, and Aranda has excellent value as a home run target.

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Austin Riley Anytime Home Run (+520) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Riley’s power has been diminished the past few seasons. He has just 12 home runs this year, which is low for a player who had three straight 30-plus homer seasons earlier this decade. However, he’s come out of the All-Star break swinging a hot bat, going 6 for 14 with three home runs. Based on that, it’s worth taking a flier on Riley staying hot.

On Tuesday, Riley and the Braves go up against Walker Buehler. After giving up five home runs in his first 15 starts of the season, Buehler has given up seven home runs in his last four starts, causing his ERA to balloon to 5.36. The kicker is that Riley is 7 for 18 with a double and a home run in his career against Buehler. Facing a struggling pitcher against whom he has a good track record is a good enough reason to take a chance on Riley.

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James Wood Anytime Home Run (+200) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Whenever the Nationals face a right-handed pitcher who’s vulnerable to the long ball, it’s a good idea to target someone on their roster. That’s the case on Tuesday with the Nats facing Michael Lorenzen, who has allowed 14 home runs in 97 innings of work this year, contributing to his 6.22 ERA. As a bonus, Wood and the Nationals are playing at Coors Field, adding to his home run potential. 

Granted, Wood has just one career at-bat against Lorenzen, so we can’t lean on history. But left-handed hitters have hit 10 of the 14 home runs Lorenzen has given up, slugging .589 against him. Wood has the most home runs and best slugging percentage against righties on Washington’s roster, making him the best option to take Lorenzen deep.

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Mickey Moniak Anytime Home Run (+255) at FanDuel Sportsbook

With Miles Mikolas starting for the Nationals, targeting someone on the home team at Coors Field also makes sense. He’s coming off a suspension, so this is his first start in 10 days. But whether he’s rusty or not, Mikolas has already allowed 20 home runs in 94.1 innings this season, so the thin air at Coors Field is likely to be a problem for him.

Hunter Goodman is the obvious choice, but his odds are too short, so we’ll take our chances with Moniak. He didn’t play on Monday and has never faced Mikolas in his career. However, the left-hand-hitting outfielder has hit 13 of his 15 home runs this year against right-handed pitchers, slugging .603 against righties. That’s a better slugging percentage against righties than Goodman, and with 12 of his 15 home runs coming at home, Moniak is our pick.

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