Noble Damsel Stakes Predictions, Top Picks, Odds
Post Position and Odds – Noble Damsel Stakes
Check out our predictions and odds for the Noble Damsel Stakes at Belmont Park!
|1||IN A HURRY||6/1 |
|J Castellano||C McGaughey|
|2||FLOWER POINT||10/1 |
|J Lezcano||C McGaughey|
|3||HIGH OPINION||7/2 |
|L Saez||A Dutrow|
|4||PLATINUM PAYNTER||20/1 |
|K Carmouche||J Vasquez|
|5||SHIFTY SHE||8/1 |
|E Gonzalez||S Joseph Jr|
|6||LOVE AND THUNDER||7/2 |
|J Ortiz||C Brown|
|7||MARLBOROUGH ROAD||30/1 |
|B Hernandez||J K Sweezey|
|8||TRUTH HURTS **MTO||**2/1 |
|J Rosario||C Summers|
|9||RISKY MISCHIEF||12/1 |
|D Davis||J Englehart|
|I Ortiz Jr||C Brown|
Best Bets for the Noble Damsel Stakes
Here are my plays ($45 in total)
$10 Exacta part wheel – HIgh Opinion over Tamahere, Love and Thunder and In a Hurry = $30
$5 Exacta part wheel – Tamahere, Love and Thunder and In a Hurry over HIgh Opinion = $15
If you’re playing only to win, go with my top pick High Opinion (7/2).
Trainer Chad Brown has won this race five times in a row and he is in a good position to add another as he sends out the formidable pair of Tamahere and Love and Thunder in Saturday’s Grade 3 Noble Damsel on the turf at Belmont Park.
Tamahere, a 4-year-old French-bred is likely to be favored in the one-mile turf affair. Most recently, she romped home in the listed Violet Stakes over a yielding turf course at Monmouth Park by 7 ¼ lengths, four weeks ago. A winner of the Grade 2 Sands Point at Belmont Park in her American debut last fall, she also finished second in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland earlier this season
Love and Thunder, meanwhile, come into the Noble Damsel off a sharp allowance score at Belmont Park three weeks ago. Before that, the daughter of Siyouni had finished second as the favorite in each of her four starts since coming to the United States from England in April.
Chief among the competition to the Brown pair is the Anthony Dutrow trained High Opinion. The daughter of Lemon Drop Kid enjoyed a successful summer at Saratoga first with an allowance victory on July 31 over Love and Thunder, and then with a just miss second-place finish in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa on August 28.
Noble Damsel Stakes Predictions
The first of two from the powerful Chad Brown barn, this import from France has the most class in the field. Coming off a big win at Monmouth, she will look to once again use her speed to go wire-to-wire. There are a few red flags for the favorite, though. There are a few other horses in the race who should pressure the early pace, which will make it tougher on her. She also has been a little inconsistent since coming to the U.S. seven starts ago. On her best, the daughter of Wooton Bassett would be very tough to beat against this field, but as the favorite, I see some good reasons to take a shot against her.
Love and Thunder
The other Brown should also get plenty of action at the betting windows. In fact, she has been 2/1 or lower in all of her five starts in America. The bad news for her supporters is that she was beaten in four of those. Still, she ran second each time and broke through last time with a 4 ¾-length romp in a Belmont allowance race. Armed with that confidence builder, it would not surprise me at all to see her turn the tables on High Opinion, who beat her three starts back and win in her US stakes debut. Having said that, she is not my top pick, especially considering that she will have relatively low odds once again.
If anyone can prevent Brown from winning the Noble Damsel for a sixth consecutive time, this filly looks like the most likely candidate. Bred for the lawn, and to get better with experience, this daughter of Lemon Drop Kid seems to be coming into Saturday’s test in career-best form, and that is saying something having finished a good second in the Winter Memories Stakes at Aqueduct last fall. She rallied past Love and Thunder late in a one-mile allowance race at Saratoga two starts back, and was a scant nose away from winning the Grade 2 Ballston Spa against some pretty nice mares last time. She’s had some time off that big performance and seems well suited for the one mile distance. She is the top pick.
In a Hurry
The first of two from trainer Shug McGaughey, this daughter of Blame seems to be making steady improvements, as so many do for her Hall of Fame trainer. In fact, her last three races look like her best yet. Three starts back she was a good second to the classy Kalifornia Queen at Belmont. At Saratoga, she just missed in a good allowance effort, and last time rolled away from allowance company going a flat mile on a Belmont turf course listed as good. She should get very similar conditions on Saturday as she runs in her first stakes race of the year. Considering her recent form, I believe she has a real shot in here.
This one not only has plenty of speed to challenge Tamahere early, but she also is a two-time stakes winner in 2021. A winner of 5-of-9 overall, the daughter of Gone Astray returned from a sizable layoff in good form earlier this year. After just fading late in a solid return try, she won a pair of listed stakes on the Gulfstream Park turf course. Those were a little cheaper than what she will see on Saturday, but since coming north, she has been beaten less than two lengths in a pair of solid stakes at Saratoga at Kentucky Downs. I’m not sure this is any easier, but she should at least make her presence known early on.
The other McGaughey mare has won two of her last three, with both of the wins coming at Belmont Park, including a nice 7-furlong win three weeks ago. She likes to rally, so a strong early pace would suit her, but she will be tested for both class and the one-mile distance on Saturday. Mostly having sprinted in her career, it will be interesting to see if the daughter of Point of Entry maintains her strong closing kick at a mile. If she does, she is dangerous in here, but overall, I like her stablemate just a little bit better.
This well bred 4-year-old daughter of Into Mischief is another who could go with the favorite early. Never out of the money in six turf tries, she returned from a layoff with two solid efforts at Saratoga this summer. Her victory last time and a second before that were both at 5 ½ furlongs, so she will need to see if she can stretch her speed and extra 2 ½ furlongs on Saturday. It’s possible in this one-turn mile, but never having done anything but sprint in her career, I think she is more likely to be part of the early pace before fading in the stretch.
A former claimer, she has recorded some pretty decent results in stakes racing since moving barns a year ago. Early this year, she finished second in the Plenty of Grace Stakes at Aqueduct, and then third in the Grade 3 Beaugay at Belmont. A return to that form would put her in with a shot on Saturday, but unfortunately, her recent form is not as good. Most recently she was a well-beaten fifth behind In a Hurry in a Belmont allowance race. I am going to pass.
A winner of only one race in eight tries, this Irish-bred 3-year-old filly looks to be placed a little over her head in the Noble Damsel. Winless in six tries in 2021, she has run in stakes races in each of her last three but never threatened in any of the trio at either Monmouth Park or Pimlico. Now she tries solid older mares at Belmont Park. I find her hard to recommend.
Entered as Main Track Only and will run only if the race is taken off the turf. With not too much rain in the forecast, she is a likely scratch.
How to Watch the Noble Damsel Stakes
|Noble Damsel Stakes Race Information|
|What||Noble Damsel Stakes (Grade 3)|
|Time||Saturday, October 23 — 4:21 pm Eastern time|
|How to Watch||Fox Sports 1|
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Taken to the races at a very young age, Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Professionally, his work has been published on several leading industry sites. Brian served as the Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, where he still writes a regular column and hosts the popular weekly webcast HorseCenter.
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