Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty Prediction: WNBA Commissioner's Cup Championship

Written by: Travis Pulver
Updated June 25, 2024
6 min read

The WNBA's in-season tournament will end Tuesday night when the Minnesota Lynx and New York Liberty play for the 2024 Commissioner's Cup. With the game featuring two of the best teams in the 2024 WNBA season, it should be an incredible contest fans and bettors alike can enjoy.

Thanks to the NBA Draft, the game will not take place on the New York Liberty's home court. Instead, it has been moved to UBS Arena in Elmont, New York. Despite getting crushed by the Lynx early in the season, the Liberty opened as 4-point favorites, but the line has since moved to -5.5.

Let's look at the betting odds for the game, along with our preview and prediction.

Lynx vs Liberty Prediction

WNBA Commissioner's Cup Championship Betting Odds for Tuesday, June 25

When these two teams met in Minneapolis on May 25, the Liberty were 7.5-point road favorites. But with the help of 14 three-pointers, the Lynx made quick work of New York, winning with ease, 84-67. New York went on to win eight in a row before losing again (to the Mercury in Phoenix, 99-93).

The Liberty currently has the best record in the WNBA (by percentage points) at 15-3.

As for Minnesota, they dropped their second game and first home loss a few days later to the Aces. They lost again roughly a week later, a nail-biter at the hands of the Mercury in Phoenix, 81-80. Like New York, they've only lost three games but have played fewer (16 total for a record of 13-3).

Get more betting insights with our WNBA Commissioner's Cup Championship Prop Bets.

Here are the betting odds for Lynx vs. Liberty with odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Head over to FanDuel and claim $150 in bonus bets when wagering $5.

Minnesota Lynx+5 (-112)+184O 162 (-110)
New York Liberty-5 (-108)-230U 162 (-110)

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WNBA Commissioner's Cup Championship Prediction

Minnesota Lynx Preview

While the Lynx are one of the more talented teams in the WNBA, the game vs. the Liberty earlier in the year was not as dominant as the final score would make it seem. Minnesota blew out New York in the first period, but then the Liberty returned the favor in the second.

The Lynx carried a four-point lead into halftime, but New York erased it and had the game tied at 55-55 with about three minutes remaining. Then, an 11-0 run by Minnesota blew the game open. The lead was at double digits for most of the fourth.

New York does not have bad perimeter defense, but you can't call it "good," either. The team currently ranks No. 7 in opponent's three-point percentage (33.7%). They were no match for the top three-point shooting team in the WNBA (Minnesota makes 39.8%, No. 1 in the league).

But the real difference maker may have been Minnesota's defense. The Liberty has the second-best three-point percentage but had the misfortune of facing the team with the best perimeter D (Lynx has allowed opponents to make 27.1%).

Bet on Minnesota Lynx at FanDuel 

New York Liberty Preview

Sometimes, a couple of early season losses is just what a team needs to give itself a kick in the pants—and it worked for the Liberty. They went from being the No. 8 offense in the league at 83.3 ppg (from May 14-25) to the best (90.5 ppg from May 29-June 23).

Early on, the Liberty struggled to hit from the three-point range (30.4%) but have since seen that number rise to 38% (second best to the Lynx, 40.4%). Defensively, the difference is negligible, but still one of the better units in the league.

They must be doing something right. Since the early season loss to Minnesota, New York has gone 11-1.

New York will need an offensive onslaught against a formidable defense, which is easier said than done. But they'll need a stellar outing on the defensive end of the court to keep a solid Minnesota offense at bay.

So, there is little room for error if the Liberty are to defend their WNBA Commissioner's Cup title.

Bet on New York Liberty at FanDuel 

WNBA Commissioner's Cup - My Pick

This game is a tough one to choose. New York is more familiar with playing meaningful games, having won the Cup and played in the WNBA Finals last season. While the Liberty are a great team, one that will likely go deep into the playoffs again, they are not the better team between the two.

New York is a great offensive team and has a solid defense. But there isn't a glaring hole in the Lynx, either.

Minnesota will likely try to rain down three-pointers on the Liberty early and often. If they can hit a decent number of them, the Lynx will get out to an early lead that they can hold. But don't expect a double-digit win like last time. Look for the score to be a lot closer this time around.

As good as the Liberty are, I see the Lynx as the better team between the two, and will beat New York again. If you are not as confident in Minnesota, take the points and bet the spread. The Liberty will not win by five (if they do win).

Bet on Lynx ML (+184) at FanDuel 

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How to Watch the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship Game

  • Location: UBS Arena in Elmont,  New York

  • Game Time & Date: 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday, June 25

  • Coverage: Prime Video


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Travis Pulver

Sports Betting Analyst

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Travis Pulver is a lifelong football fan, something he says comes naturally having been born in the football-crazy state of Texas. Through the years, Pulver's love of sports has extended into baseball, basketball, golf, and rugby. Life currently finds him in Indiana with his wife and two kids.
Nationality: American
Education: M.A. in Political Science
Favourite Sportsbook: FanDuel Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: FanDuel Casino
17 years
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