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2026 World Cup Odds: Who Will Take the Trophy?

Updated: May 26, 2026, 04:10 AM ET
7 min read

For the first time ever, 48 teams will compete at World Cup 2026, but only a few of those have a realistic chance of taking the trophy. From Spain, France, and England to Argentina, Brazil, and Portugal, we have taken a closer look at the main contenders for the prize, making use of the latest World Cup betting odds ahead of the big kick-off on June 11.

As well as looking at the leading candidates for the prize, we have analyzed some of the potential dark horses and made our World Cup predictions for the three host nations, the USA, Canada, and Mexico.

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World Cup 2026 Winner Odds

Our Top Pick: France

When analyzing the current world cup winner odds, France stands out as the best pick to win the tournament. Manager Didier Deschamps has a proven track record in knockout soccer, and the side is strong in virtually every part of the pitch.

Odds to Win World CupFanDuelDraftKingsBetMGMCaesars
Spain+450+475+450+450
France+490+500+450+450
England+600+650+650+700
Brazil+800+800+800+900
Argentina+950+900+800+850
Portugal+900+1000+1000+1000
Germany+1300+1400+1400+1200

Top World Cup 2026 Contender Breakdown:

  • Spain (+450): Leading the world cup 2026 betting odds favorites. The 2024 Euro winners play a possession-based style that will help them manage the intense North American summer heat.

  • France (+450): After winning in 2018 and finishing as runners-up in Qatar, they boast the strongest overall roster in the tournament.

  • England (+650): The Three Lions feature an array of gifted attackers and have a massive asset in manager Thomas Tuchel.

  • Brazil (+800): Desperate for their first title since 2002. Carlo Ancelotti has plenty of quality available, but the Italian manager must find the right tactical balance.

  • Argentina (+800): The reigning champions are currently fifth-favorites but will not give up their trophy without a fierce fight.

  • Germany & Portugal (+900): Germany has the historical pedigree, though this isn't their greatest squad. Portugal is brimming with talent, but questions remain surrounding manager Roberto Martínez.

Odds to Reach World Cup Final

It won't be suprise that the top seven teams who dominate World Cup predictions, are the top seven teams to reach World Cup final.

Odds to Reach FinalFanDuelDraftKingsBetMGMCaesars
Spain+260+220+225+230
France+290+300+250+260
England+360+300+300+325
Brazil+440+400+375+425
Argentina+490+425+375+400
Portugal+480+500+500+475
Germany+660+550+500+525

World Cup 2026 Underdogs to Reach Final Breakdown

Now, we already analized the top contenders, so let's look on some World Cup teams that can suprise us and may actually reach finals.

  • Belgium & Netherlands: Not many 2026 FIFA World Cup predictions mention Belgium, but they were handed a kind group stage draw and feature a great balance of youth and experience. Their neighbors, the Netherlands, are defensively stout and will not concede many goals.

  • Norway: Cruised through qualifying (winning all eight games) and features world soccer's most prolific striker in Erling Haaland.

  • Colombia & Ecuador: Colombia were the 2024 Copa América runners-up, while Ecuador outperformed everyone except Argentina in South America’s grueling qualifiers.

  • Uruguay: Known for punching above their weight, though their recent form has been patchy.

  • USA & Croatia: The USA will benefit from home-field advantage and an improved squad under Mauricio Pochettino, but both they and Croatia will need to find a sharper cutting edge in the final third (and some good fortune) to make a deep run.

Dark Horse World Cup Betting Odds

Our Top Dark Horse Pick: Japan

In any comprehensive set of World Cup 2026 predictions, finding a high-value dark horse is essential. Japan is arguably the best national team on the planet outside of Europe and South America. They play an eye-catching brand of technical soccer, and after beating Spain and Germany at the last tournament, their World Cup odds 2026 make them a highly attractive outside pick.

Odds to Win World CupFanDuelDraftKingsBetMGMCaesars
Belgium+2200+3500+3300+3000
Norway+3500+3000+2500+3500
Colombia+4500+4000+4000+4000
Japan+8000+6500+5000+5500
Turkey+12500+10000+6600+8000
Ecuador+10000+8000+6600+10000

Keep an Eye On:

  • Turkey: Vincenzo Montella has done an excellent job, leading the Crescent-Stars to the Euro 2024 quarter-finals. With a favorable draw in Group D, they have a highly realistic path to the knockout stages.

Outright Winners of Group Stages

When looking beyond the tournament champion, the World Cup 2026 group winner odds offer another exciting market to explore. The teams that finish first and second will automatically advance to the round of 32, along with the eight third-place finishers with the best overall records.

The table below reveals our predicted winner for each of the 12 groups at the tournament, alongside their current prices to finish at the top of the table.

Odds to Win GroupFanDuelDraftKingsBetMGMCaesars
Group A: Mexico-125-110-110+100
Group B: Switzerland-130-105-125-125
Group C: Brazil-340-370-500-400
Group D: USA+130+125+130+140
Group E: Germany-190-310-325-325
Group F: Netherlands-115-120-140-125
Group G: Belgium-195-230-285-250
Group H: Spain-380-450-500-500
Group I: France-210-230-250-250
Group J: Argentina-260-340-300-300
Group K: Portugal-200-230-250-250
Group L: England-240-320-350-325

Host Nation Team Chances

The current World Cup betting odds show the USA as the likeliest North American champion, followed by Mexico, and then Canada. All three teams were placed in Pot One ahead of the draw, ensuring easier group matchups.

  • USA: Mauricio Pochettino’s squad has shown promising recent improvements. Many players are thriving at high levels in Europe, led by AC Milan star Christian Pulisic.

  • Mexico: They will benefit from their familiarity with the regional heat and altitude, but face massive pressure from their passionate fanbase and suffer from a lack of creativity in the final third.

  • Canada: The least favored of the trio. While Jesse Marsch’s side is dangerous going forward and features Bayern Munich star Alphonso Davies, there are major doubts surrounding their defensive solidity.

Who Were the World Cup 2022 Winners?

Argentina was the winner of the World Cup 2022. The Albiceleste lost their first match of the tournament, suffering a shock 2-1 defeat by Saudi Arabia. They proceeded to beat Mexico and Poland to finish top of their group, before eliminating Australia in the round of 16.

Argentina overcame the Netherlands on penalties in the quarter-finals and then beat Croatia 3-0 in the last four. A 2-2 draw after extra time in the final against France led to another shoot-out, which Lionel Scaloni’s side won 4-2.

France topped their group ahead of Australia, Tunisia, and Denmark. A 3-1 victory over Poland preceded a 2-1 defeat of England, before les Bleus booked their spot in the final with a 2-0 triumph over Morocco in the semis.

Which Teams Have Been Most Successful at the World Cup?

World Cup WinnersVictoriesMost Recent Victory
Brazil52002
Germany/West Germany42014
Italy42006
Argentina32022
Uruguay21950
France22018
Spain12010
England11966

Who Will Host the 2026 World Cup?

In June 2018, the USA, Canada, and Mexico were named hosts of World Cup 2026. They received 134 votes, while the rival bid from Morocco got 65. There were three abstentions and one non-vote.

FIFA had previously banned co-hosts after the World Cup 2002, which took place in Japan and South Korea. However, the expansion of the tournament to 48 teams necessitated a review of that policy.

Sixteen host cities have been chosen for World Cup 2026: two in Canada, three in Mexico, and eleven in the USA.

This is the fourth time the World Cup will be hosted in the region. Mexico staged the competition in 1970 and 1986, while the USA won the rights in 1994.

How Will the World Cup 2026 Work?

World Cup 2026 will be the first edition to feature 48 teams. Because of this, it also includes a special new World Cup 48-team bracket pairing. Those sides will be divided into 12 groups of four, and the top two in each section will advance to the knockout stage along with the eight third-place finishers with the best records.

A round of 32 will then follow, before the round of 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals, third-place play-off and final. The total number of games will rise from 64 to 104, and the finalists will end up playing one more match than they did in the 32-team tournaments from 1998 to 2022.

To seamlessly accommodate these additional knockout rounds, the World Cup schedule has been stretched across an extended 39-day window.

Will the USA Be in the 2026 World Cup?

The three co-hosts, the USA, Mexico and Canada, automatically qualified for World Cup 2026. The USMNT will be hoping to reach the knockout phase of the tournament for a second edition in a row, having reached the round of 16 in 2022. With matches spread across North America,

How to Watch World Cup 2026 on TV

  • Dates: June 11, 2026 - July 19, 2026

  • Location: USA, Mexico, and Canada

  • How to Watch: Fox Sports, Telemundo

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Greg Lea WSN Contributors

Greg Lea

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Greg Lea is a freelance soccer journalist from London. He is the former editor of The Set Pieces, and has contributed to the Guardian, FourFourTwo, and ESPN. A Crystal Palace fan, he is a long-time subscriber to the belief that it's the taking part that counts.
Email: greg.lea@wsn.com
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