Suburban Stakes (Belmont Park) Predictions, Picks, Betting Odds

If you're playing only to win, go with my top pick: Happy Saver (9/5)!

Suburban Stakes Post Position and Odds

Check out our predictions and odds for the Suburban Stakes at Belmont Park!

PP Horse Odds Jockey Trainer
1 MORETTI 8/1
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F Prat T Pletcher
2 INFORMATIVE 15/1
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M Franco U St Lewis
3 PRIORITIZE 10/1
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J Rosario H J Bond
4 MYSTIC GUIDE 1/1
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L Saez M Stidham
5 MAX PLAYER 10/1
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R Santana Jr S Asmussen
6 HAPPY SAVER 9/5
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I Ortiz Jr T Pletcher

Mystic Guide, making his first start since a triumphant trip overseas for the $12,000,000 Dubai World Cup, figures to be the top choice against a group of five other older males assembled for the 1 ¼-mile, Grade 2 Suburban.

A “Win and You’re In” event for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, the Saturday feature at Belmont Park has also attracted a familiar foe to Mystic Guide in the Todd Pletcher trained Happy Saver.

A most impressive winner in two starts this year, the 4-year-old Mystic Guide scored a romping win in the Grade 3 Razorback at Oaklawn Park before his trip to Dubai. Currently ranked #1 on the latest NTRA Poll, the son of Ghostzapper has never finished out of the money in eight career starts for trainer Mike Stidham.

Unbeaten in five career starts, Happy Saver began his 4-year-old season with a workmanlike allowance victory five weeks ago at Belmont Park. The two-time stakes-winning son of Super Saver closed out last season with a determined win over Mystic Guide in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at the same track and distance as Saturday’s test.

Moretti, Max Player, Prioritize and Informative complete the field of six for the $400,000 Suburban.

Best Bets for the Suburban Stakes

Here are my plays ($40 in total)

$10 Trifecta Key – Happy Saver over Mystic Guide and Moretti = $20

$20 Win – Happy Saver = $20

Suburban Stakes Top Pick

Our Pick
Top Pick Happy Saver (9/5)
Best Pick Odds provided by TwinSpires
Happy Saver (9/5) Bet Now

How to Watch the Suburban Stakes

Suburban Stakes Race Information
What Suburban Stakes (Grade 2)
Location Belmont Park
Time Saturday, July 3 — 5:44 pm Eastern time
How to Watch Fox Sports 1
Purse $400,000

Race Analysis

Mystic Guide


A Godolphin homebred, this son of Ghostzapper showed plenty of promise last season but has taken things up a notch in 2021. His wins in the Razorback and the rich Dubai World Cup were top-notch performances that rightfully place him in the discussion for the World’s finest dirt horse. Away since his overseas win more than three months ago, he will need to bring his best if he is to beat the last horse to defeat him, Happy Saver.

This 10 furlong Suburban looks to be a race devoid of much early speed, and given that his top rival has more tactical speed, this might be the spot to play against the favorite. He is the deserving top choice, but I will be betting on the same result that we saw last October

Happy Saver

While he is not particularly flashy in his races, all he does is win. The recent return to the races was far from scintillating, but it should give the Todd Pletcher trainee the foundation needed to be ready for this big summertime test. With no real pace to speak of in here, this son of Super Saver should have every opportunity to control the early stages of the race.

Either he goes right to the lead, or he is able to sit outside in second if some other horse pushes early. Tactically, the advantage looks to be his. Perhaps Mystic Guide has moved past him this year, but you can never count out an undefeated horse. I like his chances to repeat his score over the favorite, just as he did in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Moretti

This distance specialist, also trained by Todd Pletcher, made a return to the races one month ago in the Grade 2 Brooklyn. He came up short down the stretch of the 12-furlong race, but it should have him ready for Saturday’s test. He finished second in the Suburban last year, albeit a well-beaten second. Certainly not at the talent level of the top two, he does have good tactical speed and the distance will definitely not be a problem. A two-time stakes winner, including one at Belmont, he looks like the most likely candidate to complete the trifecta.

Prioritize

He was also in that Jockey Club Gold Cup of last fall, and could not really threaten the top two at all. He is a capable horse, who on his best can hit the board, but he has never quite demonstrated the ability to defeat the likes of Mystic Guide and Happy Saver. His return to the races in the Pimlico Special was nothing to write home about either. He can improve off that effort, but it seems like anything better than third in here would be a surprise.

Max Player

A graded stakes winner and veteran of all three legs of last year’s Triple Crown, this son of Honor Code had a pretty good run last summer when finishing third in both the Belmont Stakes and the Travers Stakes. Unfortunately, he seemed to tail off a little at the end of the year. In his two races this year, he has not fared well, finishing 11th in the Saudi Cup and 6th in the Pimlico Special. If he can somehow regain his best form, perhaps he can rally into the trifecta, but his last handful of races simply do not look promising.

Informative

Attempting to strike while the iron is hot, this son of Bodemeister comes right back after pulling off a shocking upset in the Grade 3 Salvator Mile at Monmouth Park three weeks ago. He had not done much recently before that, but the win over Ny Traffic is good enough to at least consider him for the exotics in here. I can’t say I like his chances, but trainer Uriah St. Lewis has pulled off more than one big upset in his career.

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Brian Zipse

Expert on Horse Racing

Taken to the races at a very young age, Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Professionally, his work has been published on several leading industry sites. Brian served as the Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, where he still writes a regular column and hosts the popular weekly webcast HorseCenter.

Email: [email protected]