Missouri vs. Alabama Picks, Predictions and Odds: Cook’s Injury Shades Value Towards the Under

• Missouri’s star quarterback Brady Cook is listed as questionable on the injury report

• Alabama’s defense ranks top-35 in Def Success Rate, Havoc, Finishing Drives, and Explosiveness

• The Tigers pass attack ranks near dead last in Pass Play Explosiveness

After losing to the Tennessee Volunteers last weekend, the Alabama Crimson Tide are in serious jeopardy of missing out on the playoffs should they lose another game. A shockingly poor performance after entering the year listed as one of the betting favorites for the NCAAF National Championship, especially when they grade out very well on both sides of the ball in Success Rate, Havoc, Explosiveness, and Finishing Drives.

Missouri vs. Alabama Odds 

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Missouri vs. Alabama My Pick

• My Pick: Under 55.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

With Missouri’s star quarterback Brady Cook dealing with an injury, Missouri’s offense may be prone to regress should he come into the contest less than 100%. Especially when they draw the unfortunate task of having to face off against a Crimson Tide defense who ranks top-5 in Def Success Rate, directly combating against their heavy use of short throws when in the middle of the field. Factor in Missouri’s defense capable of taking advantage of Alabama’s regressing offense and Saturday’s NCAAF SEC matchup may feature a lack of scoring opportunities.

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Missouri vs. Alabama Predictions 

Missouri Preview

After entering the fourth quarter down 17-6 to Auburn last weekend, the Missouri Tigers managed to mount a comeback and save their season by rattling off 15 straight points to win the contest 21-17. While the win helped salvage their playoff hopes as they already have one loss on the year, they did not leave the contest unscathed as their star quarterback Brady Cook suffered an injury. His status is still up in the air heading into this weekend as he is currently listed as questionable on Missouri’s injury report.

Should Cook enter the contest less than 100%, let alone not be able to play at all, then Missouri’s offense will be poised to regress as they are set to face off against a stout Alabama defense who ranks top-35 in Def Success Rate, Explosiveness, Havoc, and Finishing Drives. The Crimson Tide’s top-5 mark in Def Success Rate is especially key in this contest as Missouri’s offense heavily relies on short throws to put themselves in more favorable positions on later downs.

Should Alabama manage to smother Missouri’s short throws early in their possessions, then the Tigers will find themselves with lower-quality opportunities to convert on later downs which may result in an uptick in stalled-out drives and early outs. Especially when the Tigers' offense struggles to generate explosiveness to help stretch out the coverage, entering the contest ranked 127th in Pass Play Explosiveness. Whether Cook is able to play or not, expect the Tigers offense to struggle with moving the ball down the field.

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Alabama Preview

In a must-win situation against the Tennessee Volunteers, preseason Heisman Trophy contender Jalen Milroe severely underwhelmed as he finished the contest throwing two back-breaking interceptions and a lowly completion percentage of 55.56%. Heading into this weekend, the Tigers will do him no favors in his efforts of bouncing back as Missouri’s secondary ranks 12th in Def Pass Success Rate and 27th in Def Pass PPA.

Missouri does struggle with limiting opposing Pass Play Explosiveness, yet they get the benefit of Alabama potentially having to convert on longer distances should the Tigers' Def Success Rate hold up on early downs. That allows the Tigers to stretch out in coverage to help cover more ground, masking their low mark in Def Explosiveness and limiting the chance of getting burned through the air for a sizable gain.

Should Missouri sell out in coverage, then Alabama may revert to a heavier dose of the run to help command defensive attention back toward the middle of the defense. That plays towards the under as it helps keep the clock moving while making minimal gains at a time. Especially with Missouri’s front seven excelling at limiting opposing rush production as they enter the contest ranked 10th overall in Def Rush Success Rate and 17th in Def Rush PPA.

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Missouri vs. Alabama How to Watch

• When: Saturday, October 26 at 3:30 PM ET

• Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama

• Where to Watch: ABC

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Missouri vs. Alabama Injuries

Missouri Injuries

• QB Brady Cook - Questionable

• WR Marquis Johnson - Questionable

Alabama Injuries

• DB Keon Sabb - Out

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