Image for Greg Lea Greg Lea - November 18, 2022

Mexico World Cup Betting Preview: Can They Reach Quinto Partido?

  • Mexico have been knocked out in the round of 16 at every World Cup since 1994

  • El Tri have been drawn into Group C alongside Argentina, Poland, and Saudi Arabia

  • Tata Martino’s side are in danger of falling at the first hurdle in Qatar this winter

World Cup 2022 is about to get started, with Qatar vs Ecuador set to open the tournament on Sunday. Mexico will take to the field for the first time two days later, as they face Poland in Doha. 

El Tri will then face Argentina and Saudi Arabia in Group C, as they seek to advance to the knockout phase of the competition.

Having been knocked out of every World Cup since 1994 at the last-16 stage, Mexico are desperate to contest a ‘quinto partido’ (fifth game) in Qatar. Can they do it, or might Tata Martino’s side crash out in the group phase?

The odds used in this article are from the DraftKings sportsbook, where you can get a deposit bonus of up to $1000 after creating an account.

Mexico World Cup Odds

Stage of Elimination

Odds

Group Stage

-120

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Round of 16

+150

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Quarter-finals

+800

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Semi-finals

+3500

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Runners-up

+8000

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Winner

+13000

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Mexico World Cup Odds

The best online sportsbooks believe there is a real danger that Mexico could fail to make it out of Group C. Optimism is certainly low within the country, with many fans believing that Tata Martino is not the right man for the job.

If El Tri do make it out of the group, the sportsbooks do not believe they will advance beyond the round of 16 - as evidenced by lengthy odds of +800 on a quarter-final berth.

Mexico vs Poland Odds

Match Result

Odds

Mexico

+185

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Draw

+185

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Poland

+185

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With Argentina expected to top Group C and Saudi Arabia likely to finish bottom, this is a crucial match for both Mexico and Poland. The winner will be in pole position to reach the knockout phase, and the loser will have ground to make up immediately.

As you can see from the odds above, there is little to separate these two teams. Given the high stakes, this could be essential viewing on Tuesday.

Argentina vs Mexico Odds

Match Result

Odds

Argentina

-195

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Draw

+300

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Mexico

+550

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Martino’s men will be the underdogs against Argentina, who are among the pre-tournament favorites to lift the trophy next month.

Mexico will look to break quickly down the flanks against the reigning South American champions, but their backline will be severely tested by Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez, et al.

Saudi Arabia vs Mexico Odds

Match Result

Odds

Saudi Arabia

+425

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Draw

+265

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Mexico

-150

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This is a game Mexico simply have to win if they want to advance to the knockout phase. Saudi Arabia are widely considered the weakest side in the group, but that does not mean they should not be underestimated.

Indeed, the Green Falcons finished above Japan and Australia in their qualifying group and the squad has been preparing for this tournament together for months.

Mexico Top Scorer Odds

Player

Odds

Hirving Lozano

+450

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Raul Jimenez

+450

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Henry Martin

+450

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Alexis Vega

+550

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Rogelio Funes Mori

+700

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No Mexico Goalscorer

+1400

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Raul Jimenez would normally be the outright favorite with the best online sportsbooks, but it is unclear how much he will play in Qatar. 

The Wolves striker has spent the last couple of months working with Mexico’s medical staff in a bid to get fit. He was able to play for 45 minutes in a warm-up friendly against Sweden, but Jimenez will still be some way short of full match sharpness.

Henry Martin will start up front if Jimenez is not ready, but Hirving Lozano looks like the best bet to finish as his country’s leading goal-getter. Worryingly for Mexico, the sixth favorite in this market is no scorer. 

Mexico Key Players for World Cup 2022

Now 37 years old, Guillermo Ochoa is still Mexico’s No.1 goalkeeper. He impressed with his sharp reflexes at World Cup 2014 and will once again be integral at this tournament.

Andres Guardado, who is closing in on 180 caps for his country, will bring leadership in midfield, but the key man in that part of the pitch is Edson Alvarez, an elegant player who will lead Mexico’s passing game.

Perhaps the most important player in the Mexico ranks, though, is Hirving Lozano. The Napoli man will provide speed and skill on the right, and El Tri may need him to chip in with a few goals too.

Mexico Most Likely Starting Line-up in the World Cup

Martino looks set to employ a 4-3-3 formation in Qatar, although he has the option of switching to a 4-1-4-1 or even a back three as the tournament progresses. 

Goalkeeper: Guillermo Ochoa.

Defense: Jorge Sanchez, Cesar Montes, Hector Moreno, Jesus Gallardo.

Midfield: Hector Herrera, Edson Alvarez, Andres Guardado.

Offense: Hirving Lozano, Henry Martin, Alexis Vega.

Mexico World Cup Record

Only Brazil, Germany, Argentina, and Italy have appeared at more World Cups than Mexico, who will be involved in this competition for the 17th time this winter. The only tournaments they missed were 1934, 1938, 1974, 1982, and 1990.

Mexico’s best-ever showings came in the two editions they hosted: El Tri reached the quarter-finals in 1970 and 1986, losing to Italy and West Germany respectively. 

As mentioned above, Mexico have been eliminated in the round of 16 at every World Cup since 1994. Four years ago, they finished second in a group containing Sweden, South Korea, and Germany, before bowing out in the first knockout round at the hands of Brazil.

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How to Watch World Cup 2022

  • Location: Qatar

  • Dates: November 20 - December 18 

  • How to Watch: Fox Sports, Telemundo, fuboTV

Image for Greg Lea

AUTHOR

Greg Lea

592 Articles

Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts. Email: [email protected]

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