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Image for Varun Shetty Varun Shetty - Updated October 14, 2022

MLS Top Goal Scorer: Who's the Favorite?

  • The race to be crowned MLS top goalscorer is hotting up
  • The MLS 2022 season began on 26 February and will end on 9 October, 2022 
  • We’re in the final third of the regular season 

The MLS 2022 season is about halfway done, and we’re beginning to see a clear picture of who will go on to challenge for the playoffs and who will be favorites to go onto win the MLS Cup. Alongside that, of course, favorites for the top MLS goalscorer have begun emerging.

Last season’s golden boot winner, Valentin Castellanos, has left New York City FC on loan to La Liga side, Girona. Castellanos’ departure has heated things up in the battle to become MLS 2022 season’s top scorer. The odds suggest that Austin FC’s Sebastian Driussi is by some distance the favorite to end the MLS 2022 season with most goals.

MLS Top Scorer 2022/23 Odds

The odds for the MLS top scorers 2022/23 are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Player  Odds
Sebastian Driussi +180
Brandon Vazquez +550
Jeremy Ebobisse +800
Jesus Ferreira +800
Hany Mukhtar +800
Cristian Arango +1600
Taxiarchis Fountas +1800
Carlos Vela +2500
Daniel Gazdag +2500
Lewis Morgan +3500
Diego Rubio +3500
Javier Hernandez +3500
Paul Arriola +4000
Lucas Cavallini +4000
Romell Quioto +4000
Gonzalo Higuain +5000
Jesus Jimenez +5000
Leonard Campana +5000
Ercan Kara +5000
Raul Ruidiaz +5000
Ola Kamara +5000

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Mls Top Goal Scorer

Austin FC’s Sebastian Driussi leads the odds table at this stage, and by some distance with his 16 goals. He is also the main source of goals for his team, which is why this is unlikely to change. The only worry here would be that Austin FC have had some good fortune if we look at the underlying numbers.

According to FBref via Statsbomb, Driussi’s 16 goals have come from an expected goal (xG) value of 10.5. Where there are question marks about how long Driussi can sustain this form, there aren’t as many question marks around Brandon Vazquez’s goalscoring, who is third on the table but just below Driussi in the top scorers list with 14 goals. He has an xG of 11.5, which suggests that he’s overperforming only slightly and his returns are far more sustainable.

Who Are Value Picks For MLS Top Scorer?

Hany Mukhtar and Michael Ebobisse have also got great odds with 13 goals each so far in the season. Ebobisse’s odds aren’t as high because he’s leading the line for the struggling San Jose Earthquakes.

Mukhtar doesn’t have this issue. His 13 goals have come for a Nashville side that looks set to make the playoffs and he’s also got an xG of 13.3. Don’t be surprised if he finds the back of the net even more regularly to cover for his slight underperformance. Just as encouraging a sign for Mukhtar is that he’s getting on the end of good shots far more than his competitors for the MLS top scorer race.

The table includes lots of other names but the four names but one of the four names discussed in this section are most likely to end the season as MLS top scorer.

If you would like to find out more betting options for the MLS 2022/23 season, read our guide on how to bet on soccer.

Who Were the Top MLS Scorers In 2021-22?

Player  Goals
Valentin Castellanos (New York City FC) 19
Ola Kamara (DC United) 19
Javier Hernandez (LA Galaxy) 17
Raul Riudiaz  (Seattle Sounders) 17
Damir Kreilach (Real Salt Lake) 16
Adam Buksa (New England Revolution) 16
Hany Mukhtar (Nashville SC) 16
Daniel Salloi (Sporting Kansas City) 16
Gustavo Bou (New England Revlution) 15
Johnny Russell (Sporting Kansas City) 15

Who Are the All-Time MLS Top Goal Scorers?

Player Odds
Chris Wondolowski 171
Landon Donovan 145
Jeff Cunningham 134
Kei Kamara 134
Jaime Moreno 133
Bradley Wright-Phillips 117
Ante Razov 114
Jason Kreis 108
Dwayne De Rosario 104
Taylor Twellman 101

Which Players Have Finished as MLS Top Scorers In The Last 10 Season?

Year Player Goals
2021 Valentin Castellanos (New York City FC) 19
2020 Diego Rossi (LAFC) 14
2019 Carlos Vela (LAFC) 34
2018 Josef Martinez (Atlanta United) 31
2017 Nemanja Nikolić (Chicago Fire) 24
2016 Bradley Wright-Phillips (NY Red Bulls) 24
2015 Sebastian Giovinco (Toronto FC) 22
2014 Bradley Wright-Phillips (NY Red Bulls) 27
2013 Camilo (Vancouver Whitecaps) 22
2012 Chris Wondolowski (San Jose Earthquakes) 27

MLS Top Scorer FAQ

Who Has Finished as MLS Top Scorer Most?

Prior to 2005, there was a points system when awarding the MLS golden boot award for goals and assists. We’ll only be looking into the stats post-2005 for this. Only three players post-2005 have been MLS top scorer on more than one occasion and they are Jeff Cunningham, Chris Wondolowski and Bradley Wright-Phillips. All three of them were MLS top scorers on two occasions. Taylor Twellman has also won the award twice, having won it once pso-2005 and once prior to it in 2002.

What Is the Most Goals Scored in MLS In a Season?

Mexican forward Carlos Vela holds the record for the most goals in a single MLS campaign. He scored 34 goals for Los Angeles FC in the 2019 MLS season. The left-footed forward, who can play anywhere on the front-line, has been one of the best players in the MLS for the last few seasons and will be hoping to win his first MLS Cup this season.

When Is MLS Top Scorer Announced?

The MLS top goal scorer will be awarded the MLS Golden Boot award, also known as the Audi Golden Boot award. The award is handed to the player who scores the most goals during the regular season. The winner will be confirmed after all the regular season matches are played.

How Can I Watch Major League Soccer on TV?

If you’re based in the United States, you can watch MLS on any of the following broadcast partners’ channels:

  • ABC
  • ESPN/ESPN2/ESPN Deportes
  • Fox/FS1/FS2/Fox Deportes
  • UniMás/Univision/TUDN

In Canada, you can watch the MLS on these networks:

  • TVA/TVA Sports
  • DAZN

Kick-off times usually range from 6.00 PM to 8.30 PM (EST).

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Image for Varun Shetty


Varun Shetty

207 Articles

Varun is a web journalist who has been writing on sports for 13 years. He took a shine for the MLS during the 2021 season and has been following it and writing about it since, alongside his work involving the English Premier League, La Liga, and the Serie A. He is deeply interested in soccer analytics and strategy and has aspirations to move into coaching at some point. Email: [email protected]

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