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Monterrey vs Pachuca: Monterrey Will Go In as Favorites With Home Advantage on Their Side

Written by: Nikhil Kalro
Updated October 14, 2022
13 min read
  • Monterrey will take on Pachuca on Saturday at the Estadio BBVA
  • Monterrey have won their last three matches in the Liga MX
  • Pachuca have suffered one loss in their last five matches in the Liga MX

Monterrey vs Pachuca Odds

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Match Result Odds
Monterrey -110
Draw +245
Pachuca +290

Monterrey vs Pachuca Odds

Monterrey to win

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Monterrey Vs Pachuca 2022 10 01

Monterrey vs Pachuca Prediction

This promises to be a fantastic match between two of the top sides in the Liga MX this season. Monterrey are currently ahead of Pachuca in second place on the Liga MX table by three points but there isn’t a lot between the two sides at the moment.

Club America are probably a bit ahead of both. Santos are right behind the two sides and just as good as any of the names mentioned so far on their day. It’s really tight at the top and that’s just how fans like it, which is why this game could be a real game changer for the side that comes out on top.

The two sides have faced each other 28 times in the past with Monterrey having won 13, Pachuca winning eight and seven of the matches ending in draws. Monterrey will go in as favorites with home advantage on their side and should come out on top in this match.

Previous Meetings

Pachuca were brilliant and thoroughly dominant in the last meeting between the two sides back in April, winning 3-0. They only conceded one shot, which didn’t even find the target. Luis Chavez got Pachuca off in the 16th minute. The home side kept going, taking seven shots on the day and were rewarded with their second of the day thanks to Roberto de la Rosa in the 70th minute before Chavez got his second four minutes later.

A few months have passed since the match but it’ll definitely be playing on Monterrey’s mind heading into this match. They haven’t gotten outplayed like this in a while and Pachuca will be fancying their chances, having improved since then.

Monterrey Get Late Goals To Beat Struggling Atlas

Monterrey beat Atlas, currently sitting in 17th place on the table, quite comfortably over the weekend by a score line of 2-0. They had most of the possession as expected, took 17 shots compared to Atlas’ nine but had to wait till the 79th minute for their first goal.

Sebastián Ignacio Vegas Orellana was the man on target to give them the lead. With Atlas’ resolve broken, Monterrey could now add more to the tally and Jesús Daniel Gallardo Vasconcelos made sure to capitalize four minutes after the first goal went in.

In the end, it was a well-deserved win. Monterrey had to be patient, not lose their nerve, and were rewarded in the end for not panicking. The team has really grown in recent months.

Been In Excellent Home Form

The team hasn’t lost in their last five home games and won their last two. They’ve scored two per game at home, which is an excellent return. If they do the same here, they should get all three points.

Defensively, they’ve been quite solid at home as well, conceding only 0.71 per game – anything less than 1 per game is usually considered good. Rodrigo Aguirre and German Beretrame have also been great with 16 goals between them.

Strongest Defense In The League

No team has conceded fewer goals than the 13 from Monterrey. As the old football saying goes, “Attack wins you games and defense wins you leagues.” Monterrey have certainly taken that to heart and will be confident that they’ve got the rearguard to put a stop to the threat that Pachuca will provide in this match.

A win might even see them on top of the league for the week and it’s important that they know what it’s like to be at the very top and not let that feeling leave them. The entire team will have to work hard to make sure that they can hold onto that excellent defensive record.

Pachuca Impressive Against San Luis

Pachuca put on another impressive display, this time away from home, against Atletico San Luis, winning 2-1 over the weekend. Nicolas Ibanez gave Pachuca the lead in the 28th minute but they didn’t hold on for long, with Abel Hernandez scoring a goal almost immediately after the ensuing kick-off. Aviles Hurtado found the back of the net in the 62nd minute for Pachuca, helping the away side realize their dominance in the match.

Pachuca had 63% of the possession, took 23 shots on goal with 10 finding the target and only conceded eight shots on goal with the only shot on target hitting the back of the net. It was a fine performance and San Luis were fortunate to have only conceded two on the day. It could’ve been a lot worse.

Pachuca Unfortunate Not To Be Higher

A look at the underlying numbers suggests that Pachuca should probably be scoring a lot more in games. They have scored 28 goals so far in this campaign, which isn’t a bad return but their expected goals suggest they should be scoring 2.30 goals per game. This is an excellent average, a lot higher than Monterrey’s.

As well as the likes of Nicolas Ibanez and Victor Guzman have done this season, they could still do better. In games against the other big sides in the league, it’s extremely important to be at your clinical best and this is something the side hasn’t managed all season. Underlying numbers have a habit of evening out as the season progresses and Pachuca will be hoping that they can find some good fortune in this tie.

More Dangerous In Away Ties

Even though the win rate does suggest that they’re better away from home with only 43%, their underlying numbers are even better on the road. The expected goals value away from home is at 2.32. This might just be the game where the chances might go in.

Monterrey are the home side and will be expected to attack and maybe leave their defensive line a bit high. Pachuca look like a side that need the easiest of chances to score their goals and the chances away from home are usually more open because the home team is bound to leave a lot of spaces to impose themselves on the opposition.

The only issue is that they’ve now played 16 games, which is a large enough sample. There’s a feeling that they might just not be capable of playing up to their ceiling. This is the ideal sort of game to change that but they’re also behind Monterrey and might have to play a bit safe to make sure the distance between the two sides doesn’t get better. This match has the makings of a real chess match.

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How To Watch Monterrey vs Pachuca

Teams Monterrey vs Pachuca
Location Estadio BBVA
Time Saturday, October 1 at 5:05 pm ET onwards
How to watch Univision networks TUDN and UniMas, ESPN Deportes, Telemundo and Fox Deportes
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Nikhil Kalro

681 Articles

With an interest in strategy and mathematics, applying that to sports writing was the natural progression. A writer at night and the founder of a gaming company, Nikhil’s previous experience includes working with ESPN for five years. His specialization includes soccer, basketball, tennis, and esports betting. Email: [email protected]

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