NFL Offensive Player of the Year Predictions & Odds 2024: Preseason Favorites

• Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey were neck and neck for Offensive Player of the Year honors throughout the 2023 season with McCaffrey ultimately winning the award.

• Non-quarterbacks have won OPOTY every year since Patrick Mahomes won the award in 2018.

• Peyton Manning in 2013 was the last player to win multiple Offensive Player of the Year awards.

The Offensive Player of the Year award is one of the more unique awards in the NFL. It differs from the MVP and is largely considered the highest individual honor outside of winning MVP. Rather than worrying about the value a player brings or his team’s success, the award is typically given to a player who dominated on the field but was perhaps overlooked as an MVP candidate for one reason or another.

As the winner of the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year, it’s natural for Christian McCaffrey to open as the favorite to win the award again next season. Tyreek Hill, who was a close second for the award in 2023, is not far behind. Fellow wide receivers Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb are also among the players with the shortest odds to be Offensive Player of the Year in 2024.

Once the 2024 season begins, we’ll be tracking the favorites for this award closely. However, there’s no harm in taking an early look at who the top contenders are likely to be. Make sure you keep checking back to see how the odds change throughout the year and get our current pick for 2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year.

AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Click on the odds in the table below to head over to DraftKings and place a bet on who you think will win. If you haven’t already, you can sign up for a DraftKings account and get a no-sweat bet up to $1,000.

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Favorites to Win AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year

Before making a bet on Offensive Player of the Year, it’s important to take a close look at some of the leading favorites and where they currently stand.

Christian McCaffrey - Running Back, San Francisco 49ers (+500)

As the reigning Offensive Player of the Year, it makes sense for McCaffrey to be the favorite heading into 2024. After dealing with injuries for a couple of seasons, he’s back to being the premier running back in the NFL and arguably the best non-quarterback in the league. He plays for a team that’s going to give him plenty of touches and every opportunity to make a difference. It’s also worth noting that McCaffrey will still only be 28 during the 2024 season. While that is a little old for a running back, McCaffrey looks like a player in his prime right now and is coming off his best season. There is no reason to expect much of a drop-off, which is why he’s an obvious choice for OPOTY in 2024.

Tyreek Hill - Wide Receiver, Miami Dolphins (+650)

For much of the 2023 season, Hill was on pace to eclipse 2,000 receiving yards and set the new single-season record. Unfortunately, an injury late in the season held him back enough to keep Calvin Johnson’s record intact. Nevertheless, Hill led the NFL in both receiving and receiving touchdowns in 2023. If not for that injury, he may have beaten out McCaffrey for OPOTY, putting him on the radar to win the award in 2024. Coming off back-to-back seasons with over 1,700 receiving yards, Hill remains the NFL’s premier wide receiver. The only caveat is that he’s 30, so at what point does he start to lose some of the blazing speed that’s made him a star.

Justin Jefferson - Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings (+650)

Jefferson was on fire at the start of the 2023 season. He averaged over 152 receiving yards per game over the first three weeks of the season, putting him on pace to set the new single-season record. Alas, a hamstring injury kept him on the sidelines for two months, ruining any chance he had to repeat as OPOTY. However, there’s no reason to think that Jefferson won’t come back strong in 2024. He returned from injury late last season and had over 140 receiving yards in two of his final three games. Granted, there is some uncertainty regarding Kirk Cousins staying in Minnesota. Of course, Jefferson will be good with any quarterback. But maintaining his working relationship with Cousins will put Jefferson in the best position to have a monster season and win Offensive Player of the Year in 2024.

CeeDee Lamb - Wide Receiver, Dallas Cowboys (+850)

After leading the NFL in receptions and going to his third straight Pro Bowl last season, there is no doubt that Lamb is among the elite wide receivers in the NFL. He had some monster games in 2023 and finished just 50 yards behind Hill for the league lead. Lamb has gotten noticeably better in each of his seasons in the NFL to the point where he is among the league’s elite playmakers. He’ll be 25 ahead of the 2024 season, meaning he’s likely to remain among the NFL’s best for years to come. Given his obvious chemistry with Dak Prescott, Lamb is another receiver who could potentially push for a 2,000 yard season in 2024 and become an obvious candidate for Offensive Player of the Year.

Ja’Marr Chase - Wide Receiver, Cincinnati Bengals (+1200)

It’s been easy to forget about Chase a little bit because he’s failed to match his rookie season over the past two seasons. But there’s no doubt that he’s as talented as any wide receiver in the league. Plus, don’t forget that Joe Burrow got hurt last season. That didn’t help Chase, even though he still finished the season with 100 catches and over 1,200 receiving yards. Obviously, Burrow staying healthy is key to Chase’s production. If the Bengals can keep both players healthy in 2024, the 24-year-old Chase will be poised for his best season and a serious run at Offensive Player of the Year honors.

Who Will Win 2024 Offensive Player of the Year

My Pick - Ja’Marr Chase (+1200)

It’s awfully tempting to take McCaffrey at +500. He’s in the perfect situation because the 49ers are a safe bet to be among the NFC’s best teams. Plus, everyone knows they will ride McCaffrey as much as possible, so an injury is probably the only thing that could keep him from being a part of the OPOTY conversation. However, in a passing league, it’s best to get behind a wide receiver, as a player at that position has won three times in the last five years. The question is how to separate Hill, Jefferson, Lamb, and Chase. Hill’s age is a concern, Jefferson may not have his best season if Cousins isn’t back in Minnesota. Lamb, meanwhile, could have potentially peaked. However, Chase might have the highest ceiling of the bunch if he and Burrow can both stay healthy. Given his value at +1200, Chase is our preseason pick for Offensive Player of the Year in 2024.

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Who Won the AP Offensive Player of the Year in 2023?

Christian McCaffrey won the 2023 AP Offensive Player of the Year award. Tyreek Hill finished second and CeeDee Lamb third with Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott rounding out the top-five. It was McCaffrey’s first time winning the award, and it was well deserved. He led the NFL in rushing yards, total yards from scrimmage, and total touchdowns by scoring 14 rushing and seven receiving touchdowns during the regular season.

AP Offensive Player of the Year History

The first AP Offensive Player of the Year honor was awarded in 1972 to running back Larry Brown of the team now known as the Washington Commanders. 17 of the last 26 players to win the OPOTY have been non-quarterbacks, including the last four. 

The only positions to win the Offensive Player of the Year award are quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends. That means no offensive linemen, fullbacks, or tight ends have ever won the award.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on NFL Offensive Player of the Year

Before you can make a winning bet for Offensive Player of the Year, you must first find the right sportsbook. Many bettors forget this stop, which can be a mistake. Various sportsbooks may have different odds, different promos, and different features, so you have to do your research. 

How to Read NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

Unless there is a heavy favorite, every Offensive Player of the Year candidate will have plus (+) odds listed next to their name. This means that you will profit more than you bet if your choice wins OPOTY. For instance, if you bet $100 on a player with +400 odds, the profit will be $400. In rare cases, a heavy favorite will have negative (-) odds. For example, if a player has -200 odds, you will have to bet $200 in order to make a profit of $100.