Belmont Stakes 2025 Odds: Journalism and Sovereignty Rematch in the Final Leg of the Triple Crown

Belmont Stakes 2025 Odds

Odds by author Brian Zipse.

My Top 5 Picks to Win the Belmont Stakes

Journalism

Although he ran second as the favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby, I maintain he is the best 3-year-old in the country. The athletic son of Curlin dominated good horses in winning three consecutive graded stakes in Southern California. In winning the Preakness Stakes two weeks after the Derby, he once again overcame trouble and ran down strong speed in the stretch. Trained by Michael McCarthy, he has bounced back well from the rigors of the first two legs of the Triple Crown and appears to be thriving up at Saratoga.

It is not easy to run in all three legs of the Triple Crown and he will be the only horse doing it this year, but his smooth stride and superior talent make him a great candidate to run big in all three. He has never run a poor race, but a 19-horse field, off track, and blazing early pace were enough for Sovereignty to rally by him in the Kentucky Derby. His courageous win in the Preakness demonstrated that he remains at the top of his game. I believe we will see a fair race on Saturday with the best horse coming out on top. Journalism is my top pick in the Belmont Stakes.

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Baeza

While Journalism and Sovereignty share the spotlight after winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown, this impeccably son of McKinzie continues to thrive and lurk in the shadows. Improving leaps and bounds this spring, he ran a strong second to Journalism in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, before running an even better third at Churchill Downs. With a little less racing experience than the top two, he found some traffic and raced a bit greenly, but was still finishing full of run.

Having skipped the Preakness, the Belmont Stakes will be his opportunity to shine and prove that he belongs in the discussion as one of the best sophomores in the land. Leading rider Flavien Prat remains aboard, and with a little more natural speed than Sovereignty, I see him as the biggest threat to Journalism in the Belmont. His odds will be better, as well.

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Hill Road

There is reason to question whether Hill Road is in a class with horses like Journalism, Sovereignty, and Baeza, but that is why you will get attractive odds on him Saturday. Despite having very little early pace in his first two starts in America, he was good enough to rally for third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Tampa Bay Derby. With a little better pace set up, like he should see in the Belmont, he was able to fly late and win the Peter Pan (G3) last time. Making only his third start of the year here, I expect him to be ready to show his best. He is my top longshot.

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Sovereignty

Since the first time I saw him in a maiden race last summer at Saratoga, I have said that he is one of the best looking horses around. Armed with a strong early pace to rally into, the son of Into Mischief ran to his looks and won America’s most prestigious race. Choosing to pass on a chance on the Triple Crown, trainer Bill Mott thought it would be best for the Kentucky Derby winner to skip the Preakness and wait for the Belmont. His strategy could pay off, but with less pace in this one, and as one of the favorites, I am looking elsewhere on top. Having said that, he has done little wrong and it would come as no surprise to see the late runner come with another strong charge.

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Rodriguez

A week ago, it appeared that the impressive winner of the Wood Memorial could be the lone speed in the Belmont for trainer Bob Baffert. That changed when the lightly raced Crudo entered the field. That alone should make this a tougher task for Rodriguez. The talented son of Authentic has run some powerful races on the front end, so he must be respected, but with other speed now in the race, I believe his chances to win the Belmont are no better than fifth best.

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My Picks for the Kentucky Derby - Best Bets to Make

$10 Exacta Part Wheel - Journalism over Baeza and Hill Road ($20 wager)

$5 Exacta Part Wheel - Baeza over Journalism and Hill Road ($100 wager)

$10 Exacta Box - Journalism and Baeza ($20 wager)

$5 Exacta Box - Journalism, Baeza, and Hill Road ($30 wager)

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How to Watch the Belmont Stakes 2025

• What: Belmont Stakes (Grade 1)

• Location: Saratoga

• Time: Saturday, June 7 at 7:04 pm ET

• How to Watch: FOX

• Purse: $2,000,000