Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Plenty of Proven Power Hitters Facing Vulnerable Pitchers

With several teams getting an off day on Monday, we decided not to overthink our home run props too much. We located a few starting pitchers who look vulnerable and targeted proven power hitters who are facing them. All four players we chose have over 20 home runs on the season, so while the value isn’t as high as some days, our confidence in this group is high.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Monday, July 27

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Home Run Picks for Monday, July 27

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on. 

Brandon Lowe Anytime Home Run (+340) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Lowe and the Pirates have the benefit of facing Merritt Kelly on Monday. Kelly has given up at least one home run in five straight starts, and the 22 home runs he’s allowed this year are more than any other starting pitcher who’s starting on Monday. That makes it a good idea to target someone on the opposing team.

The Pirates have some good options, but Lowe is always the top choice. He’s hit 17 of his team-high 21 home runs against right-handed pitchers, and outside of rookie Esmerlyn Valdez (who bats right-handed), Lowe has the highest slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers on Pittsburgh’s roster. Lowe is also 2 for 5 with a home run in his career against Kelly, so he also has past success against him, albeit in a small sample size.

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Luis Garcia Anytime Home Run (+330) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Max Scherzer makes a Washington homecoming on Monday, facing the franchise he won back-to-back Cy Youngs with and helped lead to a World Series title. The problem is that Scherzer is 41 and rocking a 10.23 ERA as he makes his return from the IL. In just 22 innings of action this season, Scherzer has allowed nine home runs, so it’d be foolish not to bet on at least one player on the Nationals going deep.

Of those nine home runs, six have been hit by left-handed hitters, who are slugging .661 against Scherzer. The challenge is that Washington has several left-handed power hitters who are all capable of taking Scherzer deep. Garcia doesn’t have as many home runs as James Wood or CJ Abrams, but a higher percentage of his home runs have come against right-handed pitchers, making him our top choice.

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Sal Stewart Anytime Home Run (+340) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Cleveland’s Slade Cecconi isn’t the biggest offender of giving up the long ball, but he’s not exactly a groundball pitcher either. He’s allowed 15 home runs this year, including three in just 13.1 innings thus far in July. Hitters from both sides have given Cecconi trouble, so we decided to target Stewart, who leads the team with 21 home runs this year.

The 22-year-old has enjoyed a true breakout season this year. He’s also in the midst of a four-game hitting streak that includes a home run. With five home runs in July, Stewart is showing no signs of slowing down during the second half. With 15 of his 21 home runs coming against right-handed pitchers, he’s more than capable of taking Cecconi deep.

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Willson Contreras Anytime Home Run (+340) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Contreras and the red-hot Red Sox have the privilege of facing Jack Perkins on Monday. The young righty has a 6.75 ERA on the season, but things have gotten worse in July. Across three starts this month, Perkins has allowed five home runs in just 11.1 innings, contributing to a 10.03 ERA in those three starts. Since the start of June, Perkins has given up at least one home run in seven of his eight starts.

Needless to say, we had to target someone on the Red Sox to hit a home run. Since Perkins has never faced Boston before, Contreras and his team-high 22 home runs felt like the safest choice. Contreras has by far the highest slugging percentage on Boston’s roster against right-handed pitching. He was crushing the ball during the team’s recent win streak, so we feel confident he can take Perkins deep.

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