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Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City SC Prediction: Fantastic Match Between Two of the Best in the League

Written by: Nikhil Kalro
Published July 11, 2023
11 min read
  • LAFC host St. Louis City SC this Wednesday at BMO Stadium. LAFC head into this match as favorites despite being five points behind St Louis. 
  • LAFC have been in poor form since their CONCACAF Champions League final loss earlier in the season. 
  • St. Louis City SC are a bit fortunate to sit on top of the Western Conference table if we consider the underlying numbers. It’ll be interesting to see if they can sustain this for the rest of the season. 

This should be a fantastic match between two of the best teams in the league. This piece will preview the match and provide a betting pick and tips for your consideration. 

Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City SC Odds

Odds taken from bet365

Game resultOdds
Los Angeles FC-179
St Louis City SC+440

Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City SC Pick

Los Angeles FC vs St Louis City SC prediction

Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City SC Predictions

This is one of the highly-anticipated games of the week. LAFC and St Louis are two of the top sides in the Western Conference, so it’s bound to provide some fireworks. LAFC are the defending MLS champions but have gone down a level this season. Despite that, they’re still in the hunt to finish as the Western Conference’s top side. 

Accomplishing that will be much smoother if they can get three points against St Louis City SC: the surprise of the season. This is St Louis City SC’s first season in the league, but they’ve taken to the league like a duck to water. It seems like teams are still attempting to figure them out, but that shouldn’t take away from what they’ve already accomplished. 

LAFC are the home side, which counts for something, but they’ve been in poor form: you just can’t hang your hat on them right now. St Louis have great odds for this match, but facing LAFC is always one of the hardest matches of the season, so a draw seems like the most likely outcome. The odds are great as well, so we suggest picking this outcome. 

Previous Meetings

The two sides have never faced each other in the league, which will add another layer of intrigue to this match. When the two sides faced each other in the MLS Next Pro competition, St Louis City won 5-3 on penalties after the match ended 2-2 after extra time. 

The teams didn’t play their strongest sides on the day, so this game will play out very differently, but St Louis City will definitely have a psychological edge heading into this tie. If the upcoming game is as good as the last match between these two teams, fans should be in for a cracking game of soccer. 

LAFC Draw 10-men San Jose Earthquakes

LAFC had another underwhelming result over the week, drawing 1-1 against the San Jose Earthquakes. It was the sort of performance and result that’s become all too familiar for LAFC fans this season. 

LAFC went down in the 30th minute via a Cristian Espinoza goal but leveled the scores just seven minutes later after Denis Bouanga made no mistakes with his spot-kick. The San Jose Earthquakes gave LAFC a free hit after Daniel was sent off in the 56th minute, but LAFC failed to capitalize. 

They took 14 shots to San Jose’s nine, with six shots on target and 64% of the possession. They were also playing at home but couldn’t get the job done. It was a great chance for LAFC to close the gap between themselves and St Louis, but now they have far too much to do against St Louis in midweek, which isn’t ideal before heading into a big tie. 

Hard to Pinpoint at What’s Gone Wrong Lately 

LAFC haven’t won their last five league meetings. The draw against San Jose ended a three-match losing streak, and their last win came against a strong Seattle Sounders side. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if they got the better of Western Conference leaders, St Louis City SC, this week, but it would be equally unsurprising if St Louis would hand them a battering later in the week. 

The underlying numbers look pretty good: they’ve got the second-best expected goal difference in the league. This suggests that they’ve got a good balance between attack and defense – not as good as last season – but it’s still pretty good. Of course, sitting in third place on the Western Conference table is far from disastrous, but more is expected of the defending champions. 

They had everything in place to win the match against San Jose over the weekend but just couldn't get over the line. It seems like the team has lost some focus after going at full tilt for the last 18 months. They won the MLS championship in the most dramatic fashion last season, and they did this by playing hard but also by adding the superstar quality of Giorgio Chiellini and Gareth Bale. Bale’s departure shouldn't really have affected their league campaign because they were the best team last season, even before his late arrival. 

They then competed fiercely in the CONCACAF Champions League (CCL) but fell at the last hurdle. It’s hard to explain this drop-off, but it wouldn’t come as a surprise if we learn later in the season that the team lost some of its fire during this period due to the CCL final loss. Last season, Seattle Sounders went through a similar dip after putting all their efforts into winning the CCL. Anyway, they shouldn’t lack motivation this week against a new Western Conference rival. 

Aziel Jackson Goal Settles Tie Against Toronto FC

Aziel Jackson’s 50th-minute strike earned St Louis City SC all three points against Toronto FC over the weekend. They took 17 shots to Toronto’s 12, with six on target to Toronto’s three despite having just 37% of the possession. We think they were well worth all three points in the end. 

St Louis City SC are now three points ahead of Seattle Sounders with a game to spare and five points ahead of LAFC, which gives them some breathing room heading into the upcoming match against the defending champions. The underlying numbers suggest that St Louis City are just the fifth-best team in the Western Conference. Much of this is based on their exposed defense, but this doesn’t take into account how good goalkeeper Roman Burki has been this season. 

The former Dortmund goalkeeper is a cut above the rest of the league in the goalkeeping department and has been one of the smartest signings in recent years. MLS teams tend to spend a lot of money on outfielders from Europe but don’t invest enough in top European goalkeepers. Burki’s purchase will certainly awaken all the other sides in the league to the value of a top goalkeeper. Burki’s value will most certainly be clear in the knockouts, where there’s little margin for error, but it has also been clear in the league. 

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How to Watch Los Angeles FC vs St. Louis City SC

  • Teams: Los Angeles FC vs St Louis City SC
  • Location: BMO Stadium
  • Time: Wednesday, July 12 at 7:30 pm EST onwards
  • How to watch: Apple TV
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Nikhil Kalro

681 Articles

With an interest in strategy and mathematics, applying that to sports writing was the natural progression. A writer at night and the founder of a gaming company, Nikhil’s previous experience includes working with ESPN for five years. His specialization includes soccer, basketball, tennis, and esports betting. Email: [email protected]

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