Ohio State vs. Texas Picks, Predictions and Odds: Back the Buckeyes to Stall Out the Longhorns Offense

• The Ohio State Buckeyes are the current betting favorite to win the National Championship

• Texas was on upset alert against Arizona State in the quarterfinals

• Ohio State’s defense ranks top-15 in Def Success Rate, Havoc, Explosiveness, and Finishing Drives

While Ohio State made quick work of the NCAAF Big Ten Conference Champions, Texas found themselves on upset alert when Arizona State took them to overtime. Even though Texas did manage to avoid the upset, their second half performance was severely underwhelming to say the least. They now find themselves battling it out against a much tougher defense as the Buckeyes enter the contest ranked near the top of the board in Def Success Rate, Havoc, Explosiveness, and Finishing Drives.

Ohio State vs. Texas Odds 

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Ohio State vs. Texas My Pick

• My Pick: Texas Longhorns Team Total Under 23.5 (-110) at BetMGM

When the Longhorns pass attack stalls out, so does their offense as they receive minimal support from their ground game. Generating rush production has been a struggle for Texas this season as they enter the semifinals ranked 63rd in Rush Success Rate, 73rd in Explosiveness, and 85th in PPA. Their struggles on the ground allows the Buckeyes linebackers to cheat out in coverage, increasing their chances of slowing down the Longhorns offense before they get into scoring position.

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Ohio State vs. Texas Predictions 

Ohio State Preview

Aside from their stunning loss to Michigan, the Ohio State Buckeyes have lived up to expectations as one of the betting favorites to win the National Championship. Their offense has been red hot since the start of the playoffs as they have scored more than forty points in both of their wins against the Tennessee Volunteers and Oregon Ducks.

Not only have the Buckeyes offense been able to round back into form, but their defense has sustained their high level of play. Ohio State fields arguably one of the best defenses in the league as they head into the semifinals ranked 9th overall in Def Success Rate, 10th in Explosiveness, 15th in Havoc, and 1st in Finishing Drives. Their league-high mark in Def Finishing Drives will be on full display against Texas as the Longhorns' offense struggles to score when inside the 20.

Getting into the red zone will already be a hassle for the Longhorns offense as they lack the versatility needed to spread out the Buckeyes coverage. With the Longhorns' ground game ranking 63rd or worse in Rush Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness, the Buckeyes' defense can anchor their linebackers in coverage to help bracket the Longhorns' explosive receivers off the line. That will help lessen the quality of Quinn Ewers passing lanes, leading to an uptick in stalled-out drives when in the middle of the field.

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Texas Preview

After neutralizing the Clemson Tigers offense for a majority of their contest in the first round of the playoffs, the Texas Longhorns failed to carry their momentum into the quarterfinals as Arizona State took them to the brink of elimination. It was a stunning second half performance from the Longhorns as the Sun Devils went on a 21-7 run to take them to overtime.

While the Sun Devils do grade out well in Def Success Rate, Explosiveness, and Havoc, the Buckeyes field a far higher quality defense and are more than capable of stalling out the Longhorns offense. Especially with their secondary excelling in coverage as Ohio State heads into Friday ranked 15th overall in Def Pass Success Rate, 4th in Def Pass PPA, and 26th in Def Pass Explosiveness.

To make matters worse for Texas, their offense may see a decrease in their number of possessions as the Buckeyes can prolong their drives by picking apart the Longhorns gaps in coverage. Defending against the short throw has been a struggle for the Longhorns as their secondary ranks 49th in Def Pass Success Rate. With fewer possessions and minimal opportunities to sustain drives down the field, value shades towards the Longhorns team total under as Texas will struggle to put up points on the board.

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Ohio State vs. Texas How to Watch

• When: Friday, January 10, 7:30 p.m. ET

• Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

• Where to Watch: ESPN

Ohio State vs. Texas Best Promos and Sportsbooks

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Ohio State vs. Texas Injuries

Ohio State Injuries

• S Inky Jones - Questionable

Texas Injuries

• OL Cameron Williams - Questionable