MLS Top Goal Scorer: Who's the Favorite?

  • Jesus Ferreira of FC Dallas is the favorite to end the season as the top goalscorer for MLS 2022
  • Valentin Castellanos has long odds but is a value pick because he is likely to be in the tournament longer than some others
  • Jeremy Ebobisse is having a great season but isn’t likely to enjoy too much quality service consistently through the season

MLS Top Goal Scorer Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Player Odds
Jesus Ferreira +600
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Jeremy Ebobisse +800
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Sebastian Driussi +900
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Javier Hernandez +1000
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Jesus Jimenez +1000
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Carlos Vela +1200
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Valentin Castellanos +1400
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Raul Ruidiaz +1600
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Brandon Vazquez +1600
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Hany Mukhtar +1600
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Ola Kamara +1800
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MLS Top Goal Scorer Overview

We’ve got another exciting MLS season on our hands and there’s nothing more exciting in the game of football than goals. Last season, New York City FC’s Argentinian forward, Valentin Castellanos, and DC United’s Ola Kamara topped the goalscorers list with 19 goals each but the New York City FC man won the prestigious golden boot award for picking up more assists in the tournament.

Castellanos’ goals powered New York City FC to the MLS championship and they’ll be hoping he can do the same this time around but the odds don’t have him as anywhere close to being the favorite for this year. A lot of familiar names are still in the running but the highest goalscorers from last season have got six other names ahead of this time.

The race for the golden boot should be a great addendum to the MLS championship this season with no runaway leader at the moment.

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MLS Top Goal Scorer

MLS 2022 Top Goal Scorer Predictions

There are quite a few players worth looking into like Philadelphia Union’s Daniel Gazdag who isn’t even on the table but has a good expected goal value of 6.1 with 7 goals and plays for a side that’s likely to go quite far. Ferreira would be the safe pick at the moment because he’s in great form but the smart money would be on Castellanos to retain his crown for another season. He’s got so many factors from underlying numbers, spot kick, penalties, strong team and a decent start to the season going for him.

The likes of Driussi shouldn’t be this far up and Ebobisse has done well for a struggling side but doesn’t expect them to end the season with the golden boot. This one is Ferrera and Castellanos’ to lose.

Favorites to Win the MLS Top Goal Scorer Title

Jesus Ferreira (+600)

Ferreira has come into his own this year and is the current favorite to win the MLS Golden Boot. Already on nine goals and expected to make the playoffs, the 21-year-old son of David Ferreira is having a breakthrough campaign for FC Dallas.

He wasn’t too bad last year either with eight goals and eight assists but has already beaten his goal record for this year, which goes to show the leaps he has made this season. According to Fbref via Statsbomb (all underlying stats from here on will be used from this site), he also has the highest non penalty expected goal count of 6.8. He is overperforming a bit right now but no one has got into better areas to score the goals than the American.

Sebastian Driussi (+900)

Austin FC’s Argentine star is also quite high on the favorites list but this is a bit of a surprise in all honesty. Like Ferreira, Driussi has also made a big leap this season. Scoring only five goals last season, Driussi is surely going to double that soon with eight goals under his belt already. One thing that Driussi has got in his favor that the likes of Ferreira don’t is that he’s on penalties and free kick duties.

He has scored five of his goals from these situations and the tally is likely to go up with Austin FC very likely to make the playoffs. However, his non-penalty expected goals value is just at 4.5 at the moment. It’s hard to find a lot of success from free kicks. This wouldn’t be the smartest bet going forward.

MLS Top Goal Scorer Value Picks

Jeremy Ebobisse (+800)

Another player having a career best season, Ebobise left the Portland Timbers for a more important role and has shined for the San Jose Earthquakes. He’s tied with Ferreira for 9 goals at the moment. He’s scored one penalty and one free kick but has still depended mostly on open play for his 7 goals. He has a non-penalty expected goal value of 5.8, which means that this is fairly sustainable finishing. The problem for Ebobisse is that he doesn’t play in a great team, which will make chances hard to come by and won’t likely be making the playoffs.

Javier Hernandez (+1000)

A man who has played for European giants like Real Madrid and Manchester United and is now playing for the most successful franchise in MLS history will always be in the running for these races. However, there isn’t much to suggest he’ll actually win the golden boot.

Hernandez was a poacher in his heyday and remains one to this day. He’ll get on the end of good chances constantly, which is great but hasn’t always been the best of finishers. He has scored six goals so far with a very good non penalty expected goal value of 6.2. You’re not likely to see him over-perform on his underlying numbers. There are better options.

Valentin Castellanos (+1400)

By far the best value pick, he leads the expected goals margin by some distance at 8.9 and has the second-highest non penalty expected goal value of 6.8. He has scored seven goals so far this season, which means he’s still in the running and is also New York City FC’s designated penalty and free kick taker. The odds on offer are excellent and it’d be foolish to not bet on the Argentinian. He also plays for a side that’s likely to go into the competition if not all the way.

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Varun Shetty WSN

Expert on Soccer

Varun is a web journalist who has been writing on sports for 13 years. He took a shine for the MLS during the 2021 season and has been following it and writing about it since, alongside his work involving the English Premier League, La Liga, and the Serie A. He is deeply interested in soccer analytics and strategy and has aspirations to move into coaching at some point. Email: [email protected]