Image for Richard Janvrin Richard Janvrin - January 18, 2023

NFL SNF Best Props Week 18

NFL Week 18 SNF Props

The final game of the last week of the NFL regular season features the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.

If the Packers win, they’ll nab the No. 7 seed in the NFC

If the win Lions win and the Los Angeles Rams beat or tie with the Seattle Seahawks, they’ll get the No. 7 seed.

Here, we’ll look into this game through the lens of the best player props.

Let’s dive in. 

Aaron Rodgers Under 22.5 Completions (-125) at DraftKings

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The Packers are rolling right now, and a big part of their success is the run game, featuring a mix of A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones. 

Since Week 11, Rodgers has only topped 22.5 completions two times. 

Looking back at the Packers Week 9 matchup against the Lions, Rodgers barely went over this line, completing 23 passes inside the dome of Ford Field. 

Headed into this game, the Lions have a defense that’s been so severely beaten on the ground that the Packers and Rodgers won’t have a massive need to continue throwing. 

Rodgers has four straight games with a single touchdown pass, so he’ll do some throwing, but when you’re facing a team in the Lions that’s allowing 190 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks, look for the Packers to rely on their strengths and put this game away as home favorites. 

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Christian Watson Any Time TD (+160) at Caesars

Caesars

9/10

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As mentioned, Rodgers has at least one passing touchdown over his past four games. Despite how bad Rodgers’ season has been relative to his recent success, he does have at least one touchdown pass in every game this season except Week 1. 

A big part of Rodgers’ recent success in the passing game has been Watson. 

Since Week 10, Watson has dipped below six targets in just one game—Week 17 against the Minnesota Vikings. 

Watson is set to match up primarily against cornerback Jerry Jacobs who, when heavily targeted, tends to get beat up on. 

He hasn’t allowed a single touchdown this season but based on his numbers and against a young deep threat, this could be the week where it happens. 

Since Week 12, Jacobs has allowed a single-game reception rate of 61.5% or higher four times. In that same stretch, he has two games in which he was targeted 10 or more times.

Look for Rodgers to get his rookie receiver going to help put the Lions away with a statement touchdown. 

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Jared Goff Over 250.5 Passing Yards  (-115) at DraftKings

DraftKings

9/10

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The Lions offense has been rolling for quite some time.

This team that no one thought would be relevant has scored 30 points or more in a game eight times. 

With a line of 250.5 passing yards, Goff has topped this line five weeks in a row. 

The Packers defense allows 195.6 passing yards per game this season and 207.3 over their last three games. 

However, the Lions are fearless in passing the ball. Since Week 12, Goff has 37 or more attempts in all but one game. 

If the Lions want a shot at winning this game, they’ll need to keep passing the ball. 

Pending a change in weather, look for Goff to sling the ball all evening long. 

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AUTHOR

Richard Janvrin

345 Articles

After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.

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