Alaska Senate Odds 2026: Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan Predictions

Alaska's Senate race, with four candidates on the ballot, has drawn national attention ahead of the 2026 midterms. Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola are considered the two leading candidates, and the race will be decided by rank-choice voting, which Alaska uses for statewide races. On this page, we will go over which candidate is in the lead, why this race has attracted so much attention, and how you can trade event contracts on the Alaska Senate race and other elections during the midterms.

Who’s Winning the Alaska Senate Race?

The best prediction markets, like Kalshi, list Peltola as the current favorite to win the Alaska Senate race. Kalshi lists Peltola as having a 76% chance of being the eventual winner, with Sullivan trailing at a 24% probability of winning the election. Peltola has held an edge over Sullivan for months, although since the second half of August, the market has viewed him as increasingly likely to win the race. That perceived lead is also reflected in the latest polls. A New York Times and Siena University poll from October 3 had Peltola with a 50-43 advantage over Sullivan.

Track the latest movements in probabilities at Kalshi in the graph below. Start your Kalshi account with Kalshi promo code WSN and grab one of the best prediction market bonuses today: Trade $25 and Get $25.

Alaska Senate winner?

In 2026

• Democratic party 73%
• Republican party 27%

Source: Kalshi. Data is automatically updated according to market conditions.

Alaska Senate Race Explained

Sullivan is a two-term incumbent who was first elected to the Senate in 2014. He won reelection in 2020 by a double-digit margin and is now seeking a third term in the Senate. In August, Alaska held a nonpartisan primary to determine the final four candidates for the Senatorial race. Peltola finished first, earning 49.5% of the vote. Sullivan was second with 41.4%. Finishing a distant third was Dan J. Sullivan, who is no relation to the current Senator Sullivan. Democrat David Leslie finished fourth in the primary but subsequently dropped out of the general election and was replaced by Republican Gerald Heikes.

Of the four candidates on the ballot, three are Republicans, with Peltola being the only Democrat. It’s also worth noting that Alaska uses rank-choice voting. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, the last-place candidate will be eliminated, and votes for that person will be moved to the second choice on each ballot. If no candidate has crossed the 50% threshold after that, the third-place candidate will be eliminated, with the votes for that person going to the second choice on each ballot.

Why the Alaska Result Decides Senate Control

In the last 50 years, only one Democrat has been elected Senator in Alaska, and he only served one term before losing his reelection bid. The state has otherwise been a Republican stronghold, with Democratic candidates rarely being competitive. However, Democrats believe there is a chance to change that. If the Democrats can win a Senate seat in a state that Republicans have controlled for a long time, it would go a long way toward flipping the minimum of four seats they need to gain control of the Senate. If Peltola were to win, it would also say a lot about the current political climate in Alaska, especially with the state’s other Senator, Lisa Murkowski, considering a switch from Republican to independent.

How to Trade the Alaska Senate Market

If you trade on the Alaska Senate race using some of the best political betting sites, you will find that each candidate is attached to a value between 1¢ and 99¢. That is the price per share of a contract for that candidate. The price reflects the implied probability of that candidate winning, so the closer to 99¢ the price, the more likely that candidate is to win, and vice versa for candidates closer to 1¢. Winning contracts resolve for $1 per share, and the profit for that contract is the difference between $1 and the original cost of the contract. For instance, if you traded a contract at 55¢, the profit if that candidate wins is 45¢ per share.

Use Promo Code WSN and Trade at Kalshi

While Peltola is leading the Alaska Senate race right now, a lot could happen between now and election day, especially in a Republican stronghold like Alaska. Peltola has been hit with allegations of abusing staff members, creating a distraction from the policy issues she’s used to become the favorite. Meanwhile, Sullivan is fighting an uphill battle because of his association with Donald Trump, who has a low approval rating in Alaska despite winning the state easily two years ago. Sullivan must use the last few weeks before election day to convince Alaskans that better days are ahead, especially after his second-place finish in the nonpartisan primary.