When you sign-up through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more >
Odds taken from BetMGM.
Boosted parlays with enhanced odds
Impressive range of bets
$10 free bet every week
Get $1,500 in Bonus Bets!
21+ | Terms and conditions apply
This is one of the most highly-anticipated games of the weekend. Seattle Sounders and Houston Dynamo have been two of the best sides in the Western Conference this season. If Houston Dynamo win this match, they’ll lead the Seattle Sounders by one point on the Western Conference table, with a game to spare.
Seattle Sounders are the home side, but they’ve not got three points in their last five league matches, whereas Houston Dynamo have won two matches against LAFC this month, beaten San Jose 4-1, and lost 3-0 to Austin FC; they’re a bit unpredictable.
Seattle Sounders have been a bit unfortunate not to get the points in recent matches, whereas Houston Dynamo have been a bit lucky. We think that things will even out in this match: Seattle Sounders will get the better of the Dynamo and hold onto third place.
There isn’t a lot of value in picking the Sounders, but they’re too good a side – this barren run won’t last forever, and everything’s set up perfectly for them to go back to winning ways this weekend.
Seattle Sounders have a far superior head-to-head record, with 15 wins, seven draws, and five wins in 27 matches. This isn’t surprising, considering how dominant the Seattle Sounders have been in the last decade.
The last match between the two sides occurred in May, with the Sounders winning 1-0 via an 87th-minute goal from Paul Rothrock. Houston Dynamo did well not to concede a goal for that long, as they had two players sent off in the match: Amine Bassi (21’) and Hector Herrera (78’).
The Sounders took 12 shots on goal and conceded just three all game, with 73% of the possession, but it was a frustrating match for the longest time. It was a concerning performance from the Dynamo, who showed incredible indiscipline on the day. If they repeat something similar this weekend, they’ll get a hammering; the home advantage helped them hold onto a respectable scoreline – they don’t have that this weekend.
Seattle Sounders had to settle for another frustrating result over the weekend, with a 0-0 draw against Orlando City. This was their fifth league game without a win. They took 16 shots on goal, conceded 13, and had 44% of the possession, so there wasn’t much between the two sides.
They’re still in the running for first place in the Western Conference, which shows just how competitive the conference has been, but the lack of results in recent weeks will be a bit concerning.
Seattle Sounders have been a bit unfortunate not to get points on the board in recent weeks. Their underlying numbers are the best in the Western Conference: they have the highest expected goal value, third-best expected goal value, and the best-expected goal differential. Even LAFC can’t claim to have this going for them. LAFC had the best underlying metrics in the Western Conference before going on to win the MLS, so having good underlying numbers is usually a good sign.
The expected goal differential value is the most important here, as it suggests that they’ve got a good balance between attack and defense. Jordan Morris’ form has been another plus for the Sounders; he has scored nine goals so far this season and is one of the many forwards in contention for the golden boot award.
Teams with solid underlying numbers tend to go on a run eventually; everything suggests that they’re ready to go on a run after an unusual June. They’re also playing a team that overperformed in the last month, so this is the perfect game to show the difference in quality between the two sides.
Houston Dynamo’s winning run came to an end with a 3-0 loss to Austin FC over the weekend. Austin FC were quite comfortable for most of the game. Ethan Finlay kicked things off with a 22nd-minute strike before Gyasi Zardes joined him 10 minutes later to make it 2-0. Julio Cascante ensured that there was no way back for Houston Dynamo by adding a third five minutes into the second half.
Houston Dynamo had 48% of the possession and took the same number of shots on goal as Austin FC (10), but this doesn’t highlight just how poor Houston Dynamo were in the first half. They’ve had a fantastic month with some big wins, but this loss will sting for a while.
Houston Dynamos’ 4-0 win over LAFC earlier in the month shocked everyone, but most fans and experts believed that it was just a one-off; however, they managed to beat them 1-0 a week later, which got everyone to change their tune about them.
There are freak results every season in most football leagues, and the 4-0 win had all the hallmarks of one, and the second win involved a red card. So as much as Houston Dyanmo deserve credit for beating the MLS champions twice this season, we need to look a bit deeper before coming to big conclusions about them: a league is a marathon, not a sprint.
There has been a lot of good fortune in Houston Dynamo’s rise to the top-four this season – their expected goal differential is the fourth-worst in the league. In fact, it’s in the negatives, which shows just how lucky they’ve been all season. We don’t think they’ll be able to continue like this for long, and the Seattle Sounders seem like just the team to put this fairytale run to an end. The result against Austin FC last week was more in line with the level of their performances this season.
Free play options
Special contests for newbies
Bet $5 Get $200 in Bonus Bets
21+ | Terms and conditions apply
Wide range of betting options
Top notch customer service
Promo Code 'SPORTS'
$500 Free Bet
21+ | VA only | Gambling problem? Call 1-800-532-3500
AUTHOR
Nikhil Kalro
587 Articles
With an interest in strategy and mathematics, applying that to sports writing was the natural progression. A writer at night and the founder of a gaming company, Nikhil’s previous experience includes working with ESPN for five years. His specialization includes soccer, basketball, tennis, and esports betting. Email: [email protected]
More info on Nikhil Kalro
© Rebel Penguin ApS 2023 (a subsidiary of Gaming Innovation Group Inc.)
We support responsible gambling. 21+ Only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.
WSN.com is run by iGaming Cloud Inc (a Gaming Innovation Group Subsidiary) and is registered with the New Jersey
Division of Gaming Enforcement (DGE) under affiliate vendor ID
89744,
with the Indiana Gaming Commission (IGC) under certificate of registration number SWR-000148, approved by
the
Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board as a gaming service provider, under certificate registration number
117656-1,
possesses a Vendor Minor sports betting license from the Colorado Limited Gaming Control Commission (account
number 94414163), granted a vendor registration number VR007603-20-001 by the Michigan Gaming Control Board,
an
interim Sports Wagering Supplier license, under license number SWS 066, issued by the West Virginia Lottery
Commission, a sports betting vendor registration, under registration number #100400, issued by the Director
of
Gaming Licensing and Investigations of the Virginia Lottery to operate in the State of Virginia, and a
Vendor
Registration issued by the Sports Wagering Committee of the Tennessee Education Lottery Corporation.
Advertising disclosure: WSN contains links to online retailers on its website. When people click on our
affiliate links and make purchases, WSN earns a commission from our partners, including ESPN and various
sportsbooks.