Best NRFI Bets Today: Fade the Reigning World Series Champions Against Zack Wheeler

Against the Philadelphia Phillies Zack Wheeler, negative regression looms large over the Los Angeles Dodgers, battling it out against an arm who excels at avoiding contact. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Cincinnati Reds and Seattle Mariners with both underwhelming offenses expected to get off to a slow start against a pair of pitchers who create Whiffs at a high rate.

Looking for more MLB betting insights? Check our selection of the Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today.

Best NRFI Bets for Tuesday, July 21

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Eric Lauer vs. Zack Wheeler (6:40 PM, EST)

If Philadelphia wants to close the gap on Atlanta, Zack Wheeler must neutralize the Los Angeles Dodgers offense to help the Phillies pull away on the scoreboard.

Under 0.5 Run (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After winning the World Series last year, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been able to sustain their high level of play this season, ranking near the top of the board in Hit Rate and in On Base Percentage. Their success on offense helps them reduce the amount of variance in their contests, increasing their chances of winning. As a result, their World Series odds remain among the best in baseball.

Unfortunately for the Dodgers, negative regression looms large in their matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies Cy Young contender Zack Wheeler, facing off against an arm who is averaging an ERA of 2.13, a WHIP of 0.892, and a FIP of 2.95. Especially with Wheeler creating Whiffs at a high rate, generating more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched. Given this level of dominance, it is no surprise that he currently boasts such highly favorable Cy Young odds.

On the other side of the field, Eric Lauer has been able to round back into form since joining the Dodgers, averaging an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.091 in 7 appearances. With the Phillies ranking well below league average in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics, Lauer will be able to build on his momentum by taking advantage of their lack of contact ability and keep a clean sheet in the first inning.

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Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners - Chase Burns vs. Luis Castillo (9:40 PM, EST)

Expect no Runs to be scored in the first inning between Cincinnati and Seattle with both lineups severely underwhelming on offense.

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After failing to break .500 the past few weeks of play, the Seattle Mariners have relinquished their lead in the AL West, sitting a 0.5 game back from the Texas Rangers for first. Their lack of production on offense has held them back from being a well rounded unit, ranking in the bottom half of the board in Hit Rate, RBIs, Runs Scored, and in OPS. Despite these offensive struggles, sportsbooks still view them as the favorite in the latest AL West odds.

Heading into Tuesday night’s contest against the Cincinnati Reds, the Mariners struggles on offense will continue to persist as they face off against Chase Burns who is averaging an ERA of 2.54 while giving up less than one Hit Against per inning. Especially with Burns’ back end excelling in coverage, surrounding him with a defense who ranks 12th overall in Defensive Efficiency.

While Burns has been able to thrive, the Mariners Luis Castillo has been unable to find his footing, entering the second half of the year with an ERA of 4.93 and a FIP of 4.16. Luckily for the Mariners pitcher, he will have a great opportunity to bounce back by taking advantage of a Reds offense who struggles with making contact per their bottom five mark in Hit Rate.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies - Miles Mikolas vs. Michael Lorenzen - With Michael Lorenzen on the mound, the Washington Nationals will be able to open up the scoring in the first inning by attacking an arm who is averaging an ERA higher than 4.00 while leading the NL in Hits Against.

• Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs - Framber Valdez vs. David Peterson - Expect the Chicago Cubs to get into scoring position from the opening pitch, battling it out against Framber Valdez who is averaging an ERA of 4.10, a WHIP of 1.319, and a FIP of 4.09.

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