2021/2022 NFL MVP Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds

  • Currently, the Chiefs’ multi-talented QB Patrick Mahomes is favored to win this prop bet
  • Last year’s winner, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers, has the second-best odds to win MVP
  • Our longshot with nearly impossible odds is Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery

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Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, updated on October 25, 2021.

Player Odds
Josh Allen +400
Kyler Murray +450
Dax Prescott +500
Tom Brady +750
Matt Stafford +800
Aaron Rodgers +1400
Justin Herbert +1800
Lamar Jackson +2500
Patrick Mahomes +4000
Josh Allen +1200
Russell Wilson +1600
Baker Mayfield +3300
Ryan Tannehill +4000
Carson Wentz +4000
Deshaun Watson +5000
Derrick Henry +5000
Christian McCaffrey +5000
Joe Burrow +5000
Kirk Cousins +5000
Jalen Hurts +5000
Tua Tagovailoa +6000
Jameis Winston +6000
Dalvin Cook +6600
Derek Carr +8000
Trevor Lawrence +7000
Alvin Kamara +10000
Saquon Barkley +10000
Nick Chubb +10000
Jared Goff +12500
Daniel Jones +15000

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2021 NFL Regular Season MVP Winner Predictions & Picks

After such a disappointing showing in the last Super Bowl, get ready for Patrick Mahomes’ revenge tour in 2021 and expect him to earn the MVP honors along the way.


Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes

How to Watch 2021/22 NFL Regular Season

NFL Regular Season
What 2021/22 NFL Regular Season
Where USA + International
When Thu, Sept 9 thru TBD
How to watch CBS/ESPN/Fox/NBC/NFLN

Favorites to Win

Patrick Mahomes, Kanas City Chiefs QB

The favorite here, a former league MVP (2018) and Offensive Player of the Year (2018) who has already won a Super Bowl, LIV, and was named MVP of that game, with quickness from under center and arm skills unmatched in this league.

Mahomes and his Chiefs did not impress anyone with their play in the last Super Bowl – they lost to the Bucs 9-31 and Mahomes threw zero touchdowns – so expect that to fuel the fire that will be lit underneath this multi-faceted player who is only 25-years old and in his fifth NFL season.

In three full seasons under center for Kansas City, Mahomes has completed 66 percent of his passes for 1,114 completions and 14,152 total yards with 114 touchdowns and just 24 interceptions on top of 172 carries for 808 yards and 6 more touchdowns.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers QB

The reason Rodgers won these league MVP honors last season is that he played lights out all year, leading his Packers to the NFC Championship game where they were beaten by the eventual champs, Tampa Bay, 26-31.

Rodgers’ numbers were impressive last season, leading the NFL in several categories by completing almost 71 percent of his passes, throwing for 48 touchdowns, plus posting a touchdown percentage of 9.1 and an interception percentage of just 1.

What would help earn Rodgers back-to-back MVP honors would be a trip to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2010, when he and Green Bay beat the Steelers in XLV, 31-25 and he brought home the game’s MVP award to boot.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills QB

This 24-year old superstar will only be in his fourth NFL season, and already he is in the MVP conversation, mostly because he and head coach Sean McDermott have worked together to improve his consistency and accuracy throwing the ball.

And it paid off last season with a 13-3 record and a trip to the playoffs where Allen and the Bills made it all the way to the AFC Championship game where they were beaten by the Chiefs, 24-38, but only after Buffalo’s young QB made a huge impression.

Last season, Allen threw almost 400 completions for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns with 10 interceptions while also carrying the ball 102 times for 421 yards and 8 more touchdowns, proving to be a double threat to run and throw out of the backfield and promising to be a franchise leader in Buffalo for years to come.

No Chance to Win

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears RB

Nothing against the skills and potential glory that this 23-year old running back for the Bears is capable of next season, he just has no chance to win this MVP award because running backs rarely do, with only around a dozen RB MVPs named in the history of the award.

With a 1,000+ rushing yard in just his second NFL season, Montgomery has proven to be a tough back to tackle, plus his ability to catch the ball – he caught 54 passes last season for 438 yards and 2 touchdowns – makes him double trouble for defenses to game plan around.

The Bears will be able to take better advantage of Montgomery’s set of skills once they settle in on their starting quarterback – they have been doing their best to snag Deshaun Watson – since a consistent passing attack always helps out the team’s runners.

NFL MVP by Year

Here is a list of every NFL MVP winner by year:

Year Player Team
2020 Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers
2019 Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens
2018 Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs
2017 Tom Brady New England Patriots
2016 Matt Ryan Atlanta Falcons
2015 Cam Newton Carolina Panthers
2014 Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers
2013 Peyton Manning Denver Broncos
2012 Adrian Peterson Minnesota Vikings
2011 Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers
2010 Tom Brady New England Patriots
2009 Peyton Manning Indianapolis Colts
2008 Peyton Manning Indianapolis Colts
2007 Tom Brady New England Patriots
2006 LaDainian Tomlinson San Diego Chargers
2005 Shaun Alexander Seattle Seahawks
2004 Peyton Manning Indianapolis Colts
2003 Steve McNair Tennessee Titans
2003 Peyton Manning Indianapolis Colts
2002 Rich Gannon Oakland Raiders
2001 Kurt Warner St. Louis Rams
2000 Marshall Faulk St. Louis Rams
1999 Kurt Warner St. Louis Rams
1998 Terrell Davis Denver Broncos
1997 Barry Sanders Detroit Lions
1997 Brett Favre Green Bay Packers
1996 Brett Favre Green Bay Packers
1995 Brett Favre Green Bay Packers
1994 Steve Young San Francisco 49ers
1993 Emmitt Smith Dallas Cowboys
1992 Steve Young San Francisco 49ers
1991 Thurman Thomas Buffalo Bills
1990 Joe Montana San Francisco 49ers
1989 Joe Montana San Francisco 49ers
1988 Boomer Esiason Cincinnati Bengals
1987 John Elway Denver Broncos
1986 Lawrence Taylor New York Giants
1985 Marcus Allen Los Angeles Raiders
1984 Dan Marino Miami Dolphins
1983 Joe Theismann Washington Redskins
1982 Mark Moseley Washington Redskins
1981 Ken Anderson Cincinnati Bengals
1980 Brian Sipe Cleveland Browns
1979 Earl Campbell Houston Oilers
1978 Terry Bradshaw Pittsburgh Steelers
1977 Walter Payton Chicago Bears
1976 Bert Jones Baltimore Colts
1975 Fran Tarkenton Minnesota Vikings
1974 Ken Stabler Oakland Raiders
1973 O.J. Simpson Buffalo Bills
1972 Larry Brown Washington Redskins
1971 Alan Page Minnesota Vikings
1970 John Brodie San Francisco 49ers
1969 Roman Gabriel Los Angeles Rams
1968 Earl Morrall Baltimore Colts
1967 Johnny Unitas Baltimore Colts
1966 Bart Starr Green Bay Packers
1965 Jim Brown Cleveland Browns
1964 Johnny Unitas Baltimore Colts
1963 Y.A. Tittle New York Giants
1962 Jim Taylor Green Bay Packers
1961 Paul Hornung Green Bay Packers
1960 Norm Van Brocklin Philadelphia Eagles
1959 Johnny Unitas Baltimore Colts
1958 Jim Brown Cleveland Browns
1957 Jim Brown Cleveland Browns

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Who Was the 2020 NFL MVP?

Last season Aaron Rodgers beat out his main competitor Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs for the coveted title of MVP.

Aaron came to be the MVP due to his stellar stats. Looking at almost any metric one can see that Aaron was a dominant force on the field. The Green Bay QB led in passing touchdowns, passer ratings, and completion percentages. He also has one of the lowest interception percentages in the league.

This was not his first MVP win. He also snatched the title in 2011 and 2014, meaning that he now has three titles to his name. Only Peyton Manning has more.

Does the NFL MVP Get Money?

The winner of the NFL MVP receives a cool-looking trophy. As for cash and other prizes (like the new automobile that Super Bowl MVPs used to receive), there is not a lot of evidence that those types of accolades are handed out to the MVP.

Of course, when you are awarding multi-millionaire athletes, it’s mostly the rare trophy and unique bragging rights that carry the value, since they are already floating around in plenty of money and material goods.

Do Fans Vote for NFL MVP?

No, the fans actually have nothing to do with who receives the NFL MVP award.

Fans’ votes actually do count towards which players make the Pro Bowl (in addition to the coaches’ and players’ votes) but not the MVP.

The AP Most Valuable Player award (which, among all the MVP awards out there, is considered the de facto version for the league) is determined through a voting process involving a panel of 50 sportswriters who regularly follow the NFL, a list that remains fairly consistent from year to year.

When and Where Will the NFL MVP Award Winner Be Announced?

The voting for the NFL MVP is done at the end of the regular season, right before the playoffs get started, and the winner of the award is typically announced to the public the day before the Super Bowl takes place, which is always sometime at the beginning of February.

This year, the location of the NFL Honors ceremony has yet to be determined, but if history is any indication of the type of halls the NFL prefers to use, it will be a site worthy of this prestigious player award.

The NFL Honors ceremony will be televised, though a network and host for the show have yet to be determined (the last two years it was comedian Steve Harvey and in 2017 it was comedian, Rob Riggle).

Who Was the First NFL MVP Winner?

The first winner of the AP MVP was awarded back in 1957 to Cleveland Browns running back Jim Brown, although technically in the record book it was called the “NFL Most Outstanding Player Award” that year and didn’t take its current form until after the 1962 season.

Brown also won the award in 1958, when he shared the honor with Baltimore Colts defensive end Gino Marchetti.

In 1965, after the honor became dubbed the MVP Award, Brown won it again for the third and last time in his career.

Who Was the Last Non-QB to Win MVP?

The last non-QB to win the NFL MVP honors was running back Adrian Peterson after the 2012 season.

This accolade favors offensive players, and since 1962 when the prize officially became known as the MVP award, of the 57 winners, 54 of them have played on offense.

There have been 38 quarterback winners and 16 running backs, with just 2 defensive players winning the award – Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle Alan Page in 1971 and New York Giants linebacker Lawrence Taylor in 1986.

Has a Wide Receiver Ever Won an NFL MVP?

No, never, but once a placekicker did.

In 1982, Washington Redskins placekicker Mark Moseley snagged the award after making 20-of-21 field goals (95.2% of them, which was then a record) and making 16-of-19 extra-point attempts.

That happened during the year the Skins won Super Bowl XVII over the Miami Dolphins by a score of 27-17 in the strike-shortened season, a game where Moseley kicked two field goals and was successful on all three of these extra-point attempts.

Has a Rookie Player Ever Won the NFL MVP?

Yes, Jim Brown in 1957, although, as stated above, it was not called the MVP award back then, instead went by the name of the “NFL Most Outstanding Player Award.”

Towards the end of the 2016 season, Dallas Cowboys rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott came close to winning the award, but quarterback Matt Ryan ended up taking the prize despite his Atlanta Falcons losing in overtime to the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI by a score of 28-34.

Who Is the Youngest NFL MVP Ever?

To be the most valuable player in the league not only takes skill and talent, but it also takes experience and football IQ, something that most younger players tend to lack (at least compared to those veterans already playing in the league).

The youngest player to ever win the NFL MVP happened in 2019 when 23-year-old quarterback Lamar Jackson took home the award after a breakthrough season in which he lead the Baltimore Ravens to the playoffs.

Before Jackson, Kansas City Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes had been the youngest player to win the MVP in the season prior, also 23-years-old at the time.

Who Is the Oldest Player to Win NFL MVP?

Football players famously ‘retire’ young, the game being so brutal that most human bodies can’t withstand the punishment for more than a few years before injuries determine a player’s future instead of their talent.

The oldest player to ever win the MVP award is (of course) GOAT quarterback Tom Brady of the now Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who was 40-years old when he won it at the end of the 2017 season.

Brady has also won the award in 2010 and in 2007, making his MVP total 3.

Which NFL Player Has Won the Most MVP Honors?

That would be quarterback Peyton Manning, who won the award a whopping 5 times over the course of his 18-year NFL career with two different teams.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Manning shared his first MVP in 2003 with Tennessee Titans quarterback Steve McNair and then won the award again with the Colts in 2004, 2008, and 2009.

Peyton’s final MVP came in 2013 after he had been traded to the Denver Broncos and took them to Super Bowl XLVIII, which they sadly lost to the Seattle Seahawks by a lopsided score of 8-43.

Are There Any NFL Franchises That Have NEVER Produced an MVP Winner?

Yes, actually there are 7 NFL teams who have never yielded an MVP award winner.

They are the:

  • New York Jets
  • Houston Texans
  • Jacksonville Jaguars
  • St. Louis/Phoenix/Arizona Cardinals
  • Philadelphia Eagles
  • New Orleans Saints
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Mike Lukas

Expert on NFL

Mike Lukas is a retired standup comedian turned freelance writer now living in Dallas, Texas, originally from Cleveland, Ohio. His love for the game of football and all things Cleveland Browns turned Mike into a pro blogger years ago. Now Mike enjoys writing about all thirty-two NFL teams, hoping to help football gamblers gain a slight edge in their pursuit of the perfect wager. Email: [email protected]