Best Patriots vs. Broncos Prop Bets: AFC Conference Championship Brings a Defensive Slugfest

• Bo Nix suffered a season ending injury in last week’s win against Buffalo

• Rhamondre Stevenson is averaging 4.7 Yards per Carry in the playoffs

• The Denver Broncos front seven ranks in the top-10 in Run Defense Line Yards

Since the start of the playoffs, Rhamondre Stevenson has been able to help New England’s offense stay ahead of the sticks as the Patriots running back is averaging 4.7 Yards per Carry. Unfortunately for Stevenson, negative regression looms large in the AFC Conference Championship as he faces off against a Denver Broncos front seven who excels at stuffing the run with their interior pressure.

Best Patriots vs. Broncos Prop Bets

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Rhamondre Stevenson Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It has been a roller coaster of a regular season for Rhamondre Stevenson as the New England Patriots lead back has struggled to stay on the field while ranking below league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt. His offensive line has played a major role in his low level of play as the Patriots front five ranks in the bottom ten in Run Block Set Grade.

Heading into the AFC Conference Championship, expect Stevenson to struggle to get past the trenches as he faces off against a Denver Broncos front seven who resides near the top of the board in Run Defense Line Yards. With the Broncos defensive line collapsing the interior, Stevenson will consistently be slowed down in the back field which lowers his chances of generating an explosive run.

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Rhamondre Stevenson Longest Rush Under 12.5 Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

To make matters worse for Stevenson, the Broncos blitz their linebackers at one of the highest rates in the league which will force him to combat against more bodies in the trenches. Barring a busted play, expect Stevenson to be contained at the line of scrimmage for the full duration of the contest. TreVeyon Henderson has also recently chipped away at his workload which will lead to a decrease in Stevenson’s total number of Rush Attempts.

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Jarrett Stidham Over 18.5 Pass Completions (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After Bo Nix went down with an injury, the Broncos are turning towards Jarrett Stidham to keep their hopes of winning the Super Bowl alive. While the transition to Stidham will cause some hiccups, he will at least get the benefit of playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL as the Broncos front five leads the league in Pass Block Success Rate.

Fortunately for Stidham, the Patriots lack of pressure will help him avoid having to make plays with his legs as their defensive line ranks near dead last in Pass Rush Win Rate. With more time in the pocket to let his plays develop, the Broncos pass catchers will be able to create space from the Patriots corners which will increase the quality of his passing lanes.

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RJ Harvey Over 64.5 Rushing+Receiving Yards (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even though RJ Harvey has been inefficient on the ground this season, he has made up for it through the air as the Broncos running back is averaging 7.6 Yards per Reception. His versatility has helped turn the Broncos offense into a well rounded unit as their offense ranks above league average in Off DVOA.

In a favorable matchup against the Patriots, expect Harvey to find more success on the ground as he faces off against a front seven who ranks below league average in Run Defense PFF Grade. For some more exposure, escalator bet Harvey’s Rushing+Receiving Yardage prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs at the best available odds.

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