NFL Offensive Player of the Year Predictions & Odds 2023

• Ja’Marr Chase opened the 2023 season as the favorite to be OPOTY
• Non-quarterbacks have won OPOTY in four straight seasons heading into 2023
• Peyton Manning in 2013 was the last player to win multiple Offensive Player of the Year awards.

The Offensive Player of the Year award is one of the more unique awards in the NFL. It differs from the MVP and is largely considered the highest individual honor outside of winning MVP. Rather than worrying about the value a player brings or his team’s success, the award is typically given to a player who dominated on the field but was perhaps overlooked as an MVP candidate for one reason or another.

Now that the 2023 NFL season is underway, we’re going to start following the odds for the top contenders of Offensive Player of the Year. Keep checking back every couple of weeks to see how the odds have changed, who’s the current frontrunner, and who is our pick to be the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year in 2023.

AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Favorites to Win AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year

Justin Jefferson - Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings (+900)

At +1400, Jefferson has the second-shortest odds to win OPOTY before Week 1. However, he quickly became the favorite to win the award for the second straight season after an exceptional performance in Week 1. The fact that the Vikings lost or he didn’t find the end zone shouldn’t take away much from his nine catches for 150 yards against the Buccaneers. Keep in mind that performance came on the heels of Jefferson and the Vikings failing to reach an agreement on a long-term deal, so he clearly wasn’t distracted. Also, Jefferson is surely the most marked wide receiver in the NFL these days. Yet, he was able to put on a show against a solid Tampa defense. That says a lot about the type of season he figures to have in 2023.

Christian McCaffrey - Running Back, San Francisco 49ers (+1200)

If McCaffrey is able to stay healthy, the entire league knows what he’s capable of doing. He spent Week 1 running circles around the Steelers, gaining 152 yards on the ground and scoring a touchdown. It’s hard to believe that he’s still only 27 and this is his first full season with the 49ers, so he’s just getting settled in San Francisco. Again, it’s all about health with McCaffrey. But if he can stay healthy, he’s bound to put up the kind of numbers that will make him a serious contender for OPOTY, which is why his odds moved from +2000 during the offseason to +1200 after Week 1.

Tyreek Hill - Wide Receiver, Miami Dolphins (+1200)

Numbers-wise, nobody was better in Week 1 than Hill. With a little help from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Hill went off for 215 receiving yards on 11 catches with two touchdowns against the Chargers. He scored the game-winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter, as Hill and the Dolphins earned a statement victory in Week 1. He was a tad overlooked heading into the season at +2000 with two wide receivers having shorter odds. However, Hill is off to a great start and is exactly the type of player who usually wins OPOTY.

Nick Chubb - Running Back, Cleveland Browns (+1300)

Any discussion of the best running backs in the NFL must include Chubb, which is why he’s an obvious contender for OPOTY. He picked up where he left off last season in Week 1, rushing for 106 yards and gaining close to six yards per carry in a big win over the Bengals. Chubb rushed for over 1,500 yards last season and has averaged over five yards per carry his entire career. If he keeps that up, Chubb figures to be in the Offensive Player of the Year conversation all season.

Ja’Marr Chase - Wide Receiver, Cincinnati Bengals (+1700)

During the offseason, Chase had the shortest odds to win OPOTY. Of course, those odds dropped from +1200 to +1700 after Week 1 when Chase and the Bengals suffered a disappointing loss in Cleveland. Chase had a mere 39 receiving yards in that game, which isn’t bad considering Joe Burrow was held to just 82 passing yards. It obviously wasn’t the Week 1 statement Chase wanted to make, especially compared to a few other top-flight wide receivers. But he led the Bengals with nine targets in that game, which should be a sign that he’ll have plenty of opportunities to strut his stuff and make his case to be OPOTY in 2023.

AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year Pick - Justin Jefferson

Coming out of Week 1, it’s hard not to see Jefferson has the best bet to win OPOTY in 2023. He won the award last year and remains the most dynamic playmaker in the NFL. After leading the league with over 1,800 receiving yards in 2022, Jefferson has a chance to set the all-time record by surpassing 2,000 receiving yards this year. While Hill, Chase, and other wide receivers are elite playmakers as well, Jefferson seems the most likely to pull off a 2,000-yard season. If he does that, Jefferson should be a lock for OPOTY honors, which is why he’s our pick for the award coming out of Week 1.

Who Won the AP Offensive Player of the Year in 2022?

Justin Jefferson won the 2022 AP Offensive Player of the Year award in what was his third year in the league. Patrick Mahomes finished second, and Jalen Hurts finished third. All three also received a number of first-place votes in the same order.

AP Offensive Player of the Year History

The first AP Offensive Player of the Year honor was awarded in 1972 to running back Larry Brown of the team now known as the Washington Commanders. 17 of the last 26 players to win the OPOTY have been non-quarterbacks, including the last four. 

The only positions to win the Offensive Player of the Year award are quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends. That means no offensive linemen, fullbacks, or tight ends.

Previous AP Offensive Player of the Year Winners