Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Expect the Toronto Maple Leafs to Get Off to a Hot Start

With the Montreal Canadiens defense struggling to play at a competitive level, the Toronto Maple Leafs are in a great position to get off to a hot start and light up the scoreboard. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Edmonton Oilers as the newly extended Connor McDavid has the opportunity to put together a dominant performance against a Calgary back line who underwhelms in coverage.

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Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs - Prop Bets (7:00 PM, EST)

The Toronto Maple Leafs Team Total Over 3 (-155) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After taking the reigning Stanley Cup champions to a game seven in the second round of the playoffs, the Toronto Maple Leafs are poised to make another deep run as they bring back a majority of their offense who ranked top-12 in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Even with Mitch Marner being traded away to Vegas, the Maple Leafs still possess plenty of playmakers as seven players averaged over 0.20 Expected Goals per game last season.

In their season debut against Montreal, the Maple Leafs high level of production on offense will be on full display as they face off against a Canadiens back line who ranked near dead last in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. Their lack of coverage forces their goaltender Sam Montembeault to consistently shift across the crease which opens up higher quality shooting lanes. Should the Maple Leafs team total climb up to 3.5, then reduce the size of your wager.

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Auston Matthews Anytime Goal Scorer (+110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even in a down year by his standards, Auston Matthews still excelled at pressuring the net as the star center averaged nearly four Shots on Goal per game and an Expected Goal of 0.61. With his linemates pulling defensive attention away from him, Matthews will see an uptick in his volume of shot attempts while consistently exploiting the Canadiens gaps in coverage in their back line.

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Boston Bruins vs. Washington Capitals - Prop Bets (7:30 PM, EST)

Full Game Over 5.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Heading into the year, the Washington Capitals were expected to be a fringe playoff contender per their preseason odds to make the postseason. They quickly brushed aside their mediocre projections as they kept pace with the Winnipeg Jets for the Presidents’ Trophy and even advanced to the second round of the playoffs. Their offense played a major role in their success as their front line ranked top-10 in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.34 Expected Goals per game.

Unfortunately for Washington, negative regression looms large as Logan Thompson’s high level of play in net is unsustainable while protected by a back line who finished just league average in Expected Goals Against. Expect regression to rear its ugly head which increases Boston’s chances of matching their pace of scoring. For some more exposure, escalator bet the full game total by placing smaller wagers on the alternate overs at the best available odds across multiple sportsbooks.

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Calgary Flames vs. Edmonton Oilers - Prop Bets (10:00 PM, EST)

Connor McDavid Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-160) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Edmonton Oiler fans can breathe a sigh of relief knowing their three time Hart Memorial Trophy winner will be around a little while longer after Connor McDavid signed a contract extension. McDavid was pivotal in their success last season as he averaged 0.40 Expected Goals per game. With the Calgary Flames ranking below league average in Expected Goals Against per game, expect McDavid to pressure the net at a consistent rate which increases his chances of generating a Shot on Goal.

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