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Padres vs Dodgers Odds: Can Blake Snell Solve the LA Offense?

Written by: Michael Savio
Published September 13, 2023
11 min read
  • Blake Snell has allowed two earned runs over his last three starts
  • Ryan Pepiot owns a 0.86 ERA across four starts
  • The Padres have won four of Snell’s previous five starts

Padres vs Dodger Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook. See different MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!

TeamRun LineTotalMoneyline

Padres

+1.5 (-162)
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Over 9 (+100)
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+110
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Dodgers 

-1.5 (+136)
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Under 9 (-120)
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-130
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Padres vs Dodgers Picks

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Padres vs Dodgers Predictions

Padres vs Dodgers Predictions

We haven’t been betting many Dodgers games to hit the under, but we are tonight with Blake Snell on the mound. The ace has been one of the few bright spots for this disappointing Padres team, and he can undoubtedly shut down this monster LA offense. Combine that with the Dodgers sending their dazzling rookie to the mound, and you can see why DraftKings has the under at -120.

San Diego Padres Predictions

The Padres have been one of the most disappointing teams in the league. Their sky-high payroll includes several elite players, but they have not been able to translate that into wins. Instead, they are set to miss the playoffs and head towards what should be an active offseason. While their offense can still put up big numbers, we don’t think they’ll have the motivation or ability to figure out Ryan Pepiot tonight. 

Blake Snell (13-9, 2.52 ERA) is the biggest reason we are making this bet. The 30-year-old is having one of the best seasons of his career and is currently the betting favorite to win the 2023 NL Cy Young. Snell hasn’t allowed more than three runs since May 19, and he has allowed just two runs over his last three starts (19 innings). The lefty has started against LA three times this season, two of which were quality starts. As good as the Dodgers are, we think Snell is pitching too well for them to do much damage tonight.

The Padres offense has gone from bad to unpredictable in the second half of the season. However, most of their success has come against left-handed pitchers, which Ryan Pepiot is not. While the Dodgers starter is young, he has been far more consistent than the Padres offense, and we see him keeping them quiet tonight. 

Los Angeles Dodgers Predictions

The Dodgers took some time to get going in 2023, but they have now established themselves as one of the best teams in baseball. A big reason for that has been their offense, but another has been contributions from some of their younger pitchers. Their ability to have young starters step in as the LA rotation loses arms has been crucial, allowing them to keep pace with the Braves in the NL. They will have one of those young arms on the mound tonight, likely leading to a low-scoring battle with the Padres.

Ryan Pepiot (2-0, 0.86 ERA) may not be a name you know quite yet, but he has been pitching as well as anyone since joining the rotation on August 18. He has allowed just two runs and eight hits over 21 innings and is coming off his best start of the season. Pepiot dominated the Marlins last week, allowing just one hit and zero walks across seven scoreless innings. While the Padres lineup is filled with very dangerous hitters, they will be at a disadvantage facing the young starter for the first time. We see that leading to a quiet night and an easy cover of the under.

The Dodgers lineup is arguably the best in baseball. They feature several former MVPs and have scored the second-most runs in the league. However, several of those Dodgers have struggled against Snell in the past. Mookie Betts and JD Martinez have batting averages under .215 against the ace, and the rest of the lineup hasn’t been much better. Considering how well Snell has pitched and their history against him, we see a rare quiet night coming for the Dodgers lineup. 

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How to Watch Padres vs Dodgers

  • What: San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers
  • When: Wednesday, September 13 at 10:10 PM EST
  • Where: Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA
  • How to Watch: MLB.tv, Spectrum SportsNet
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AUTHOR

Michael Savio

423 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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