Maine Senate Odds 2026: Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins Predictions

The Maine Senate race is among those attracting national attention for being one of the most competitive races in the 2026 midterms. On this page, we’ll take an in-depth look at the race, explain why the race is so important, and share how you can trade event contracts on this Senate race and other elections.

Who’s Winning the Maine Senate Race?

Republican incumbent Susan Collins has held her seat in the Senate for 30 years, originally winning her seat in 1996 and being reelected four times. However, retaining that seat is very much in doubt right now. Many of the best prediction markets, including Kalshi, give her Democratic opponent Troy Jackson a 57% probability of winning the Senate seat in November. At the start of July, Collins and Jackson were separated by less than 2%, according to Kalshi. Since then, Jackson has held a sizable lead in Kalshi’s projections. That being said, recent polling suggests this race could easily go either way. A CBS News poll from September 24 showed a 50-50 split between Collins and Jackson.

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Maine Senate winner?

In 2026

• Democratic party 57%
• Republican party 43%

Source: Kalshi. Data is automatically updated according to market conditions.

Maine Senate Race Explained

Collins has held her seat in the Senate since being elected in 1996. Despite initially saying she would only serve two terms, Collins is now running for a sixth consecutive term in the Senate. Most of her reelection campaigns have ended in lopsided victories. However, Collins earned just under 51% of the votes in her 2020 win, showing some vulnerability.

On the other side, it’s been a long and winding road for Jackson and the Democrats this election cycle. In the Democratic primary, Graham Platner earned 72% of the vote, making him the nominee to face Collins. But following sexual assault allegations that he continues to deny, Platner dropped out of the race. At a special convention in July, Jackson earned an overwhelming amount of support from delegates, making him the new Democratic nominee to oppose Collins in the Senate race.

Why the Maine Result Decides Senate Control

Needing to flip at least four seats to gain a majority in the Senate, Democrats view Maine as a winnable race. While Collins has been one of the more moderate Republicans in the Senate, it’s still a seat that Republicans have owned for the last 30 years. But if the Democrats can take over a seat that the Republicans have counted on for decades, it would not only get them one seat closer to control of the Senate but also represent a changing of the tide nationally. In other words, if Jackson can defeat Collins in Maine, the Democrats will be confident that they can earn a majority in the Senate.

How to Trade the Maine Senate Market

If you decide to trade on the Maine Senate race or any other midterm election, you will see each candidate have a value attached between 1¢ and 99¢. This is the price per share, reflecting the market’s perception and the implied probability of that candidate winning. The closer to 99¢, the higher the probability of that candidate winning, while candidates closer to 1¢ have a lower chance of winning. After the election, contracts for the winning candidate resolve at $1. The profit per share is the difference between $1 and the cost of the original contract. For instance, if you trade a contract for 55¢, the profit will be 45¢ per share if the candidate wins.

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Even as the favorite according to the best political betting sites, Jackson faces challenges to winning in November. After all, he joined the race late, putting him at a slight disadvantage. He also doesn’t have the same name recognition in Maine as a five-term Senator like Collins. In addition to letting voters get to know him better, Jackson is hoping to align Collins with Donald Trump as much as possible, believing that Maine voters favor a Democratically controlled Senate that will oppose Trump’s policies. However, it’s still possible that Maine voters will feel more comfortable with the candidate they know, which is Collins.