Martingale Strategy: What It Is & How to Use It in Sports Betting

The Martingale strategy is a system of betting that’s been used for nearly 300 years. This technique relies on continually doubling your bet after each loss, and it remains popular today due to the simplicity of the strategy. 

It’s used most often in games like roulette, but also as a strategy in sports betting. Keep reading to learn more about the Martingale betting strategy, including how it works in sports betting, the pros and cons of using it, and much more.

What Is the Martingale Strategy?

The Martingale strategy is a betting technique where you double your bet amount after a loss. You continue this strategy of doubling on losses until you win a bet, with the expected outcome that the resulting win will equal your initial bet and cover all of your previous losses.

The Martingale strategy works on the principle that you are never more than one successful bet away from recovering all your losses. 

It’s easy to understand and put into practice for gamblers of all levels of experience and, in theory, it will eventually lead to success. However, in practice, it is subject to certain limitations, most notably bankroll limitations during losing streaks. 

The concept is thought to have originated for coin-toss games, and today the Martingale strategy is commonly used in casino games like roulette, blackjack, and craps. It’s also used in sports betting and to trade in the stock market.

How Does the Martingale Strategy Work?

The Martingale strategy relies on a straightforward system of doubling bets on losses until you achieve a win. It doesn’t require any complicated calculations, and can be used by any type of player.

To better understand how the Martingale strategy works, let’s apply it to a simple coin toss game. A coin toss has only two outcomes, heads or tails, with an equal 50% chance of landing each outcome.

With a starting wager of $1, you’ll keep betting on heads until you achieve a win. The game proceeds as follows:

• Bet 1: Wager $1, land on tails. Your total loss is $1.

• Bet 2: Wager $2, land on tails. Your total loss is $3.

• Bet 3: Wager $4, land on heads. You get your $4 back and win an additional $4, for a total of $8.

In three coin tosses, you’ve wagered $7 and ended up with $8, for a net gain of $1.

In this example, the Martingale strategy works based on the expectation that the coin will land on heads eventually, although you don’t know when this will happen. The strategy works best on betting where there is a 50-50 outcome, with odds of even money or +100, like betting Red/Black on a roulette wheel.

The biggest risk with Martingale is the potential for your bets to grow exponentially if you go on a losing streak. 

If you have an unlimited bankroll, the Martingale system is pretty much guaranteed to work, since the coin will logically eventually land on heads if you keep flipping it infinitely. The trouble is, no one has an unlimited bankroll, so you need to be prepared to absorb losing streaks.

Read more about bankroll management in sports betting.

How to Use the Martingale Strategy in Sports Betting

The Martingale strategy can be used to bet on most sports, including baseball, football, hockey, and horse racing.

Generally speaking, the strategy is easiest to employ with even money bets (or, at least, close to even money), like point spread betting or totals bets where the odds are normally around -110. 

When you introduce different types of bets with different odds, the strategy becomes much more complicated, since you need to alter your bet sizes every time based on potential payouts. 

Let’s look at some examples of how the Martingale strategy works in sports betting. 

We’ll start by imagining we are placing bets at +100, which means you would need to bet $50 in order to win $50.

Before you begin, you need to understand the total bets you can place with the budget you have, so you don’t run out of money before you win. 

Imagine you have a budget of $1,000, and you plan to place your first bet at $50, which is 5% of your bankroll. The Martingale strategy doubles your losses like this (with your total outlay thus far in parenthesis):

• Bet 1: $50

• Bet 2: $100 ($150)

• Bet 3: $200 ($350)

• Bet 4: $400 ($750)

• Bet 5: $800 ($1,550)

Total bet amount: $1,550, which exceeds your $1,000 budget.

This means that with a bet size of 5% of your bankroll, you would have to hit a win within your first four bets in order to not run out of funds. Knowing this, you may choose to adjust your initial bet size, for instance to 1% of your bankroll ($10) to give yourself more room to absorb losses. Here’s how that would look:

• Bet 1: $10

• Bet 2: $20 ($30)

• Bet 3: $40 ($70)

• Bet 4: $80 ($150)

• Bet 5: $160 ($310)

• Bet 6: $320 ($630)

• Bet 7: $640 ($1,270)

In this case, you won’t bust until you reach the seventh bet. This shows you how important it is to choose a bet size that gives you enough wiggle room. 

Let’s say in the above example, you finally won the sixth bet of $320, for a return of $640. Great! The Martingale system works, and you have won back all of your losses plus the initial $10 profit.

However, the fact that you needed to bet a total of $630 just to win $10 is a good illustration of the risk involved. 

Next, let’s take a look at the Martingale strategy as it applies to a specific sport, with more complicated odds. Imagine you are betting point spreads on the NFL. 

These bets normally have odds of around -110, which accounts for the vig. The vig (short for vigorish) is the cut charged by the sportsbook for accepting a bet. Let’s say we have a budget of $11,000 and we’re betting 1% of our bankroll. 

• Bet 1: $110 (-110)

In this case, a successful bet pays out $210, for a $100 profit. If your bet loses, simply doubling your bet won’t be enough to cover all your losses and account for your first bet, thanks to the vig. 

Instead, you will need to place a bet equal to your first bet, plus your potential winnings from that bet, plus the vig. This works out at $110 + $100 + $21, for a total of $231, slightly more than doubling your bet.

• Bet 1: $110 (-110)

• Bet 2: $231 (-110)

If that bet loses, your next bet is determined by the same formula: the size of your second bet, plus the potential winnings from that bet, plus the vig. This works out at $231+$210+$43.10, for a total of $474.10

• Bet 1: $110 (-110)

• Bet 2: $231 (-110)

• Bet 3: $474.10 (-110)

And so on. 

Although it seems a lot more complicated, the concept is the same: your next bet is always determined by the amount you would need to bet to cover all your previous losses and cover you initial bet, based on your initial bet size.

With odds of +100, doubling your bet is enough to do that. With -100, you need to do a little more math. With even more divergent odds, it just gets more complicated.

Unless you’re an advanced bettor, it’s much easier to stick to using the Martingale strategy with +100 bets. 

Pros & Cons of Using the Martingale Strategy in Sports Betting

The Martingale strategy definitely isn’t a sure thing and, as with all betting strategies, there are both benefits and risks associated with using it. Here are some of the pros and cons of using the Martingale strategy for sports betting:

Pros:

👍 Simplicity

The Martingale strategy is extremely simple to learn. Unlike some more advanced betting strategies, the Martingale doesn’t involve complex mathematics or a sophisticated understanding of probability. With just two basic rules - double your losses, and repeat until there’s a win - the Martingale is an easy strategy to remember even in tense, high-stakes situations.

👍 Predictable Returns

It’s easy to predict your winnings with this strategy. The math guarantees that a win will always recoup your total losses and add a profit. Because one win is all you need, you can recover your funds quickly. A strategy that offers predictable return gives you more confidence in your betting.

👍 Good for Casual Bettors

While a high-roller can potentially win big using the Martingale strategy, it carries much more risk. Instead, the Martingale strategy is ideal for casual bettors and beginners who aren’t chasing huge wins. Dividing your bankroll into modest bet sizes like 1% or 0.5% gives casual bettors an easy structure to follow.

Cons:

👎 Not a Guaranteed Win

While it’s true that you are always only one win away from recouping all your losses with the Martingale system, that does not make it a full-proof system. In fact, it’s a fallacy to think like that. Even cautious and casual players can easily end up losing when they use Martingale, which is important to understand. 

👎 Losses Compound Quickly

By doubling your bet after each loss, you can find yourself betting large amounts of money pretty quickly. The larger your initial wager, and the longer your losing streak continues, the more significant your losses will be. This makes the Martingale strategy best for modest, short-term bets. As with any type of gambling, it’s essential to only gamble with money that you are comfortable losing. 

👎 Complicated With Different Odds

As our previous NFL example shows, the Martingale strategy becomes much more complicated if you employ it on any bets other than even money / +100. Additionally, some casinos or sportsbooks may charge an extra commission on certain bets, which complicates things too. We only recommend using the Martingale strategy for bets at different odds if you are an experienced gambler with an understanding of the math. 

Conclusion

The Martingale strategy is a classic betting strategy that’s been around for hundreds of years. It remains popular because of its simple rules, and can be used by both new and experienced players.

If you want to use the Martingale strategy to bet on sports, we recommend sticking to even money or +100 bets. This is by far the easiest way to use the strategy, and it provides a familiar betting pattern with predictable returns, which is an important part of being a successful sports bettor.

As with all betting strategies, there are risks associated with the Martingale and it’s not a guaranteed way to win. However, as long as you understand the risks, it’s a fun strategy that gives structure to your gambling.