The Texas Longhorns are the current betting favorite to win the National Championship
Georgia’s defense ranks top-10 in Def Finishing Drives and Explosiveness
The Longhorns' ground game ranks below the league average in Rush Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness
After entering the year as the betting favorite to win the NCAAF SEC Championship, the Georgia Bulldogs are in serious jeopardy of missing out on the conference championship as they head into the weekend listed as an underdog to the Texas Longhorns. Georgia already has one loss on their record after losing to Alabama earlier in the season, now prone to digging themselves even deeper into a hole should they fail to upset the current betting favorites for the National Championship.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Georgia | +3.5 (-110) | +152 | Over 56.5 (-110) |
Texas | -3.5 (-110) | -180 | Under 56.5 (-110) |
Should Georgia want to avoid falling even further down the SEC standings, then their defense will need to continue to play at a high level as the Longhorns' offense has been one of the more formidable units in the league. Luckily for the reeling Bulldogs, their defense is more than capable of limiting their offensive production as they enter the contest ranked above league average in Def Success Rate, Finishing Drives, Havoc, and Explosiveness. Facor in the Longhorns also fielding an elite defense, and there may be a lack of scoring opportunities in this top-5 matchup.
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Since coming into the year listed as the sizable betting favorite to win the SEC, the Georgia Bulldogs have yet to look the part after a prolonged stretch of underwhelming performances. Their metrics back up that sentiment, especially on offense as the Bulldogs currently rank just slightly above the league average in Off Success Rate. Their lack of elite rush production has played a major factor in their lackluster metrics as they currently rank 59th in Rush Success Rate and 49th in PPA.
Heading into Saturday, generating consistent rush production will once again be a struggle as they are set to face off against a stout Longhorns front seven. While not nearly as dominant as last year, Texas still excels at stuffing the run as they currently rank 33rd in Def Rush Success Rate, 23rd in PPA, and 30th in Explosiveness. Their high mark in Def Rush Success Rate is key in this matchup, indicating they can stop the Bulldogs from cutting the distance to gain in half on first down, as well as converting on later downs.
That applies more pressure to Carson Beck and the Bulldogs pass attack in their efforts of moving the ball down the field, an area of the offense they have struggled in as Georgia ranks 40th in Pass Success Rate and 66th in Pass Explosiveness. Beck’s latest performance is especially alarming, finishing the contest against Mississippi State throwing two interceptions. Texas is by far better in coverage, being more than capable of halting Beck’s pass production and getting Georgia’s offense off the field in early outs.
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After Georgia and Alabama traded losses, as well as Ohio State going down to Oregon, the Texas Longhorns are the new betting favorites to win the National Championship. A well-deserved feat as they have put away everyone they have faced off against in dominant fashion, including beating Oklahoma 34-3 in their most recent outing.
Heading into this weekend, Quinn Ewers faces an even tougher defensive test as the Bulldogs secondary excels in coverage. Ranked top-20 in Def Pass Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness, Georgia’s back end possesses more than enough production to limit the Longhorns' pass attack who ranks just as equally as well in the same previously mentioned metrics.
With their pass attack projected to struggle, the Longhorns would be better off trying to abuse the run as Georgia’s front seven ranks 87th in Def Rush Success Rate. Unfortunately for Texas, their ground game has also struggled while dealing with injuries as they rank 63rd in Rush Success Rate, 85th in PPA, and 73rd in Explosiveness. With no clear path for success, expect Texas to struggle with consistently moving the ball down the field.
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When: Saturday, October 19 at 8:30 p.m. ET
Where: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas
Where to Watch: ABC
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DB Daniel Harris - Questionable
RB Branson Robinson - Out
OL Jared Wilson - Questionable
RB Christian Clark - Out
RB CJ Baxter - Out
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