Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Hitter-Pitcher Matchups Too Good to Pass Up

As usual, pitchers play a key role in our home run targets for Wednesday. We have the good fortune of having some of the starting pitchers most vulnerable to the long ball getting the start today. Likewise, we’ve found hitters who are either heating up after the All-Star break or have a strong track record against that pitcher. In some cases, we found both, making Wednesday’s home run targets rather simple.

For more daily MLB coverage, check our selection of the Best NRFI Bets Today.

Best Home Run Predictions for Wednesday, July 22

Odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for a FanDuel account and claim your bonus: Bet $5, Get up to $1,000 in Bet Resets. Read more about this offer in our FanDuel Promo Code overview.

If you are in a state where FanDuel is not yet legal, we recommend trying Kalshi, one of the best prediction markets in the US. Use Kalshi promo code WSN to sign up, trade $25, and get up to $500.

Home Run Picks for Wednesday, July 22

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on. 

Rafael Devers Anytime Home Run (+310) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It’s amazing that Devers is up to 20 home runs on the season after having just two at the end of April. He’s been remarkably consistent with his power since then, already hitting five home runs in July despite the All-Star break taking away half a week. Even if he’s just 2 for 27 over his last seven games, Devers is a threat with Seth Lugo on the mound Wednesday.

Devers has owned Lugo in his career. He’s 4 for 8, with two of those hits being home runs. That’s more than a little impressive considering how good Lugo has been for much of his career. It also helps that Lugo has had problems with the long ball this year. He’s allowed 15 home runs on the season, including five in just 20.1 innings in July, so he’s vulnerable.

Bet $5, Get up to $1,000 in Bet Resets at FanDuel

Luke Raley Anytime Home Run (+420) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Raley and the Mariners face Brady Singer on Wednesday. Singer has become one of those pitchers to bet against when it comes to home run props. He’s allowed 21 home runs on the season. Only six pitchers have allowed more home runs, and Singer has pitched fewer innings than most of them.

While Singer has been a little better at preventing the long ball recently, left-handed hitters remain a problem for him, as they are slugging .527 against him. Raley, in particular, has been a problem in the past. Raley is 5 for 10 with two home runs and a double against Singer. All 15 of his home runs this year have come against right-handed pitchers, so everything matches up for this bet.

Wager $5 and Unlock up to $1,000 in Bet Resets at FanDuel

Tyler Soderstrom Anytime Home Run (+430) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Soderstrom and the A’s will also benefit from a favorable pitching matchup on Wednesday. They face Merrill Kelly, who has also allowed 21 home runs this season. He’s allowed at least one home run in seven of his last nine starts, including four starts in which he’s allowed multiple home runs. Similar to Singer, left-handed hitters have done most of the damage, slugging .532 against him.

To be fair, Soderstrom is 0 for 3 in his career against Kelly. But that’s a small enough sample size to ignore. Soderstrom is 7 for 21 with two home runs in his last five games since the All-Star break, and he has three home runs in his last seven games. With Nick Kurtz on the IL, Soderstrom is the A’s best left-handed power hitter, making him a logical target against Kelly.

lace a $5 Bet and Get Covered with up to $1,000 in Resets

George Springer Anytime Home Run (+540) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Springer is undoubtedly on the backside of his career, but he still shows a little pop now and then. He has 10 home runs on the season, and he’s come out swinging a hot bat after the All-Star break, so this is one of the rare occasions it’s worth taking a flier on him. Springer is 6 for 15 with a double and a home run since the break, so he’s trending in the right direction.

Once again, the pitching matchup on Wednesday also works in his favor, as Griffin Jax starts for the Rays. Springer is 3 for 7 in his career against Jax, and two of those three hits have been home runs. It’s a small sample size, but it’s telling, and given how Springer has been swinging the bat lately and the value he offers, it’s worth taking a chance on him.

$5 Bet Gets You up to $1,000 in First-Bet Resets at FanDuel