Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions in Week 17: Back Jake Ferguson to Score on Christmas Day

• Jake Ferguson leads the Dallas Cowboys in total Red Zone Targets

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the favorite to win the Offensive Player of the Year award

• The Buffalo Bills front seven ranks below league average in Run Defense Win Rate

Since the start of the regular season, the Dallas Cowboys offense have been able to play at a very high level as they field one of the most explosive pass attacks in the league. In a NFC East divisional matchup against Washington, expect Jake Ferguson to put together a dominant performance as he faces off against a Commanders defense who severely struggles in coverage.

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Jake Ferguson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210) at BetMGM Sportsbook

While CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens hog most of the spotlight, Jake Ferguson has quietly been very productive as the Dallas Cowboys tight end leads the team in Red Zone Targets and in Red Zone Touchdowns. With their star studded duo pulling defensive attention away from him, Ferguson has been able to take advantage of the single coverage he receives and gives Dak Prescott a high quality target to throw to.

Heading into Thursday, Prescott will be able to continue to connect with his tight end at a high rate as he faces off against a Washington Commanders defense who ranks well below league average in Pass Rush PFF Grade. With Ferguson having more time in his routes to exploit the Commanders gaps in coverage, the width of his passing lanes will widen which increases his chances of scoring.

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+100) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After shipping off DK Metcalf to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been able to thrive as the WR1 in Seattle’s pass attack as the Seahawks wide receiver is listed as the betting favorite to win the Offensive Player of the Year award. His production near the goal line has played a major role in his success this season as JSN has been able to convert over 50% of his Red Zone Receptions into touchdowns.

In a favorable matchup against Carolina, JSN will have the opportunity to strengthen his claim for the award as he faces off against a Panthers defense who ranks 26th in EPA. Especially with Sam Darnold capable of stretching out their coverage as the Seahawks quarterback resides near the top of the board in Big Time Throw Percentage.

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Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After nearly winning the MVP award last year, Saquon Barkley has struggled to recapture the same success he had last season as the Philadelphia Eagles running back ranks below league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. Even with his offensive line ranking top-15 in Run Block Set Grade, Barkley has struggled to capitalize on the high quality running lanes his front five provides.

Fortunately for Barkley, he is in a great position to round back into form on Sunday as he faces off against a Buffalo Bills front seven who ranks in the bottom half of the board in Def DVOA and in Run Defense Win Rate. For some more exposure, escalator bet Barkley’s anytime touchdown scoring prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.

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Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It has been an abysmal year for the Cincinnati Bengals defense as they head into week 17 ranked 32nd in Def DVOA and in EPA while giving up the most Opposing Points per game. With the Bengals struggling to defend at all three levels of the field, the Arizona Cardinals will be able to get into scoring position at a higher rate which will lead to an uptick in Trey McBride’s total number of Red Zone Targets.

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