2021 Chilukki Stakes (Churchill Downs) Predictions, Betting Odds, Top Picks

Chilukki Stakes Odds and Post Position

Check out our predictions and odds for the Chilukki Stakes at Churchill Downs!

PP Horse Odds Jockey Trainer
T Gaffalione C Block
B J Hernandez Jr D Romans
3 MATERA 3/1
F Geroux B Cox
M Garcia P D’Amato
J Talamo P McGee
R Santana Jr N Casse
J Rosario W Mott
C Landeros I Wilkes

Best Bets for the Chilukki Stakes, Picks

Here are my plays ($40 in total)

$5 Exacta Box – Matera and Obligatory = $10

$5 Exacta Box – Matera, Obligatory and She Can’t Sing = $30

If you’re playing only to win, go with my top pick Matera (3/1).

2021 Chilukki Stakes Predictions

Obligatory returns to the scene of her biggest win to date when she headlines a field of eight fillies and mares set for the $300,000 Chilukki Stakes on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

A 3-year-old daughter of the two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, Obligatory came from way back to win the Grade 2 Eight Belles on Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs. She has not won in four subsequent starts, but the Bill Mott-trained gray filly has kept top company. Best among her results since winning in Louisville back on April 30 were second-place finishes in both the Grade 1 Acorn at Belmont Park and the Grade 1 Cotillion at Parx Racing.

Chief among her competition in Saturday’s Grade 3, one-mile affair will be Matera. Trained by Brad Cox, the regally bred daughter of Tapit won back-to-back stakes races this summer in the Midwest before finishing a solid fourth behind Shedaresthedevil last out at Churchill Downs.

A former winner of this race, and multiple graded stakes winner, Sally’s Curlin will be looking to return to her best form. After struggling through her first four starts of the season, the 5-year-old showed signs of getting good again with a just miss second last time at Keeneland.

Chilukki Stakes Predictions


The only 3-year-old in the field is also the class of the race.

An impressive Grade 2 winner over the track in April, she followed that up with strong seconds in the Grade 1 Acorn and Grade 1 Cotillion. She also threw in a couple of duller efforts in the Grade 1 Test and last time in the Grade 2 Raven Run.

This looks to be her easiest assignment in some time, but having won only twice in eight starts, I cannot consider her a sure thing. She also will need to be kept in the race, as she can sometimes be too far out of it early.

A major threat to win, I only like one better.


The biggest threat to the race favorite, this impeccably bred 4-year-old daughter of Tapit has come along nicely this year for local trainer Brad Cox. She finished fourth last time, which was her only start at Churchill Downs, but she lost by less than 3 lengths in the Grade 3 Locust Grove against a tougher field than this.

Before that, she had won three in a row, including stakes wins at Indiana Grand and Ellis Park. Reunited with rider Florent Geroux — the pair is 3-for-3 together — she should sit a good stalking trip and get first jump on Obligatory. She is the top pick.

Sally’s Curlin

This confirmed late runner has plenty of back class for trainer Dale Romans, including a win in the 2019 edition of the Chilukki Stakes. Unfortunately, it’s been 20 months since her last win in the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The good news is that she showed signs of life last time with a fast closing second place finish at Keeneland.

She also has a good history over the Churchill Downs main track, having also broken her maiden going one-mile here. At her best, she is a real threat to come running and perhaps even go by them all, but it’s hard to know if she still has that type of performance in her.

Miss Bigly

Coming from California, this daughter of Gemologist has run several solid efforts in stakes races this year. While she didn’t beat much in her lone stakes score at Del Mar, she faced pretty solid filly and mares in the other three stakes tries and was pretty competitive in each.

She was well beaten by Envoutante in her only race at Churchill Downs this year, but still was good enough to finish second in the listed stakes race.

While I like others better, it’s hard to knock her stakes form this year. She is in with a shot.

She Can’t Sing

This one could be the speed of the race and comes in off a very nice win over the track.

Of course that 7 furlong allowance race on October 2 came against a lesser crowd than she will face on Saturday.

She will also need to prove that she can carry her speed an extra furlong in the one-mile graded stakes, as well, but a repeat effort would make her a serious player here.

The daughter of Bernardini also has shown a fondness for the main track at Churchill Downs, where she has finished first or second five times. It should be a matter of how far she can take them.

Its Cold in Dehere

This cleverly named reformed claimer was run down late by Sally’s Curlin last time, but that third-place finish came at Keeneland. The daughter of Ice Box seems to be a better horse at Churchill Downs, where she has won 4-of-8 and finished in the money seven times.

In fact, before the race at Keeneland, she had won two straight at Churchill, and won them both easily.

With good tactical speed, she should sit a good trip in here and is eligible to surprise with a good effort. Obviously, this will be a class test, but her form over the track is good enough to take a shot.

Princess Causeway

Trained by Ian Wilkes, this mare has done most of her racing on the turf of late but has won three times on dirt in seven-lifetime attempts.

All of her racing has come on the turf this year, and her form is quite solid.

Most recently she won a solid allowance race at Keeneland on the front end, beating fellow Chilukki starter Pass the Plate. If she can transfer that good form over to the main track, which is not too much of a stretch, it looks like she is in with at least a shot.

Pass the Plate

She too has done most of her racing on the grass, but also has some good results on dirt including a second-place finish in the off the turf, Mrs. Revere, at Churchill Downs last fall.

A consistent rallier, she does not often find the winner’s circle, but has proven to be a solid stakes horse on the turf, who often cashes a check.

I am not sure about the switch to dirt, but her record on the main track is good enough to at least consider. She is more likely to fill out the bottom portion of the exotics, rather than actually win, though.

How to Watch the Chilukki Stakes

Chilukki Stakes Race Information
What Chilukki Stakes (Grade 3)
Location Churchill Downs
Time Saturday, November 20 — 5:36 pm Eastern time
How to Watch TVG
Purse $300,000

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Brian Zipse

Expert on Horse Racing

Taken to the races at a very young age, Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Professionally, his work has been published on several leading industry sites. Brian served as the Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, where he still writes a regular column and hosts the popular weekly webcast HorseCenter.

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