The LSU Tigers are undefeated in conference play and 8th in the AP top-25
Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green is trending toward playing after suffering an injury
Both secondaries rank well below the league average in Def Pass Success Rate
Fresh off of a massive overtime win against the Ole Miss Rebels, the LSU Tigers hit the road and put their undefeated conference record on the line against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Defense may be optional in this contest as both units have struggled with limiting opposing offensive production. Especially through the air as both secondaries enter the contest ranked well below the league average in Def Pass Success Rate.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
LSU | -3 (-110) | -145 | Over 55.5 (-105) |
Arkansas | +3 (-110) | +120 | Under 55.5 (-115) |
My Pick: Over 55.5 (-105) at BetMGM
With the Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green trending towards playing, Arkansas’s offense should have no issue with moving the ball down the field into scoring territory against one of the worst defenses in the league. The Tigers' high-powered offense will also have an equally great chance of generating scoring opportunities, taking advantage of an Arkansas defense who struggles with keeping points off the board when in the red zone.
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After losing to the USC Trojans in their season opener, the LSU Tigers have now rattled off five wins in a row and are in contention for the SEC Conference Championship. Their latest win against Ole Miss is their most impressive one yet, matching the Rebels' star-studded offense and squeaking out the win in overtime. Their high-powered pass attack is now rewarded with a much easier assignment, facing off against a Razorback secondary who ranks 87th in Def Pass Success Rate and 86th in Def Pass PPA.
Arkansas’s inability to limit opposing pass production in the middle of the field bodes well for the Tigers as their pass attack thrives at picking apart gaps in coverage. Heading into the weekend, LSU’s offense ranks eighth overall in Pass Success Rate and 37th in PPA. Preseason Heisman Trophy contender Garrett Nussmeier has been instrumental in their high marks on offense, entering the contest throwing for 1,989 yards and 18 passing touchdowns in six games played.
While the Tigers' pass attack has once again been the strength of their offense, their ground game has yet to give them the support they need to be a versatile unit as the Tigers rank 118th in Rush Success Rate and 91st in Rush PPA. Fortunately for LSU, their massive advantage through the air will be more than enough to help them sustain drives down the field. When in scoring position, expect points to be put up on the board as Arkansas ranks 75th in Def Finishing Drives.
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While their win over Tennessee was huge, the Razorbacks were beaten up in the process as their starting quarterback Taylen Green suffered an injury. Fortunately for Arkansas, they had a bye week after their contest against the Volunteers, giving Green more time to nurse his injury. As of writing, reports state that Green is good to go for their matchup against the LSU Tigers.
Green’s production under center is vital for the Razorbacks' success as he brings a dual-threat ability that creates serious stress on opposing linebacking units. LSU’s defense has struggled mightily with limiting opposing offensive production this season, entering the contest ranked 94th in Def Success Rate and 109th in Def Explosiveness. When the Tigers are not creating disruptions as they possess a high mark in Havoc, they are routinely getting beat down the field for sizable gains at a time.
The Tigers' secondary has been especially awful this season, entering the contest ranked near dead last in Def Pass Success Rate and 111th in Def Pass PPA. That plays right into Arkansas’s hands as they will look to abuse the Tigers' lack of coverage to help stretch out their defense, opening up wider rushing lanes for their own dominant ground game to take advantage of. With high-quality opportunities to move the ball down the field, expect a high-scoring affair between Arkansas and LSU.
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When: Saturday, October 19 at 7 PM ET
Where: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, Arkansas
Where to Watch: ESPN
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WR CJ Daniels - Questionable
WR Chris Hilton - Questionable
QB Taylen Green - Probable
OL Patrick Kutas - Questionable
DB Jaylon Braxton - Doubtful
RB Rodney Hill - Doubtful
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