Mexico World Cup Betting Preview: Can They Reach Quinto Partido?

Written by: Greg Lea
Updated November 18, 2022
5 min read
  • Mexico have been knocked out in the round of 16 at every World Cup since 1994

  • El Tri have been drawn into Group C alongside Argentina, Poland, and Saudi Arabia

  • Tata Martino’s side are in danger of falling at the first hurdle in Qatar this winter

World Cup 2022 is about to get started, with Qatar vs Ecuador set to open the tournament on Sunday. Mexico will take to the field for the first time two days later, as they face Poland in Doha. 

El Tri will then face Argentina and Saudi Arabia in Group C, as they seek to advance to the knockout phase of the competition.

Having been knocked out of every World Cup since 1994 at the last-16 stage, Mexico are desperate to contest a ‘quinto partido’ (fifth game) in Qatar. Can they do it, or might Tata Martino’s side crash out in the group phase?

The odds used in this article are from the DraftKings sportsbook, where you can get a deposit bonus of up to $1000 after creating an account.

Mexico World Cup Odds

Stage of Elimination

Odds

Group Stage

-120

BET NOW

Round of 16

+150

BET NOW

Quarter-finals

+800

BET NOW

Semi-finals

+3500

BET NOW

Runners-up

+8000

BET NOW

Winner

+13000

BET NOW

Mexico World Cup Odds

The best online sportsbooks believe there is a real danger that Mexico could fail to make it out of Group C. Optimism is certainly low within the country, with many fans believing that Tata Martino is not the right man for the job.

If El Tri do make it out of the group, the sportsbooks do not believe they will advance beyond the round of 16 - as evidenced by lengthy odds of +800 on a quarter-final berth.

Mexico vs Poland Odds

Match Result

Odds

Mexico

+185

BET NOW

Draw

+185

BET NOW

Poland

+185

BET NOW

With Argentina expected to top Group C and Saudi Arabia likely to finish bottom, this is a crucial match for both Mexico and Poland. The winner will be in pole position to reach the knockout phase, and the loser will have ground to make up immediately.

As you can see from the odds above, there is little to separate these two teams. Given the high stakes, this could be essential viewing on Tuesday.

Argentina vs Mexico Odds

Match Result

Odds

Argentina

-195

BET NOW

Draw

+300

BET NOW

Mexico

+550

BET NOW

Martino’s men will be the underdogs against Argentina, who are among the pre-tournament favorites to lift the trophy next month.

Mexico will look to break quickly down the flanks against the reigning South American champions, but their backline will be severely tested by Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez, et al.

Saudi Arabia vs Mexico Odds

Match Result

Odds

Saudi Arabia

+425

BET NOW

Draw

+265

BET NOW

Mexico

-150

BET NOW

This is a game Mexico simply have to win if they want to advance to the knockout phase. Saudi Arabia are widely considered the weakest side in the group, but that does not mean they should not be underestimated.

Indeed, the Green Falcons finished above Japan and Australia in their qualifying group and the squad has been preparing for this tournament together for months.

Mexico Top Scorer Odds

Player

Odds

Hirving Lozano

+450

BET NOW

Raul Jimenez

+450

BET NOW

Henry Martin

+450

BET NOW

Alexis Vega

+550

BET NOW

Rogelio Funes Mori

+700

BET NOW

No Mexico Goalscorer

+1400

BET NOW

Raul Jimenez would normally be the outright favorite with the best online sportsbooks, but it is unclear how much he will play in Qatar. 

The Wolves striker has spent the last couple of months working with Mexico’s medical staff in a bid to get fit. He was able to play for 45 minutes in a warm-up friendly against Sweden, but Jimenez will still be some way short of full match sharpness.

Henry Martin will start up front if Jimenez is not ready, but Hirving Lozano looks like the best bet to finish as his country’s leading goal-getter. Worryingly for Mexico, the sixth favorite in this market is no scorer. 

Mexico Key Players for World Cup 2022

Now 37 years old, Guillermo Ochoa is still Mexico’s No.1 goalkeeper. He impressed with his sharp reflexes at World Cup 2014 and will once again be integral at this tournament.

Andres Guardado, who is closing in on 180 caps for his country, will bring leadership in midfield, but the key man in that part of the pitch is Edson Alvarez, an elegant player who will lead Mexico’s passing game.

Perhaps the most important player in the Mexico ranks, though, is Hirving Lozano. The Napoli man will provide speed and skill on the right, and El Tri may need him to chip in with a few goals too.

Mexico Most Likely Starting Line-up in the World Cup

Martino looks set to employ a 4-3-3 formation in Qatar, although he has the option of switching to a 4-1-4-1 or even a back three as the tournament progresses. 

Goalkeeper: Guillermo Ochoa.

Defense: Jorge Sanchez, Cesar Montes, Hector Moreno, Jesus Gallardo.

Midfield: Hector Herrera, Edson Alvarez, Andres Guardado.

Offense: Hirving Lozano, Henry Martin, Alexis Vega.

Mexico World Cup Record

Only Brazil, Germany, Argentina, and Italy have appeared at more World Cups than Mexico, who will be involved in this competition for the 17th time this winter. The only tournaments they missed were 1934, 1938, 1974, 1982, and 1990.

Mexico’s best-ever showings came in the two editions they hosted: El Tri reached the quarter-finals in 1970 and 1986, losing to Italy and West Germany respectively. 

As mentioned above, Mexico have been eliminated in the round of 16 at every World Cup since 1994. Four years ago, they finished second in a group containing Sweden, South Korea, and Germany, before bowing out in the first knockout round at the hands of Brazil.

How We Rate
Affiliate Disclaimer
21+
Logo #1

FanDuel

4.8/5

Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets

21+ | Terms and conditions apply

Logo #2

BetRivers

4.1/5

$500 Bonus Bet

21+ | VA only | Gambling problem? Call 1-800-532-3500

How to Watch World Cup 2022

  • Location: Qatar

  • Dates: November 20 - December 18 

  • How to Watch: Fox Sports, Telemundo, fuboTV

21+ | Terms and conditions apply
Claim Now
Image for Greg Lea

Greg Lea

Soccer Betting Analyst

Expertise:
Premier League
Champions League
Bundesliga
La Liga
Betting Picks
Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Arts in Politics
Favourite Sportsbook: bet365 Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: BetMGM Casino
Experience:
10 years
We've been featured on:
espn logo
reuters logo
cbs-news logo
forbes logo
entrepreneur logo
entrepreneur logo
We only list licensed sportsbooks
WorldSportsNetwork
WorldSportsNetwork
WorldSportsNetwork
WorldSportsNetwork
WorldSportsNetwork

We support responsible gambling. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly. If you need help, call 1-800-Gambler.

WSN.com is managed by Gentoo Media. Unless declared otherwise, all of the visible content on this site, such as texts and images, including the brand name and logo, belongs to Innovation Labs Limited (a Gentoo Media company) - Company Registration Number C44130, VAT ID: MT18874732, @GIG Beach Triq id-Dragunara, St. Julians, STJ3148, Malta.

Advertising Disclosure: WSN.com contains links to partner websites. When a visitor to our website clicks on one of these links and makes a purchase at a partner site, World Sports Network is paid a commission.

Copyright © 2024