NFL MVP Winner Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds 2021/2022

  • Last year’s MVP winner, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers, has the best odds to win here
  • The GOAT Tom Brady is the second MVP favorite, a three-time winner already
  • The MVP Award will be announced on Saturday, Feb. 12, the day before the Super Bowl

Every season almost two thousand NFL players are active, and out of those a Most Valuable Player is chosen, the playmaker who was the most critical to his team’s success, a rare and enviable honor that few football resumes can claim.

The oddsmakers already have an idea of who the favorites are, so here we share our predictions, odds, and picks for the 2021/22 NFL MVP winner.

See also our predictions for who will be the Super Bowl MVP winner.

MVP Winner Odds

The odds for the NFL MVP are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.

MVP Winner Odds
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers QB -500
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +350
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams WR +2000
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals QB +2500
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts RB +3500
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles QB +50000

MVP Winner Predictions & Picks

If voters can forget his off-the-field controversies, QB Aaron Rodgers will most likely earn a follow-up MVP award for the way he used his veteran-savvy and powerful arm to lead his team to the postseason yet again.

Our Pick:

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers

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MVP Predictions

Favorites to Win

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers QB

When you look at Aaron Rodgers 2021 stats it is not tough to see why he is the front runner to win the MVP award, so far this season with 353 completions off 513 attempts for almost 4,000 yards and 35 touchdowns with just 4 interceptions, a highly motivated team leader who always seems to find a way to win.

This season Rodgers started off slow, his first game a blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints, 3-38, an embarrassing game for the entire Packers team in which the reigning MVP threw half of his interceptions (2) for the season, but since then he has gone 13-2, the team’s other loss credited to his young backup, Jordan Love, who started for a Covid positive Aaron in Week 7.

The one thing that future Hall of Famer Rodgers has working against him is his off the field controversy in terms of the Covid vaccine after he used wordplay to infer to the press that he had been vaccinated when he had not, a blunder that he has followed up with odd public comments that have MVP voters questioning if that disqualifies him from earning the award.

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB

It’s not like Tampa Bay’s former QB Tom Brady needs another MVP award – he already has three – but the way he followed up his championship season with another impressive run puts his name in the MVP conversation, especially when one considers that Brady is well into his forties, ancient for an NFL athlete.

Watching Brady play is, some have said, like getting to see a coach on the field with the ball, his veteran football IQ allowing him to read defenses before the snap and make adjustments, this season the top ranked at his position with stats that his peers envy, like 456 completions off 682 attempts for 4,990 yards and 40 touchdowns, all league leading stats that make him special.

Tom’s front line has kept him safe with only 21 sacks on the season (same as last year), and his 12 interceptions are still few enough to have not hurt the team too badly, so expect the MVP voters to pay attention to this now retired, once-in-a-lifetime athlete who took his Buccaneers back to the postseason for the second time in his two seasons under center for Tampa’s HC Bruce Arians.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams WR

Considering no NFL wide receiver has even been awarded the league MVP award, it would be something else if the Rams playmaking ball catcher Cooper Kupp could earn the award, his ability to get open and run crisp routes a huge part of why these Rams have made it all the way to the Super Bowl.

This regular season, Kupp posted what is known as the wide receiver triple crown by leading the league in receptions (145), receiving yards (1,947) and receiving touchdowns (16), the type of production that head coaches like Sean McVay dream about since Kupp gives their run game and deep threat receivers plenty of free space in which to operate.

Don’t expect Kupp to walk easily into the award, but if he has a huge Super Bowl and helps his Rams win their first super bowl in in the 2,000’s, it might make it tough for MVP voters to ignore how important this playmaker was to the Los Angeles football franchise, his presence on the field forcing defenses to shift their game plans and ,despite that, he still excels.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals QB

With QB Joe Burrow under center, the Cincinnati Bengals won the AFC North, the AFC Championship, and now a trip to the Super Bowl for HC Zac Taylor and his roster full of young playmakers including Burrow, a superstar who sat out most of last season after knee surgery but who has proven to be healthy and mobile this year.

It’s not just Burrow’s rocket arm or size – 6’ 4” and 221 pounds – that make him special, though those qualities sure help him win some games, but it’s more his maturity as a team leader and quarterback field general that make his play stand out this season, so far completing a league leading 70.4 percent of his passes, quite a few of them to his former LSU pal Ja’Marr Chase.

Burrow’s play was critical to the Bengals’ success this season, his ability to take his team down the field for game-winning drives an exciting sight to see, and his numbers – 366 completions for 4,611 yards and 34 touchdowns with 14 interceptions – are quality and have him ranked fifth at his position in the league, all making him the odds makers’ fourth favorite to win the MVP.

No Chance to Win

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles QB

The reason why Philly QB Jalen Hurts is such a longshot here has nothing to do with his excellent play this season, his 8-7 record as the starter for the Eagles good enough to earn his team an NFC wildcard spot, a welcome postseason appearance after missing out last season in fourth place of the NFC East.

Hurts is in his second NFL season, last year with a 1-3 record as the rookie starting QB, all solid reps that the young talented playmaker has used to his developmental advantage, now a more seasoned tackle evader who can use his speed and agility to escape the pocket and earn first downs and more, this year with 139 carries for 784 yards and 10 touchdowns.

It looks like Hurts has played well enough in his first two seasons to give the Philadelphia front office enough proof that he could be the franchise QB of the future, but it could be a while before the youthful Jalen becomes an MVP frontrunner, not a big deal most likely for a guy who just wants to help his 9-7 team earn some more wins.

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How to Watch 2021 / 22 NFL Postseason

2021 / 22 NFL Postseason
What 2021 / 22 NFL Postseason
Where USA + International
When Starts: Saturday, January 15 thru Sunday, Feb 13
How to watch CBS / ESPN / Fox / NBC / NFLN

NFL MVP by Year

Here is a list of every NFL MVP winner by year:

Year Player Team
2020 Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers
2019 Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens
2018 Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs
2017 Tom Brady New England Patriots
2016 Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons
2015 Cam Newton Carolina Panthers
2014 Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers
2013 Peyton Manning Denver Broncos
2012 Adrian Peterson Minnesota Vikings
2011 Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers
2010 Tom Brady New England Patriots
2009 Peyton Manning Indianapolis Colts
2008 Peyton Manning Indianapolis Colts
2007 Tom Brady New England Patriots
2006 LaDainian Tomlinson San Diego Chargers
2005 Shaun Alexander Seattle Seahawks
2004 Peyton Manning Indianapolis Colts
2003 Steve McNair Tennessee Titans
2003 Peyton Manning Indianapolis Colts
2002 Rich Gannon Oakland Raiders
2001 Kurt Warner St. Louis Rams
2000 Marshall Faulk St. Louis Rams
1999 Kurt Warner St. Louis Rams
1998 Terrell Davis Denver Broncos
1997 Barry Sanders Detroit Lions
1997 Brett Favre Green Bay Packers
1996 Brett Favre Green Bay Packers
1995 Brett Favre Green Bay Packers
1994 Steve Young San Francisco 49ers
1993 Emmitt Smith Dallas Cowboys
1992 Steve Young San Francisco 49ers
1991 Thurman Thomas Buffalo Bills
1990 Joe Montana San Francisco 49ers
1989 Joe Montana San Francisco 49ers
1988 Boomer Esiason Cincinnati Bengals
1987 John Elway Denver Broncos
1986 Lawrence Taylor New York Giants
1985 Marcus Allen Los Angeles Raiders
1984 Dan Marino Miami Dolphins
1983 Joe Theismann Washington Redskins
1982 Mark Moseley Washington Redskins
1981 Ken Anderson Cincinnati Bengals
1980 Brian Sipe Cleveland Browns
1979 Earl Campbell Houston Oilers
1978 Terry Bradshaw Pittsburgh Steelers
1977 Walter Payton Chicago Bears
1976 Bert Jones Baltimore Colts
1975 Fran Tarkenton Minnesota Vikings
1974 Ken Stabler Oakland Raiders
1973 O.J. Simpson Buffalo Bills
1972 Larry Brown Washington Redskins
1971 Alan Page Minnesota Vikings
1970 John Brodie San Francisco 49ers
1969 Roman Gabriel Los Angeles Rams
1968 Earl Morrall Baltimore Colts
1967 Johnny Unitas Baltimore Colts
1966 Bart Starr Green Bay Packers
1965 Jim Brown Cleveland Browns
1964 Johnny Unitas Baltimore Colts
1963 Y.A. Tittle New York Giants
1962 Jim Taylor Green Bay Packers
1961 Paul Hornung Green Bay Packers
1960 Norm Van Brocklin Philadelphia Eagles
1959 Johnny Unitas Baltimore Colts
1958 Jim Brown Cleveland Browns
1957 Jim Brown Cleveland Browns

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Who Was the 2020 NFL MVP?

Last season Aaron Rodgers beat out his main competitor Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs for the coveted title of MVP.

Aaron came to be the MVP due to his stellar stats. Looking at almost any metric one can see that Aaron was a dominant force on the field. The Green Bay QB led in passing touchdowns, passer ratings, and completion percentages. He also has one of the lowest interception percentages in the league.

This was not his first MVP win. He also snatched the title in 2011 and 2014, meaning that he now has three titles to his name. Only Peyton Manning has more.

Does the NFL MVP Get Money?

The winner of the NFL MVP receives a cool-looking trophy. As for cash and other prizes (like the new automobile that Super Bowl MVPs used to receive), there is not a lot of evidence that those types of accolades are handed out to the MVP.

Of course, when you are awarding multi-millionaire athletes, it’s mostly the rare trophy and unique bragging rights that carry the value, since they are already floating around in plenty of money and material goods.

Do Fans Vote for NFL MVP?

No, the fans actually have nothing to do with who receives the NFL MVP award.

Fans’ votes actually do count towards which players make the Pro Bowl (in addition to the coaches’ and players’ votes) but not the MVP.

The AP Most Valuable Player award (which, among all the MVP awards out there, is considered the de facto version for the league) is determined through a voting process involving a panel of 50 sportswriters who regularly follow the NFL, a list that remains fairly consistent from year to year.

When and Where Will the NFL MVP Award Winner Be Announced?

The voting for the NFL MVP is done at the end of the regular season, right before the playoffs get started, and the winner of the award is typically announced to the public the day before the Super Bowl takes place, which is always sometime at the beginning of February.

This year, the location of the NFL Honors ceremony has yet to be determined, but if history is any indication of the type of halls the NFL prefers to use, it will be a site worthy of this prestigious player award.

The NFL Honors ceremony will be televised, though a network and host for the show have yet to be determined (the last two years it was comedian Steve Harvey and in 2017 it was comedian, Rob Riggle).

Who Was the First NFL MVP Winner?

The first winner of the AP MVP was awarded back in 1957 to Cleveland Browns running back Jim Brown, although technically in the record book it was called the “NFL Most Outstanding Player Award” that year and didn’t take its current form until after the 1962 season.

Brown also won the award in 1958, when he shared the honor with Baltimore Colts defensive end Gino Marchetti.

In 1965, after the honor became dubbed the MVP Award, Brown won it again for the third and last time in his career.

Who Was the Last Non-QB to Win MVP?

The last non-QB to win the NFL MVP honors was running back Adrian Peterson after the 2012 season.

This accolade favors offensive players, and since 1962 when the prize officially became known as the MVP award, of the 57 winners, 54 of them have played on offense.

There have been 38 quarterback winners and 16 running backs, with just 2 defensive players winning the award – Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle Alan Page in 1971 and New York Giants linebacker Lawrence Taylor in 1986.

Has a Wide Receiver Ever Won an NFL MVP?

No, never, but once a placekicker did.

In 1982, Washington Redskins placekicker Mark Moseley snagged the award after making 20-of-21 field goals (95.2% of them, which was then a record) and making 16-of-19 extra-point attempts.

That happened during the year the Skins won Super Bowl XVII over the Miami Dolphins by a score of 27-17 in the strike-shortened season, a game where Moseley kicked two field goals and was successful on all three of these extra-point attempts.

Has a Rookie Player Ever Won the NFL MVP?

Yes, Jim Brown in 1957, although, as stated above, it was not called the MVP award back then, instead went by the name of the “NFL Most Outstanding Player Award.”

Towards the end of the 2016 season, Dallas Cowboys rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott came close to winning the award, but quarterback Matt Ryan ended up taking the prize despite his Atlanta Falcons losing in overtime to the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI by a score of 28-34.

Who Is the Youngest NFL MVP Ever?

To be the most valuable player in the league not only takes skill and talent, but it also takes experience and football IQ, something that most younger players tend to lack (at least compared to those veterans already playing in the league).

The youngest player to ever win the NFL MVP happened in 2019 when 23-year-old quarterback Lamar Jackson took home the award after a breakthrough season in which he lead the Baltimore Ravens to the playoffs.

Before Jackson, Kansas City Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes had been the youngest player to win the MVP in the season prior, also 23-years-old at the time.

Who Is the Oldest Player to Win NFL MVP?

Football players famously ‘retire’ young, the game being so brutal that most human bodies can’t withstand the punishment for more than a few years before injuries determine a player’s future instead of their talent.

The oldest player to ever win the MVP award is (of course) GOAT quarterback Tom Brady of the now Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who was 40-years old when he won it at the end of the 2017 season.

Brady has also won the award in 2010 and in 2007, making his MVP total 3.

Which NFL Player Has Won the Most MVP Honors?

That would be quarterback Peyton Manning, who won the award a whopping 5 times over the course of his 18-year NFL career with two different teams.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Manning shared his first MVP in 2003 with Tennessee Titans quarterback Steve McNair and then won the award again with the Colts in 2004, 2008, and 2009.

Peyton’s final MVP came in 2013 after he had been traded to the Denver Broncos and took them to Super Bowl XLVIII, which they sadly lost to the Seattle Seahawks by a lopsided score of 8-43.

Are There Any NFL Franchises That Have NEVER Produced an MVP Winner?

Yes, actually there are 7 NFL teams who have never yielded an MVP award winner.

They are the:

  • New York Jets
  • Houston Texans
  • Jacksonville Jaguars
  • St. Louis/Phoenix/Arizona Cardinals
  • Philadelphia Eagles
  • New Orleans Saints
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Mike Lukas

Expert on NFL

Mike Lukas is a retired standup comedian turned freelance writer now living in Dallas, Texas, originally from Cleveland, Ohio. His love for the game of football and all things Cleveland Browns turned Mike into a pro blogger years ago. Now Mike enjoys writing about all thirty-two NFL teams, hoping to help football gamblers gain a slight edge in their pursuit of the perfect wager. Email: [email protected]