Cotillion Stakes: Green up Has Been Dominant in Each of Her Four Starts This Year

Check out our predictions and odds for the 2022 Cotillion Stakes at Parx!

Cotillion Stakes Predictions and Best Bets

Here are my plays ($60 in total)

$15 Exacta Part Wheel – Green Up over Secret Oath and Shahama  = $30

$10 Exacta Part Wheel -Secret Oath and Shahama over Green Up  = $20

$5 Exacta Part Wheel – Green Up over Gerrymander and Society  = $10

Top Pick: Green Up (6/1)

Led by Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath, a strong field of nine 3-year-old fillies have been entered in Saturday’s $1 million Cotillion Stakes at Parx Racing.

A daughter of Arrogate, the D. Wayne Lukas-trained Secret Oath has not found an easy spot in the Grade 1 test, but it could still offer a bit of class relief after having faced either top males or division leader Nest in her last five races.

A three-time stakes winner in 2022, Secret Oath will look for her first victory since winning the most prestigious race in the division four starts back. She comes into the 1 1/16-mile Cotillion off a pair of runner-up runs behind Nest at Saratoga.

Among her challengers at Parx include six other stakes winners led by the returning Adare Manor.

Away since May, the Bob Baffert-trained filly won the Grade 3 Las Virgenes at Santa Anita three starts back and was second in a pair of Grade 2 races in her last two.

Trainer Todd Pletcher will be well represented with a trio of fillies with solid stakes experience in Goddess of Fire, Green Up and Shahama.

Goddess of Fire was third behind Nest and Secret Oath in the Grade 1 Alabama last out, while Green Up and Shahama come in off impressive stakes victories in the local Cathryn Sophia Stakes and Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks respectively.

Cotillion Stakes Predictions and Race Analysis

Secret Oath

This daughter of Arrogate has not quite lived up to her excellent win in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks in her three starts since. Still, her troubled fourth in the Preakness and subsequent second-place finishes to Nest at Saratoga are not exactly bad performances.

The good news is that in this one, she faces a good field, but something a little easier than she has seen in her last five races. While there is some worry that she has had a lot of tough races since debuting on October 31 last year, she still looks to be the one to beat in this Grade 1 test.

The D. Wayne Lukas-trained millionaire finds two turns but a shorter distance on Saturday, and there should be a solid pace to set up her rally. She is a must-include in the exotics for me here, but there is one filly who I believe offers better value.

Adare Manor

This well-liked daughter of Uncle Mo will be making her first start in more than four months on Saturday and her connections have found a very difficult spot for her return. This will be the toughest test yet for the Bob Baffert-trained filly.

After winning the Grade 3 Las Virgenes by a pole three starts back, she burned plenty of money when second in both the Santa Anita Oaks and Black-Eyed Susan as a strong favorite. Things only look tougher in this field.

Clearly a talented filly, I am not touching her in this spot. She could prove me wrong, but as the second choice on the morning line, I am looking elsewhere for better value.

Goddess of Fire

The first of three from the barn of Todd Pletcher, I am honestly not sure why this one is the lowest of the three on the morning line. She is one of only two fillies in the field to have not yet won a stakes race. Frankly, I do not expect it to happen in the Cotillion.

Perhaps I am being a little harsh, as she has been second in four stakes races and comes in off a solid third behind Nest and Secret Oat in the Grade 1 Alabama.

Still, there seems to be too many nice fillies in here to land on this daughter of Mineshaft, who has not found the winner’s circle in eight consecutive starts.

Green Up

With all the graded stakes experience in the field, it is the filly who will be making her graded stakes debut that I have landed on as my top choice. A solid second in her career debut 16 months ago, we did not see this daughter of Upstart again until this March.

Since her return, the Todd Pletcher-trained filly has been dominant in each of her four starts this year. She’s won at different distances and at different tracks and has looked good each time. Her easy win over a good filly last time in the Cathryn Sophia at Parx was her best yet.

With a big win over the track, the ability to stay close then pass fillies, and a pair of stakes wins that tell me she is ready for this test, I really like her chances on Saturday under Irad Ortiz, Jr. She is my top pick.

Gerrymander

This daughter of Into Mischief has been a little in and out in her career. At her best, she has beaten good fillies in the Tempted last year and the Grade 2 Mother Goose this year. Then there are races like her last one, where she never threatened when a well-beaten fifth in Alabama.

It may be worth noting that both of her stakes wins came at Belmont Park and at one turn. Still, I do think that the Chad Brown-trained filly is a danger in here. Cutting back in distance from that disappointment in the 10-furlong Alabama is likely a positive.

I could see her bouncing back with a much-improved effort on Saturday, but my confidence level is not high enough to include her as one of my top choices.

Shahama

A monster over in Dubai this winter, winning her first four starts in impressive fashion, it’s been a bit of a mixed bag for the daughter of Munnings since arriving at Todd Pletcher’s barn in the US.

Making her first start in the country in the Kentucky Oaks was a tough spot, but she did not run poorly after falling too far back early. Since then she was second best to Gerrymander in the one-turn Mother Goose before winning the Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks in style.

The two turns and 8 1/2-furlongs she will see at Parx seem to be right up her alley and she should get a good stalking trip on the outside from rider Flavien Prat. A little better with each start in America, I think she has a shot to surprise here.

Society

This speedy daughter of Gun Runner gets another shot at Grade 1 racing after getting off to a poor start in the Coaching Club American Oaks and finishing way behind Nest at the finish two starts back.

The good news is that she got right back to her winning ways by going wire-to-wire in the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks last time for her fourth win in five career starts. Expected to go right for the early lead here, she will likely get tested early and often in the 1 1/16-mile affair.

It’s hard to know how good the Steve Asmussen-trained filly is yet, but we’ll find out much more on Saturday. She is in with a chance, but I do like a few others better.

Morning Matcha

One of seven stakes winners in the field, this daughter of Central Banker earned that distinction at Parx back in March. It came against much cheaper, and in five subsequent five-stakes tries, she has not come close.

There is a romping allowance score over the track two starts back on her past performances, but that momentum ended when returned to stakes company she was thrashed by Green Up last time. She’s a decent filly, but I have a hard time seeing her turning in a strong effort against this bunch.

Beach Daze

This New Jersey-bred filly has won four of her last six races but will be up against a whole new level of filly when she runs against this loaded field on Saturday. A former claimer, she comes in off a 6-furlong allowance win at Monmouth Park.

At best, she could have the speed to be involved early, but despite a solid record at Parx, it would be quite a surprise if she were able to stick around in the stretch. I find her hard to recommend.

How to Watch the Cotillion Stakes