NFL MVP Odds, Candidates, Best Bets: Saquon Barkley Now Second, Josh Allen Minus-Money Favorite

• Josh Allen has an implied 66.7 percent chance to win NFL MVP

• No running back won the MVP since 2012

• Lamar Jackson dropped to fourth after a loss to the Eagles on SNF

There’s just over one month left in the NFL season, and for the first time all year, MVP odds have marked one player with a greater than 50 percent chance to win the award. 

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is in the driver’s seat to win the award following his team’s emphatic victory over the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football. Close behind him is Saquon Barkley, who is trying to become the first running back to win the NFL MVP since 2012.

Where do the other top candidates stand, and who still has a shot at the honor? Here’s a full look at NFL MVP odds, along with breakdowns of the cases of the top contenders.

2024 NFL MVP Odds

Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook. Use our promo code WSNDYW to place your bets at Caesars and claim the bonus: Bet $1, Double Your Winnings Your Next 10 Bets.

Favorites to Win 2024 NFL MVP

Josh Allen (-200) - QB, Buffalo Bills

Allen is in the enviable position of controlling his destiny in the NFL MVP odds market, as he just needs to keep winning games and play solid football to remain atop the odds board. The 26-year-old has 26 total touchdowns, five interceptions, is first in QBR, and beat both of last season’s Super Bowl participants in back-to-back weeks. Allen and the Bills will go on the road to face the Detroit Lions in two weeks in their hardest remaining game.

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Saquon Barkley (+290) - RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Barkley is pouring it on as he pursues not only his first MVP, but the NFL single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards, which has been in place since 1984. The first-year Eagle already has 1,499 rushing yards (first) and 11 rushing touchdowns (tied-third) and averaged 6.1 yards per carry (second). He also rushed for at least 100 yards in six of his last seven games and is the main reason the Eagles flew up to second in Super Bowl odds.

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Jared Goff (+900) - QB, Detroit Lions

With his disastrous five-interception game now a month old, Goff ranks eighth in passing yards, fifth in touchdowns, and 15th in QBR. He tossed 22 touchdowns to nine interceptions and quarterbacks the league’s highest-scoring offense, which pulled out a 23-20 win over the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving. As amazing of a season as the Lions are having, Dan Campbell winning Coach of the Year seems more likely than Goff defying NFL MVP odds.

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Lamar Jackson (+1300) - QB, Baltimore Ravens

Yes, the Ravens are 8-5, second in their own division, and lost half of their marquee matchups, but these odds still seem a little unfair to Jackson. He ranks second in passing yards, second in passing touchdowns (29), only has three interceptions, leads the league in yards per rush attempt, and is fourth in QBR. He was not at his best in recent weeks but wasn’t bad, which shows how quickly he can climb the odds if he is great for the next month.

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Patrick Mahomes (+1800) - QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes never fell out of the running for the MVP, but he hasn’t been able to close the distance between himself and the leaders. He ranks ninth in passing yards, is tied for eighth in passing touchdowns, has a TD-to-INT ratio of 19:11, and is eighth in QBR for the 11-1 Chiefs. It seems close to impossible for KC to lose, but Mahomes is going to need to have some 300- and 400-yard turnover-less games to have a shot at winning MVP.

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Who Won the NFL MVP in 2023?

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson won the NFL MVP in 2023 after he led his team to a 13-4 record and the number-one seed in the AFC Championship. Jackson finished the year with 3.678 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, to go with 821 rushing yards and five rushing TDs.

NFL MVP History

The NFL MVP was previously known as the Joe F. Carr Trophy, which was awarded annually from 1938-46. Former New York Giants center and linebacker Mel Hein was the first player to win the Carr Trophy.

The first winner of the modern MVP award, as voted by the Associated Press, was Cleveland Browns fullback Jim Brown in 1957. Coincidentally, Brown is the only rookie and the youngest player ever to win the award.

Former Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning holds the record with five regular-season MVP trophies. New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers is second with four (all of which were won during his time with the Green Bay Packers).

Past NFL MVP Award Winners

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the NFL MVP 

Some states do not allow bettors to wager on the NFL MVP. However, users in those that do have a variety of options that they may use to place their best MVP futures bets.

One of the most important considerations should be line shopping, or hunting to find the best sportsbooks that offer the most favorable odds for your favorite NFL MVP bet. Beyond that, choosing your sportsbook for MVP bets should look very similar to how it would during any other process.

Things to consider include sportsbook bonuses, user interface, accessibility and responsiveness, aesthetics, mobile app, and more. More info on the best NFL betting sites can be found in our detailed guide.

*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.

How to Read NFL MVP Award Winner Odds

Reading MVP odds is exactly like reading most other odds. A “-” preceding a number means that a user must bet the listed amount to win $100. For example, -120 means the bettor must risk $120 to win $100 if the bet hits.

Conversely, a “+” preceding a number means that the user will win that amount with a $100 bet. So a +400 candidate will win $400 with a $100 bet if they go on to win the NFL MVP award.

Favorites are sometimes but not always indicated by a “-.” Because there are a plethora of options, most candidates will be plus-money (“+”) until the MVP race really takes shape and one or two players emerge as the top favorites.