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Odds taken from bet365.
The bookmakers have made the decision for us this week by offering St Louis City SC highly valuable odds this week. FC Dallas are a good side, and they’re playing at home, but St Louis are the current Western Conference leaders and the in-form team in the league. They’ve scored 10 goals in their last three games, whereas FC Dallas are heading into this game with no wins in their last four league matches.
It’s strange that the bookmakers have Dallas as such an obvious favorites for this match. We looked at some of the odds listed by other bookmakers, and they’ve offered similar odds, so this isn’t an error on the part of the bookmaker.
A draw also offers a lot of value, but we think it’s best to go with a St Louis win because opportunities like this don’t pop up too often.
The two sides haven’t faced each other before, which adds another layer of intrigue to this match. This match was supposed to take place a month back but was postponed and is taking place this week.
Their lack of head-to-head encounters could’ve factored into the odds for this match. St Louis City SC will go through this all season, as they’re a new team in the MLS. Because of this, they’re likely to offer great value all season; bettors should certainly keep an eye out for most of their games this season.
FC Dallas’ poor form continued with a 2-1 loss to Nashville SC over the weekend. This was their fourth league game in a row without a win and second league loss in a row. They also lost this match at home, which made matters worse.
Nolan Norris was unfortunate to put the ball into his own net in the ninth minute before Jader Obrians 25th-minute strike settled things down for FC Dallas. There wasn’t a lot between the two sides for long periods before Hany Mukhtar’s 77th-minute goal decided the game.
FC Dallas had 49% of the possession but took 14 shots to Nashville’s seven, but both sides took just three shots on goal. FC Dallas desperately needed a win to get their season back on track, but it ended up being another day to forget. It’s not going to get any easier against an in-form St Louis side.
Despite their lack of form in recent weeks, Jesus Fereira remains a big positive for FC Dallas. Ferieria made a breakthrough last season with 18 goals in the league. Some pundits and fans doubted if he was just a flash in the pan or a one-season wonder, but his performances this season confirm that he’s the real deal.
He has scored nine goals so far and has been available for every game this season. He has an expected goal value of 6.3 currently, which suggests that he’s overperforming a little, but this is still a high expected goal value, so we can expect him to get around 18 goals this season as well.
Fereira’s value doesn’t just come from his goals, either. He’s just 22 years old, so he adds a lot of energy to the frontline. He defends from the front, is a decent passer of the ball, and can carry the ball long distances. In many ways, he’s the complete package.
FC Dallas need to keep him at the club for as long as possible because European teams will certainly keep an eye out for him. They also need to build the team around him because he's the sort of talent that can win FC Dallas all the big prizes like the MLS, CONCACAF Champions League, and US Open Cup.
He’s also a vibrant personality and has shown some leadership qualities. As long as he’s in the side, FC Dallas will have a chance of win matches against any opposition.
St Louis City SC won their third league match in a row with a 3-0 win over Houston Dynamo. They got off to the perfect start by scoring from the penalty spot in the ninth minute; Eduard Lowen made no mistake from the spot.
Tomas Astrik made it 2-0 in the 51st minute before they were awarded another spot kick late in the game. Nicholas Gioacchini was the scorer this time (81’). It wasn’t the most straightforward win as St Louis City conceded 16 shots on goal and 52% of the possession, but they were extremely clinical on the day.
They took 11 shots on goal with five on target. Of course, the penalties helped, but the penalties were a consequence of putting the Houston Dynamo under pressure.
There was a lot of pre-tournament talk about how St Louis will need a while to get used to the MLS, but they’ve made a mockery of that discourse. Of course, LAFC have a few games to spare and could overtake them, but that shouldn’t take away from just how good St Louis have been this season.
The underlying numbers suggest that they’ll have a drop off at some point but the points they’ve accumulated early in the season should be enough to help them qualify for a playoff spot, which was their aim at the start of the season.
No Western Conference team has scored more than their 32 goals this season, with 10 of them coming in the last three matches. It seems like teams are still getting used to playing against them and haven’t quite figured them out yet. Whatever happens going forward, St Louis’ season is already a success.
In the other conference, Cincinnati FC are leading the table. This shows that teams don’t need a lot of time to succeed in the MLS. If they get their recruitment right, have a passionate fanbase, and proactive owners, anything is possible.
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With an interest in strategy and mathematics, applying that to sports writing was the natural progression. A writer at night and the founder of a gaming company, Nikhil’s previous experience includes working with ESPN for five years. His specialization includes soccer, basketball, tennis, and esports betting. Email: [email protected]More info on Nikhil Kalro
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