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Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo Odds: Seattle Sounders Should Go on a Run Soon

Written by: Nikhil Kalro
Published June 30, 2023
11 min read
  • Seattle Sounders host Houston Dynamo this Saturday at Lumen Field. The Sounders enter this game as the clear favorites, as they’re the home side. 
  • Seattle Sounders haven’t won a league game since the end of last month despite putting in decent performances. A win on the weekend could change the trajectory of their season. 
  • Houston Dynamo have had a strange June; there were some big wins, but they lost their league match 3-0 to Austin FC. 

Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo Odds

 Odds taken from BetMGM.

Game result

Odds

Seattle Sounders

-128

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Draw

+260

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Houston Dynamo

+320

BET HERE

Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo Pick

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Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo Prediction

Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo Predictions

This is one of the most highly-anticipated games of the weekend. Seattle Sounders and Houston Dynamo have been two of the best sides in the Western Conference this season. If Houston Dynamo win this match, they’ll lead the Seattle Sounders by one point on the Western Conference table, with a game to spare. 

Seattle Sounders are the home side, but they’ve not got three points in their last five league matches, whereas Houston Dynamo have won two matches against LAFC this month, beaten San Jose 4-1, and lost 3-0 to Austin FC; they’re a bit unpredictable. 

Seattle Sounders have been a bit unfortunate not to get the points in recent matches, whereas Houston Dynamo have been a bit lucky. We think that things will even out in this match: Seattle Sounders will get the better of the Dynamo and hold onto third place. 

There isn’t a lot of value in picking the Sounders, but they’re too good a side – this barren run won’t last forever, and everything’s set up perfectly for them to go back to winning ways this weekend. 

Previous Meetings

Seattle Sounders have a far superior head-to-head record, with 15 wins, seven draws, and five wins in 27 matches. This isn’t surprising, considering how dominant the Seattle Sounders have been in the last decade. 

The last match between the two sides occurred in May, with the Sounders winning 1-0 via an 87th-minute goal from Paul Rothrock. Houston Dynamo did well not to concede a goal for that long, as they had two players sent off in the match: Amine Bassi (21’) and Hector Herrera (78’). 

The Sounders took 12 shots on goal and conceded just three all game, with 73% of the possession, but it was a frustrating match for the longest time. It was a concerning performance from the Dynamo, who showed incredible indiscipline on the day. If they repeat something similar this weekend, they’ll get a hammering; the home advantage helped them hold onto a respectable scoreline – they don’t have that this weekend. 

Seattle Sounders Draw 0-0 Against Orlando City

Seattle Sounders had to settle for another frustrating result over the weekend, with a 0-0 draw against Orlando City. This was their fifth league game without a win. They took 16 shots on goal, conceded 13, and had 44% of the possession, so there wasn’t much between the two sides. 

They’re still in the running for first place in the Western Conference, which shows just how competitive the conference has been, but the lack of results in recent weeks will be a bit concerning. 

Seattle Sounders Should Go on a Run Soon 

Seattle Sounders have been a bit unfortunate not to get points on the board in recent weeks. Their underlying numbers are the best in the Western Conference: they have the highest expected goal value, third-best expected goal value, and the best-expected goal differential. Even LAFC can’t claim to have this going for them. LAFC had the best underlying metrics in the Western Conference before going on to win the MLS, so having good underlying numbers is usually a good sign. 

The expected goal differential value is the most important here, as it suggests that they’ve got a good balance between attack and defense. Jordan Morris’ form has been another plus for the Sounders; he has scored nine goals so far this season and is one of the many forwards in contention for the golden boot award. 

Teams with solid underlying numbers tend to go on a run eventually; everything suggests that they’re ready to go on a run after an unusual June. They’re also playing a team that overperformed in the last month, so this is the perfect game to show the difference in quality between the two sides. 

Houston Dynamo Get a Reality Check with 3-0 Loss to Austin FC

Houston Dynamo’s winning run came to an end with a 3-0 loss to Austin FC over the weekend. Austin FC were quite comfortable for most of the game. Ethan Finlay kicked things off with a 22nd-minute strike before Gyasi Zardes joined him 10 minutes later to make it 2-0. Julio Cascante ensured that there was no way back for Houston Dynamo by adding a third five minutes into the second half. 

 Houston Dynamo had 48% of the possession and took the same number of shots on goal as Austin FC (10), but this doesn’t highlight just how poor Houston Dynamo were in the first half. They’ve had a fantastic month with some big wins, but this loss will sting for a while. 

Houston Dynamo Will Find it Hard to Be Around the Top Sides

Houston Dynamos’ 4-0 win over LAFC earlier in the month shocked everyone, but most fans and experts believed that it was just a one-off; however, they managed to beat them 1-0 a week later, which got everyone to change their tune about them. 

There are freak results every season in most football leagues, and the 4-0 win had all the hallmarks of one, and the second win involved a red card. So as much as Houston Dyanmo deserve credit for beating the MLS champions twice this season, we need to look a bit deeper before coming to big conclusions about them: a league is a marathon, not a sprint. 

There has been a lot of good fortune in Houston Dynamo’s rise to the top-four this season – their expected goal differential is the fourth-worst in the league. In fact, it’s in the negatives, which shows just how lucky they’ve been all season. We don’t think they’ll be able to continue like this for long, and the Seattle Sounders seem like just the team to put this fairytale run to an end. The result against Austin FC last week was more in line with the level of their performances this season. 

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How to Watch Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo

  • Teams: Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo
  • Location: Lumen Field
  • Time: Saturday, July 1 at 7:30 pm EST onwards
  • How to watch: Apple TV
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AUTHOR

Nikhil Kalro

681 Articles

With an interest in strategy and mathematics, applying that to sports writing was the natural progression. A writer at night and the founder of a gaming company, Nikhil’s previous experience includes working with ESPN for five years. His specialization includes soccer, basketball, tennis, and esports betting. Email: [email protected]

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