Peter Pan Stakes (Belmont Park) Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds 2021
If you're playing only to win, go with my top pick Nova Rags (3/1)
Peter Pan Stakes – Post Position and Odds
Check out our predictions and odds for the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park!
|J Velazquez||T Pletcher|
|2||NOVA RAGS||3/1 |
|J Alvarado||W Mott|
|3||PROMISE KEEPER||5/2 |
|L Saez||T Pletcher|
|4||WOLFIE’S DYNAGHOST||6/1 |
|J Ortiz||T Albertrani|
|5||I AM THE LAW||15/1 |
|K Carmouche||J P Terranova II|
|6||RISK TAKING||5/2 |
|I Ortiz Jr||C Brown|
Best Bets for the Peter Pan Stakes
Here are my plays ($45 in total)
$10 Exacta Box – Nova Rags and Promise Keeper = $20
$5 Exacta Box – Nova Rags and Wofie’s Dynaghost = $10
$5 Exacta part wheel – Nova Rags over Risk Taking, Overtook and I Am the Law = $15
Nova Rags (3/1)
Freshly minted to racing’s Hall of Fame, trainer Todd Pletcher will send out the promising duo of Promise Keeper and Overtook in a compact field of six 3-year-olds set for Saturday’s Grade 3 Peter Pan at Belmont Park.
Promise Keeper could go favored off an impressive victory last month at Keeneland. It was the second win in four career starts for the son of Constitution, who looks to prove that his disappointing performance two starts back in the Tampa Bay Derby was not indicative of his true ability.
Meanwhile, Overtook, an expensive yearling purchase, returns to the races for the first time since rallying for second in the Grade 3 Withers Stakes back in early February. The winner of that race is also in the field and comes from the always dangerous barn of trainer Chad Brown. After his win in the Withers, Risk-Taking failed to back it up, as he came home well beaten in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial last time.
Another who should attract plenty of support in Saturday’s 9-furlong test is Nova Rags. A two-time winner from the Hall of Fame barn of Bill Mott, the son of Union Rags comes into the Peter Pan off three stakes efforts in Florida, including a win in the Pasco Stakes, and a fourth-place finish last time in the Florida Derby.
How to Watch the Peter Pan Stakes
|Peter Pan Stakes Information|
|Race||Peter Pan Stakes (Grade 3)|
|Time||Saturday, May 8 — 5:12 pm Eastern time|
|How to Watch||Fox Sports 1|
An impressive front-running winner in his second career start, this son of Constitution failed to run back to that effort when he faded to last in his stakes debut, which was the Tampa Bay Derby. Undaunted, he found an easier spot last time, when he came from a little off the pace and blew past for an easy allowance win at Keeneland.
He should be more prepared for his second try in a stakes company. He also looks to have the most speed in a race without much early pace. There are a few others in here with more, and better, stakes experience, but the talent he has shown in his victories should compete here. I like him second-best overall.
Back-to-back decisive wins at Aqueduct, including in the Grade 3 Withers made this Chad Brown trainee a lukewarm favorite in the $750,000 Wood Memorial five weeks ago. Unfortunately, the son of Medaglia d’Oro never kicked it in and checked in a non-threatening seventh.
The Peter Pan does not have the depth that the Wood Memorial did, but he will need to improve off that disappointing effort if he wants to return to his winning way. Without a lot of speed in this field, it could be a challenge for him to uncork his best late run as he returns to one turn. I like him better in the underneath spots than for the win.
Trained by Bill Mott, this son of Union Rags is one of only two stakes winners in the field, having accounted for the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs three starts back. Since then, he has come back with two good efforts, finishing second in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis and fourth in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
In that last effort at Gulfstream, he showed good tactical speed before fading a bit late, in what was surely a tougher overall spot than this. The return to one-turn on Saturday could also prove to be a positive, as his a return to Belmont, where he won in his debut. In fact, he is the only horse in the field with a win at Belmont Park. In a competitive race, he is the one I like the best.
The second from the barn of Todd Pletcher, this regally bred son of Curlin finished second behind Risk-Taking in the Withers back on February 6 in his fourth career start. With three months off since then, I’m not sure that the million-dollar yearling purchase will be completely geared up for this, as it might be primarily a prep for the June 5 Belmont Stakes.
On the positive, he seemed to be getting better with each start before the short layoff, but his lack of speed makes me believe he is more of a threat to rally up for a piece, rather than a visit to the winner’s circle.
A sharp winner in his only career start, that maiden win last November looks even better as several horses from that race have since contended in graded stakes racing. Trained by Tom Albertrani, this son of Ghostzapper is a half-brother to the millionaire Sadler’s Joy.
Six months is a long layoff, especially for a horse who has only one career race, but the performance, as well as his pedigree, are good enough to consider him here in a very challenging return spot. The tactical speed he showed in his debut win also should help on Saturday.
I Am the Law
The only maiden in the field, this son of Mshawish deserves to be the longest shot on the board when the gates open. Having said that, he is not without hope. Saturday’s Peter Pan is not full of world-beaters, and this one still has the potential to be a nice horse for trainer John Terranova.
In his debut in February, he made a nice move to take over the lead before succumbing in the stretch to be third. Last time, he improved to rally for a solid second. Both efforts came on off tracks at Aqueduct. A fast track at Belmont could move him up in his third-lifetime start. A lack of much pace does not help his cause, but he could hit the board at a price.
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Taken to the races at a very young age, Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Professionally, his work has been published on several leading industry sites. Brian served as the Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, where he still writes a regular column and hosts the popular weekly webcast HorseCenter.
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