Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Red-Hot Hitters You Might Have Overlooked

Wednesday is definitely a mixed bag in terms of home run targets. But we’ve found hitters who are either red-hot or having a favorable matchup that’s too good to pass up. These aren’t necessarily the most obvious candidates, but we have a lot of confidence in our four targets.

For more daily MLB coverage, check our selection of the Best NRFI Bets Today.

Best Home Run Predictions for Wednesday, August 5

Odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for a FanDuel account and claim your bonus: Bet $5, Get up to $1,000 in Bet Resets. Read more about this offer in our FanDuel Promo Code overview.

If you are in a state where FanDuel is not yet legal, we recommend trying Kalshi, one of the best prediction markets in the US. Use Kalshi promo code WSN to sign up, trade $25, and get up to $500.

Home Run Picks for Wednesday, August 5

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on. 

Matt Olson Anytime Home Run (+330) at FanDuel Sportsbook

At the moment, Olson gives us the perfect mix of a power hitter who’s swinging a red-hot bat. On the season, the former home run king has 31 home runs. But he’s also in a groove at the plate, going 7 for 14 with three home runs and a double over his last three games. He also has four home runs in his last seven games, so targeting Olson is striking while the iron is hot.

Even if he doesn’t have the easiest matchup, Olson holds plenty of value for a player with his profile. He and the Braves face young righty Eury Perez, who has actually been tougher on left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters this year. Lefties are batting just .190 with a .314 slugging percentage against him. But Olson is 3 for 8 against Perez, so he has a chance to stay hot at the plate.

Bet $5, Get up to $1,000 in Bet Resets at FanDuel

Jonathan Aranda Anytime Home Run (+320) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Aranda is another hitter who’s hitting up at the moment. While he has just one home run since late June, Aranda has gone 5 for 10 with a double over Tampa’s first two games at Coors Field this week. He also has a pitching matchup on Wednesday that suits him with Tomoyuki Sugano starting for the Rockies.

Sugano has allowed at least one home run in seven straight starts, giving up multiple home runs in three of his last four starts. On the season, left-handed hitters are responsible for 15 of the 21 home runs he’s given up. The Rays are lacking power hitters from the left side outside of Aranda, who has hit 13 of his 14 home runs this season against right-handed pitchers, so it seems like everything is aligned for him against Sugano.

Wager $5 and Unlock up to $1,000 in Bet Resets at FanDuel

Coby Mayo Anytime Home Run (+280) at FanDuel Sportsbook

While Mayo is hitting just .201 on the season, he does have 14 home runs. Ten of those home runs have come against left-handed pitchers in just 87 at-bats. That explains Mayo’s .690 slugging percentage against southpaws. That’s enough to take a chance on him on Wednesday against Reid Detmers, who starts for the Angels.

Detmers has put together a solid season, but the long ball has been a problem for him. He gave up seven home runs across his five starts in July, allowing at least one home run in five of his last six starts. Right-handed hitters have done most of the damage against him, and Mayo is surprisingly Baltimore’s best power hitter against lefties. 

lace a $5 Bet and Get Covered with up to $1,000 in Resets

Jeremy Pena Anytime Home Run (+630) at FanDuel Sportsbook

We hit on Pena when he homered last Wednesday, so we’re going to take another chance on him. Tuesday was actually the first time since the All-Star break that Pena didn’t get a hit. Nevertheless, he has raised his batting average 30 points and hit seven home runs in the 16 games since the break.

The kicker is that he and the Astros face Jameson Taillon on Wednesday. Pena is 5 for 11 with a couple of doubles in his career against Taillon, who has also been the worst starter in the big leagues at giving up home runs. Taillon has allowed 25 home runs in just 76 innings of work this season. In his last two starts since returning from injury, Taillon has pitched 8.1 innings and allowed five home runs. It’d be crazy not to target somebody facing him, and we chose the red-hot Pena.

$5 Bet Gets You up to $1,000 in First-Bet Resets at FanDuel