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The Offensive Player of the Year award is one of the more unique awards in the NFL. It differs from the MVP and is largely considered the highest individual honor outside of winning MVP. Rather than worrying about the value a player brings or his team’s success, the award is typically given to a player who dominated on the field but was perhaps overlooked as an MVP candidate for one reason or another.
Now that the 2023 NFL season is underway, we’re going to start following the odds for the top contenders of Offensive Player of the Year. Keep checking back every couple of weeks to see how the odds have changed, who’s the current frontrunner, and who is our pick to be the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year in 2023.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Player | Position | Team | Odds |
Justin Jefferson | WR | Minnesota Vikings | +900 |
Christian McCaffrey | RB | San Francisco 49ers | +1200 |
Tyreek Hill | WR | Miami Dolphins | +1200 |
Nick Chubb | RB | Cleveland Browns | +1300 |
Ja’Marr Chase | WR | Cincinnati Bengals | +1700 |
Tua Tagovailoa | QB | Miami Dolphins | +2000 |
Garrett Wilson | WR | New York Jets | +2500 |
Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | Detroit Lions | +2500 |
Jalen Hurts | QB | Philadelphia Eagles | +3000 |
Austin Ekeler | RB | Los Angeles Chargers | +3000 |
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At +1400, Jefferson has the second-shortest odds to win OPOTY before Week 1. However, he quickly became the favorite to win the award for the second straight season after an exceptional performance in Week 1. The fact that the Vikings lost or he didn’t find the end zone shouldn’t take away much from his nine catches for 150 yards against the Buccaneers. Keep in mind that performance came on the heels of Jefferson and the Vikings failing to reach an agreement on a long-term deal, so he clearly wasn’t distracted. Also, Jefferson is surely the most marked wide receiver in the NFL these days. Yet, he was able to put on a show against a solid Tampa defense. That says a lot about the type of season he figures to have in 2023.
If McCaffrey is able to stay healthy, the entire league knows what he’s capable of doing. He spent Week 1 running circles around the Steelers, gaining 152 yards on the ground and scoring a touchdown. It’s hard to believe that he’s still only 27 and this is his first full season with the 49ers, so he’s just getting settled in San Francisco. Again, it’s all about health with McCaffrey. But if he can stay healthy, he’s bound to put up the kind of numbers that will make him a serious contender for OPOTY, which is why his odds moved from +2000 during the offseason to +1200 after Week 1.
Numbers-wise, nobody was better in Week 1 than Hill. With a little help from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Hill went off for 215 receiving yards on 11 catches with two touchdowns against the Chargers. He scored the game-winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter, as Hill and the Dolphins earned a statement victory in Week 1. He was a tad overlooked heading into the season at +2000 with two wide receivers having shorter odds. However, Hill is off to a great start and is exactly the type of player who usually wins OPOTY.
Any discussion of the best running backs in the NFL must include Chubb, which is why he’s an obvious contender for OPOTY. He picked up where he left off last season in Week 1, rushing for 106 yards and gaining close to six yards per carry in a big win over the Bengals. Chubb rushed for over 1,500 yards last season and has averaged over five yards per carry his entire career. If he keeps that up, Chubb figures to be in the Offensive Player of the Year conversation all season.
During the offseason, Chase had the shortest odds to win OPOTY. Of course, those odds dropped from +1200 to +1700 after Week 1 when Chase and the Bengals suffered a disappointing loss in Cleveland. Chase had a mere 39 receiving yards in that game, which isn’t bad considering Joe Burrow was held to just 82 passing yards. It obviously wasn’t the Week 1 statement Chase wanted to make, especially compared to a few other top-flight wide receivers. But he led the Bengals with nine targets in that game, which should be a sign that he’ll have plenty of opportunities to strut his stuff and make his case to be OPOTY in 2023.
Coming out of Week 1, it’s hard not to see Jefferson has the best bet to win OPOTY in 2023. He won the award last year and remains the most dynamic playmaker in the NFL. After leading the league with over 1,800 receiving yards in 2022, Jefferson has a chance to set the all-time record by surpassing 2,000 receiving yards this year. While Hill, Chase, and other wide receivers are elite playmakers as well, Jefferson seems the most likely to pull off a 2,000-yard season. If he does that, Jefferson should be a lock for OPOTY honors, which is why he’s our pick for the award coming out of Week 1.
Justin Jefferson won the 2022 AP Offensive Player of the Year award in what was his third year in the league. Patrick Mahomes finished second, and Jalen Hurts finished third. All three also received a number of first-place votes in the same order.
The first AP Offensive Player of the Year honor was awarded in 1972 to running back Larry Brown of the team now known as the Washington Commanders. 17 of the last 26 players to win the OPOTY have been non-quarterbacks, including the last four.
The only positions to win the Offensive Player of the Year award are quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends. That means no offensive linemen, fullbacks, or tight ends.
Year | Player | Position | Team |
1972 | Larry Brown | RB | (Now the Washington Commanders) |
1973 | O.J. Simpson | RB | Buffalo Bills |
1974 | Ken Stabler | QB | Oakland Raiders |
1975 | Fran Tarkenton | QB | Minnesota Vikings |
1976 | Bert Jones | QB | Baltimore Colts |
1977 | Walter Payton | RB | Chicago Bears |
1978 | Earl Campbell | RB | Houston Oilers |
1979 | Earl Campbell | RB | Houston Oilers |
1980 | Earl Campbell | RB | Houston Oilers |
1981 | Ken Anderson | QB | Cincinnati Bengals |
1982 | Dan Fouts | QB | San Diego Chargers |
1983 | Joe Theismann | QB | (Now the Washington Commanders) |
1984 | Dan Marino | QB | Miami Dolphins |
1985 | Marcus Allen | RB | Los Angeles Raiders |
1986 | Eric Dickerson | RB | Los Angeles Rams |
1987 | Jerry Rice | WR | San Francisco 49ers |
1988 | Roger Craig | RB | San Francisco 49ers |
1989 | Joe Montana | QB | San Francisco 49ers |
1990 | Warren Moon | QB | Houston Oilers |
1991 | Thurman Thomas | RB | Buffalo Bills |
1992 | Steve Young | QB | San Francisco 49ers |
1993 | Jerry Rice | WR | San Francisco 49ers |
1994 | Barry Sanders | EB | Detroit Lions |
1995 | Brett Favre | QB | Green Bay Packers |
1996 | Terrell Davis | RB | Denver Broncos |
1997 | Barry Sanders | RB | Detroit Lions |
1998 | Terrell Davis | RB | Denver Broncos |
1999 | Marshall Faulk | RB | St. Louis Rams |
2000 | Marshall Faulk | RB | St. Louis Rams |
2001 | Marshall Faulk | RB | St. Louis Rams |
2002 | Priest Holmes | RB | Kansas City Chiefs |
2003 | Jamal Lewis | RB | Baltimore Ravens |
2004 | Peyton Manning | QB | Indianapolis Colts |
2005 | Shaun Alexanders | RB | Seattle Seahawks |
2006 | LaDanian Tomlinson | RB | San Diego Chargers |
2007 | Tom Brady | QB | New England Patriots |
2008 | Drew Brees | QB | New Orleans Saints |
2009 | Chris Johnson | RB | Tennessee Titans |
2010 | Tom Brady | QB | New England Patriots |
2011 | Drew Brees | QB | New Orleans Saints |
2012 | Adrian Peterson | RB | Minnesota Vikings |
2013 | Peyton Manning | QB | Indianapolis Colts |
2014 | DeMarco Murray | RB | Dallas Cowboys |
2015 | Cam Newton | QB | Carolina Panthers |
2016 | Matt Ryan | QB | Atlanta Falcons |
2017 | Todd Gurley | RB | Los Angeles Rams |
2018 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | Kansas City Chiefs |
2019 | Michael Thomas | WR | New Orleans Saints |
2020 | Derrick Henry | RB | Tennessee Titans |
2021 | Cooper Kupp | WR | Los Angeles Rams |
2022 | Justin Jefferson | WR | Minnesota Vikings |
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The AP Offensive Player of the Year is an award given to the most outstanding offensive player in a year of football. It is voted for by a team of 50 sportswriters across the country and is run by the Associated Press, thus the “AP” Offensive Player of the Year.
Justin Jefferson, a wide receiver for the Minnesota Vikings, won the 2022 AP Offensive Player of the Year. He had a ridiculous stat line of 128 catches, 1,809 yards, and eight touchdowns (plus a rushing touchdown) and was responsible for just under 40% of Minnesota’s total passing offense. Minnesota finished 13-4 and won the NFC North, largely thanks to Jefferson’s dominance.
The AP Offensive Player of the Year can play any position on offense to be eligible for the award. However, running backs and wide receivers have the strongest chance of winning as of late. Quarterbacks can win, though they are usually more competitive in MVP voting.
Running backs Earl Campbell and Marshall Faulk are tied for the most AP Offensive Player of the Year award wins with three each. Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning have all won two.
The MVP can also win the AP Offensive Player of the Year, but it’s not as straightforward as it might seem. QBs dominate MVP voting because of the importance of the position, but the OPOTY is more about which player stood out above the rest both in their position and related to the league as a whole regardless of the importance of the position.For example, no reasonable general manager would take a tight end with their first selection in a league-wide draft, but there is an argument to be made that the best offensive player in the league is Travis Kelce since the second-best tight end is far off his high standard. That would make Kelce a nice OPOTY prospect even if he, in all likelihood, won’t have a sniff at the MVP.
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AUTHOR
Bryan Zarpentine
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Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.
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