Rachel Alexandra Stakes Predictions, Odds, Picks (Fair Grounds)

Rachel Alexandra Stakes Post Position and Odds

Odds for the race taken from TVG. If you’re looking for a great horse racing betting app then TVG betting might be the option for you.

PP Horse Odds Jockey Trainer
1 LA CRETE 3/1
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J Rosario S Asmussen
2 NORTH COUNTY 5/1
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A Beschizza B Walsh
3 MISS MATTIE B 15/1
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M Smith R Hess Jr
4 DREAM LITH 8/1
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R Vasquez R Diodoro
5 DIVINE HUNTRESS 10/1
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J Ortiz H G Motion
6 CANDY RAID 20/1
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J Riquelme K Desormeaux
7 TURNERLOOSE 12/1
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F Geroux B Cox
8 GODDESS OF FIRE 12/1
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L Saez T Pletcher
9 AWAKE AT MIDNYTE 6/1
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M Gutierrez D O’Neill
10 CALIFORNIA ANGEL 20/1
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D L Parker G Leonard III
11 HIDDEN CONNECTION 9/2
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R Gutierrez W B Calhoun

Best Bets for the Rachel Alexandra Stakes

Here are my plays ($50 in total)

$10 Exacta Box – North County and La Crete = $20

$20 Win – North County = $20

$5 Exacta Box – North County and Divine Huntress = $10

If you’re playing only to win, go with my top pick North County (5/1)

Rachel Alexandra Stakes

Led by the unbeaten and highly regarded La Crete, a field of eleven 3-year-old fillies will look to prove worthy to remain on the Kentucky Oaks trail in Saturday’s Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds.

A very impressive debut winner at Churchill Downs, La Crete lived up to expectations last time in her stakes debut when she battled back down the stretch at Fair Grounds to win last month’s Silverbulletday. Owned and bred by Stonestreet, the regally bred filly is trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen and will be ridden by Joel Rosario in her first attempt in a graded stakes race.

Chief among her rivals will be the Grade 3 winner, Hidden Connection. The daughter of Connect won her first two starts by a combined 16 ¾ lengths, which included a runaway victory at Churchill Downs in the Pocahontas Stakes. Her winning streak ended in her most recent start when she finished a well-beaten fourth in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Another filly who deserves respect on Saturday is the stakes winner North County. Undefeated in three career starts, the daughter of Not This Time earned her first stakes victory last time when she finished strongly to win the Untapable Stakes at Fair Grounds by a neck for trainer Brendan Walsh.

Contested at 1 1/16-miles, the Rachel Alexandra will offer Kentucky Oaks qualifying points on a scale of 50-20-10-5.

Rachel Alexandra Stakes Analysis

La Crete

You can’t get much better breeding than what this filly brings to the table. A half-sister to the top mare Claiere, she is a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro and the Grade 1 winning mare Cavorting. So far, she has lived up to her pedigree. An impressive debut victory at Churchill Downs was followed by a determined win in the recent Silverbulletday Stakes over the Fair Grounds main track. It would seem that the filly is destined to become a graded stakes winner sooner than later. I’m not crazy for the rail draw, but she does have solid early speed to get a good position early, and with top rider coming in again to ride, the trip will likely work out. She is the most likely favorite and probably the one to beat, but I am going to look for a little more odds for my top pick in this wide-open race.

Hidden Connection

This Bret Calhoun-trained daughter of Connect sure looked good in her first two starts. Romping wins in a Colonial Downs maiden race and then the Grade 3 Pocahontas earned a shot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Del Mar, where she was left far behind by the champion Echo Zulu. The champ is not here for this one, but it still is a difficult spot for her first race in 3 ½ months. Drawn to the far outside, she will also have to do some early work to get a good position heading into the first turn. As good as she looked in her first two career starts, I recognize her as a dangerous filly in here, but with the post position and layoff, I am going to take a shot to beat her as one of the favorites.

North County

This unbeaten filly from the barn of Brendan Walsh has traveled from Indiana Grand to Keeneland, and then to Fair Grounds to collect three victories in as many starts. She also has already won on turf, slop, and a fast track. The daughter of Not This Time became a stakes winner last time when rallied for a hard-fought victory in the Untapable Stakes eight weeks ago. Her ability to pass horses, and the win over the track should suit her well as she makes her first start in a graded stakes company. I believe she beat a pretty nice filly last time and that she will fit in with this cast. I also feel like she is still a bit underestimated, so she should offer solid value on Saturday. She is the top pick.

Awake at Midnyte

This chestnut filly ships in from California for trainer Doug O’Neill after finishing a good second in a pair of graded stakes races. After gamely winning her debut on the dirt, she just missed in the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante going a mile on the grass. Showing her versatility, she returned to the main track last time for the Grade 2 Santa Ynez at 7 furlongs and came up three-quarters of a length short. Now she ships east to run 8 ½ furlongs in the Rachel Alexandra. She’s done little wrong to this point, but I expect this to be the toughest test yet competition-wise. Likely to be forwardly placed early, I expect her to be in with a shot at the top of the lane, but I expect a few others in here to out finish her.

Dream Lith

This daughter of Medaglia d’Oro was a good winner of her debut at Saratoga, but was not able to do much in her next two, when moved up into Grade 1 stakes races. Sent off at 9/1 last time, she beat a decent field in the Grade 2 Golden Rod at Churchill Downs. Off since that late November win, she will attempt to prove it was no fluke when she returns in this Grade 2 affair. I think this one is even tougher, but she merits respect after the move forward in her stakes victory. I do like a couple of others better, but she is clearly a threat if she can come back running off the 12-week layoff.

Divine Huntress

Having changed hands late last year, and now in the barn of Graham Motion, it appears this daughter of Divining Rod has plenty of potentials. After rallying for third in her career debut at Laurel, she went to Parx and dominated her competition in a maiden and then an allowance race. The second victory came at two turns and she won by nearly 13 lengths. This clearly will be a big move up in class, but I like the progression she made in each of her three starts. She has the ability to pass horses and the distance will not be an issue. She is an interesting filly in this deep field.

Turnerloose

A solid filly on the turf last year for trainer Brad Cox, this daughter of Nyquist has landed in a tough spot to make her dirt debut. Having not run since fading out of the picture in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, she should be fresh and ready to make her presence felt in the early stages. Bred to handle the surface switch, it would come as no surprise if she went right out for the early lead on Saturday. The assignment seems like a lot to ask in her 3-year-old debut, but I do believe that she is a talented filly that is usable in the exotics

Goddess of Fire

Trained by Todd Pletcher, this daughter of Mineshaft got up to win her debut at Saratoga, but was not able to do much in her next two, which came in stakes races. She improved upon that last time in the 7 furlong Gasparilla Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs when she rallied for second. Perhaps it was the return to sprinting that brought about better performance, or maybe it was just the lighter competition. Returning to not only better horses again, but also two-turns, she will need to show that the last one was the beginning of an overall improvement. I like others better.

Miss Mattie B

Well beaten by Awake at Midnyte last time in the Santa Ynez, this California shipper has yet to breakthrough in three tries on dirt. Her lone win in five career starts was a nice maiden score on the Del Mar turf two starts back. Now she ships east for the Rachel Alexandra and while the daughter of Tonalist could improve on her fading third in her graded stakes debut, after battling on the lead, it would seem like a stretch to believe she can turn it around enough to win this.

California Angel

A graded stakes winner on turf, she did not do a whole lot in her return to dirt when finishing sixth in the Untapable. It remains to be seen if she is just better on turf, but so far the past performances would seem to say that. Her best races have all come on the grass, and her two races so far on dirt have been rather uninspiring. If she can prove on Saturday that she does like dirt as much as turf, then she becomes a threat, but until she does, I have to pass on her in this deep field.

Candy Raid

This daughter of Candy Ride was a 62/1 long shot in the Silverbulletday but was only beaten 3 ½-lengths when fourth. It was her best performance in eight career starts, but she will need to take another step forward on Saturday to turn the tables on La Crete and beat the rest. She is getting better, as her win two starts back at Delta Downs was also solid, but it’s hard to be excited about her chances once again as she takes on the toughest field yet in a career which has seen only two career wins.

How to Watch the Rachel Alexandra Stakes

Rachel Alexandra Stakes Race Information
What Rachel Alexandra Stakes (Grade 2)
Location Fair Grounds
Time Saturday, February 19 — 6:27 pm Eastern time
How to Watch TVG
Purse $300,000

 

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Brian Zipse

Expert on Horse Racing

Taken to the races at a very young age, Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Professionally, his work has been published on several leading industry sites. Brian served as the Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, where he still writes a regular column and hosts the popular weekly webcast HorseCenter.

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