Fairfield Stags vs. Quinnipiac Bobcats Prediction: Best Two Teams in MAAC Battle

Written by: Tanner Kern
Published February 23, 2024
5 min read

Friday night is all about the mid-major programs in college basketball. The MAAC is one of the most competitive mid-major conferences in the country, and the two top teams will battle on ESPNU.

The Quinnipiac Bobcats will host in-state rival Fairfield at M&T Bank Arena. The Bobcats have been dominant until recently, losing their past two games. 

The Stags enter this game having won four of their past five and have a ton of momentum. Despite this, Quinnipiac has the better conference mark at 11-3 compared to Fairfield at 10-5. 

This will be the season's second meeting between the Bobcats and Stags. Quinnipiac took the first game of the season by two points on the road, so Fairfield will look to avenge this loss as visitors on Friday. 

Here, we will break down the matchup between Fairfield and Quinnipiac and give our best bets.

Fairfield Stags vs. Quinnipiac Bobcats prediction

Fairfield vs. Quinnipiac Betting Odds for Thursday, Feb. 23rd 

Fairfield and Quinnipiac are very similar in key statistical categories. Additionally, these two teams play very close, so even though Fairfield is on the road, they have less than a one-hour drive to the arena. 

The spread reflects these facts: the Bobcats are just a 2.5-point home favorite over the Stags. Quinnipiac is priced at -130 on the moneyline, while Fairfield is +108.  

The total is 157.5, and the season's first meeting went well below this line. The teams combined for 130 points in the opener, but bookmakers expect a much larger scoring effort on Friday. 

Teams Spread Moneyline Total 
Fairfield Stags +2.5 (-115) +108 Over 157.5 (-110)
Quinnipiac Bobcats -2.5 (-105) -130 Under 157.5 (-110)

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Quinnipiac has a 62.7% chance of winning according to the ESPN matchup predictor, and if they do, it will be because of their significant presence under the rim. The area where Quinnipiac can expose Fairfield is on the glass. 

The Bobcats outrebounded 40-35 in the first meeting of the season. Fairfield did win on the offensive glass, but Quinnipiac won the overall battle. 

Amarri Tice is Quinnipiac's rebounding leader and has been fantastic this season. He grabs 7.1 rebounds per game and shoots just under 50% from the field. In his first game against Fairfield, he accumulated 11 boards. 

The Stags didn’t have an answer for the 6’7” forward, which showed in the final minutes of the second half. Jasper Floyd, a 6’3” guard, is Fairfield’s leading rebounder.

It’s never ideal when a guard leads a team in rebounding because it shows they don’t have physical bigs under the hoop. This is the exact case for the Stags, and it’s a primary reason we’re leaning toward the Bobcats. 

For Fairfield to win, they must be efficient from the field. They’re giving Quinnipiac chances to win on the glass when they don't score. This is deflating and takes a massive toll on a team over 40 minutes. 

The Stags have been slightly better from the field this season, but Quinnipiac has a small scoring edge. Matt Balanc is the player to watch for the Bobcats regarding scoring. 

He averages 18.5 points per game but only had 13 in his first meeting against Fairfield. He must be better, and if he is, it gives Quinnipiac a great chance to prevail on Friday at home. 

Fairfield is the better team in the KenPom Ratings because of their offensive efficiency. The Stags are 177 compared to the Bobcats at 198, but this game will be decided on defense, as the first contest was in Fairfield. 

The Bobcats are 182nd in adjusted defensive efficiency from KenPom, while the Stags are 236th. Look for this metric to make the difference in the game. 

Fairfield vs. Quinnipiac Prediction and Betting Pick

Scoring is fleeting in college basketball, so even though Fairfield is the better offensive team, we still trust Quinnipiac. The rebounding battle proved difficult for Fairfield in the first meeting between the two sides. 

We expect the Stags to play with better efficiency on offense, but if the Bobcats can get early stops, it positions them for success. Take the Bobcats to pick up their second win over their in-state rival. 

How to Watch Fairfield vs. Quinnipiac

  • When: Friday, Feb. 23rd @ 9:00 PM ET

  • Where: M&T Bank Arena, Hamden, Connecticut

  • TV: ESPNU

  • Streaming: ESPN+

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Tanner Kern

Sports Betting Analyst & On-Air Host

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Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.
Nationality: American
Education: M.S in Sports Journalism
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