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The Boston Celtics are just one win away from capturing their first NBA Finals since 2008. Jaylen Brown is a sizable favorite to win the Finals MVP, while Luka Doncic has been a target for criticism after he unnecessarily fouled out of Game Three and left his team for dead, putting them in an 0-3 series hole.
Here are our favorite NBA player prop picks for Game Four of the NBA Finals on Friday.
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Jones Jr. went over this line in seven of his last nine games and in all three games of the NBA Finals. He only played 16 minutes in Game Three after he averaged more than 30 throughout the playoffs, which is likely the reason his line is so low. But we’re not ready to give up on him just yet, especially since he grabbed three boards in 16 minutes in Game Three (above his usual rate of production).
The Mavericks need help on both ends, and their decision to play Tim Hardaway Jr. proved to be a mistake. Josh Green has also proven to be ineffective on offense and defense in the series, and we expect Jones Jr. to reclaim his usual playing time and to have a strong chance to cash his over.
Bet on Derrick Jones Jr. Props at FanDuel
Lively was excellent in Game Three, grabbing 13 rebounds in 30 minutes and having a strong individual night despite his team’s loss. That said, his 30 minutes of action tied his most in a single game in the entire playoffs and were far more than the 18.5 he averaged during the first two games of the series.
With adjustments to the rotation likely coming, we expect Lively II to return to his usual workload of somewhere between 18-24 minutes. He also went under this line in four straight games before Game Three and is one solid stretch of play from Daniel Gafford away from finding himself short on work.
Bet on Dereck Lively II Props at FanDuel
Are these odds the most profitable on the sportsbook? Not necessarily. But they could be a solid inclusion in a parlay, given that Tatum cashed the under on this line in 15 out of 17 playoff games up to this point.
The Celtics’ star only went over in Game Three because of his insistence on shooting the ball as he took a personal playoff-high 13 three-point attempts, making just four of them. He’s one shooting 29.1 percent from beyond the arc over the course of the playoffs and went under in Games One and Two, so it’s reasonable to expect another under.
Bet on Jayson Tatum Props at FanDuel
Brown is simply playing the best basketball of his entire career, and is playing with a level of consistency that previously separated him from star and superstar. He erupted for 24 second-half points in Game Three en route to 30 overall and is as worthy of a bet now as he was at any point in his career.
The 27-year-old is one solid game away from winning the Finals MVP award, and we expect him to play with that understanding in mind. Even though he went under in the first two games of the series, he is shooting 55.1 percent from the field and went over in four of his last seven games.
Bet on Jaylen Brown Props at FanDuel
Luka is justifiably frustrated with his team’s inability to nail open shots and help him carry the scoring burden, aside from Kyrie Irving in Game Three. Their struggles allowed the Celtics to remain content with showing little help toward the young Slovenian and instead ensuring he gets little help from his supporting cast, which is why his assists have faltered.
Dallas’ PG recorded one, 11, and six assists in the series. He also went under in five of his last eight games and is likely to be in score-early, score-often mode as he is just one loss away from losing the NBA Finals.
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