Fleur de Lis Stakes Odds: A Mo Reay Is the One They Will Have to Beat

Fleur de Lis Stakes Odds and Post Positions

Check out our predictions and odds for the Fleur de Lis Stakes at Ellis Park!

*Odds provided by author Brian Zipse.

Fleur de Lis Stakes Predictions and Best Bets

Here are my plays ($60 in total)

$20 Exacta Part Wheel - A Mo Reay over Royal Take Charge and Heartyconstitution = $40 

$10 Exacta Part Wheel - Royal Take Charge and Heartyconstitution over A Mo Reay = $20

If you're playing only to win, go with my top pick A Mo Reay (8/5).    

A stakes winner in three of her last four starts, A Mo Reay is the one they will have to beat among a field of eight older females entered in Saturday’s $400,000 Fleur de Lis Stakes at Ellis Park. 

The daughter of Uncle Mo had a three-race winning streak snapped last time when she fell back far early and had a wide trip in the Grade 1 La Troienne at Churchill Downs.

Trained by Brad Cox, A Mo Reay had won stakes at Fair Grounds, Oaklawn Park, and Santa Anita before that loss, highlighted by a determined score in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile.

Chief among her rivals on Saturday in the Grade 2 affair will be the Steve Asmussen-trained millionaire, Pauline’s Pearl. 

A Grade 1 winner last year, the daughter of Tapit began 2023 with a convincing score in the Grade 3 Houston Ladies Classic. She has been well beaten by A Mo Reay in her two starts since, though. 

Another mare of interest in the 9-furlong Fleur de Lis will be the Al Stall, Jr. trained Royal Take Charge. 

The daughter of Will Take Charge will be making her stakes debut here, after winning three of her first four career starts. Most recently, she romped home in a Churchill Downs allowance race by nearly seven lengths. 

Fleur de Lis Stakes Predictions and Race Analysis

A Mo Reay

This talented daughter of Uncle Mo has found new life since switching to the barn of Brad Cox late last year. She rattled off three straight stakes wins for her new barn, including the Grade 1 Beholder Mile. 

She found a tougher spot last time and checked in fourth in the Grade 1 La Troienne, but considering her trip, the 2 1/4-length loss was not a bad effort at all. 

She will be much closer to what looks like a slow early pace this time, and will likely be tough to deny as she goes after her fourth stakes win in five starts. She is the top pick.

Pauline’s Pearl

Stonestreet born and bred, this Tapit mare has been a very solid stakes runner the past few years.  A 6-time stakes winner with nearly $2 million in the bank, she was third in this race last year. 

She also scored her lone Grade 1 victory last season. After starting the year off well in 2023 with another score in the Grade 3 Houston Ladies Classic, she has disappointed in her last two. 

She also will need to deal with a lack of pace in here, making it harder for her to rally. If she can return to her old form, she is a huge threat, but I worry she is not at her best right now.

A Royal Charge

Easily the least experienced mare in the field, this Al Stall, Jr.-trained daughter of Will Take Charge has won three of four-lifetime starts. Her only defeat was a good effort, and she comes in off a big allowance win at Churchill Downs. 

That win five weeks ago was at the same distance as the Fleur de Lis. At a distance that suits her, and with no other speed to make her life tough early, she looks to have found a great spot for her stakes debut. 

She still has to prove that she can run with the likes of A Mo Reay, but I expect her to run another strong race on Saturday.

Bellamore

Trained by Simon Callaghan, this 5-year-old mare has not found the winner’s circle in seven consecutive stakes attempts. Having said that, she has faced some solid competition and has been competitive. 

Most recently, she battled for the lead in the Grade 1 Gamely on the grass but faded out of contention down the lane. A dual-surface mare, she has yet to win on dirt in six-lifetime attempts.

On the plus side, her recent dirt tries were good, and she does have the tactical speed to be involved early in this paceless race. She is a contender.

Heartyconstitution

This daughter of Constitution comes into the Fleur de Lis on a roll for trainer Joe Sharp. Since returning from a long layoff, she is 3-for-3 this year, getting it done at three different tracks.

It also doesn’t seem to matter whether it is turf or dirt, she seems equally adept on either surface. Most recently, she won a minor stakes race at Penn National on the grass, but the race before that came on dirt at Churchill Downs. 

This will be a class test for her, but given her tactical speed and good form, I believe she is one of the biggest threats to A Mo Reay.

Moon Swag

This multiple-stakes winning daughter of Malibu Moon is capable of popping up and competing at this level, but as a mare with very little speed, it does not appear this race sets up for her well. 

In three starts this year, she has failed to make much impact, with only a pair of fourth-place finishes for her efforts. 

I will wait to see her in a race with a more early pace to assist her late run before jumping on her again in a graded stakes race.

Music Street

This lightly raced daughter of Street Sense has made some strides since last fall with a pair of good-looking wins at Churchill Downs. 

This will be her toughest test yet, though, as she has found a tough race in which to make her stakes debut. She found very little early pace last time when a well-beaten third behind Royal Take Charge, and looks destined to have similar pace issues here. 

Trained by Whitworth Beckman, she does look like a filly on the improve, but I do not like her chances on Saturday.

Soul of an Angel

This outsider just ran last Saturday and did not fare well in the Lady Jacqueline Stakes at Thistledown. 

If she does come back on short rest, this looks like another difficult spot. She lacks early speed, and with no pace to set the table, it will be hard for her to make up ground. 

Add to that, she falls short against this field from a class and form perspective and I find her impossible to recommend.

How to watch the Fleur de Lis Stakes

Fleur de Lis Stakes Race Information

• What: Fleur de Lis Stakes (Grade 2) 
• Location: Ellis Park
• Time: Saturday, July 1 -- 4:22 pm Eastern time
• How to Watch: FanDuel TV
• Purse: $400,000