Toluca vs Pachuca Prediction: Pachuca Just Have To Be Professional

Written by: Nikhil Kalro
Updated October 28, 2022
7 min read
  • Toluca will take on Pachuca on Sunday, 30 October, 2022, at the Estadio Hidalgo
  • This is the second-leg final of the Liga MX Apertura 
  • Pachuca won the first-leg 5-1

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Toluca vs Pachuca Prediction

Toluca vs Pachuca Prediction

The Liga MX Apertura 2022 is coming to close with just one more game left to crown the winner. Pachuca will go into this match as heavy favorites, and you could argue that they already have one hand on the prize after beating Toluca 5-1 in the first-leg of the Liga MX Apertura final. 

With such a massive advantage heading into the second leg, it’s almost as good as done. Toluca will be heading into this match hoping they can salvage some pride after a forgettable evening in the first leg.

Toluca Switch Off At A Crucial Point

It would’ve been a difficult watch for many neutral observers. Pachuca saved one of their best performances of the season for the end. They made the perfect start, with Romario Ibarra getting them off the mark in the 8th minute. It was a brilliant team goal, taking less than 10 seconds for the ball to go from goalkeeper to Ibarra -- only three players were involved in the sequence. 

There are times when football can look very simple, and this was a case in point. Of course, Ibarra’s finish was extraordinary, finding the back of the net from a difficult angle, but he struck the ball so sweetly that there was no chance for the Toluca keeper to save it. 

Gustavo Cabral made it 2-0 five minutes later. Toluca’s worst fears were realized in the first-half of this game. They needed to be in this game for as long as possible before nicking a goal, but that plan had to go out of the window now. They had to search for a goal themselves, to relieve some of the pressure, but this played into Pachuca’s hands. 

Pachuca Should Have This In The Bag

Ibarra got his second of the night in the 36th minute, but before he did, Toluca missed a sitter in the 26th minute. Toluca desperately needed something to go their way after the nightmare start, but it was just one of those days to forget for the losing side. They snatched at some half-chances throughout the game. 

Maurcio Andres Isais scored another in the 41st minute to put Pachuca 4-0 before half-time. For Toluca, the second-half was mostly about damage limitation. They got one goal in the 78th minute thanks to Jordan Sierra, but it was too little, too late. Before Sierra’s goal, Nicolas Ibanez had made it 5-0 to Pachuca. Toluca will be quite shaken, and it’s hard to see them find the strength to overcome the manner of the loss just three days later.  

Previous Meetings

Pachuca have had a great record against Toluca in the recent past, beating them 4-1 in their meeting before the Liga MX Apertura final as well. It just seems like this is a match-up that really suits Pachuca. 

Pachuca have now got 11 wins in the head-to-head record. Seven matches have ended in a draw, and nine have ended with victory for Toluca. Toluca will have to forget everything, and just approach the second-leg like an isolated affair. 

Pachuca Just Have To Be Professional 

Pachuca just have to go about the next game in a professional manner, and they’ll be crowned the Liga MX Apertura winners. They have history on their side, winning the Invierno in 1999 and 2000; the Apertura in 2003; and Clausura in 2006, 2007, and 2016. 

They’ve already done something similar in the semifinals, beating Monterrey 5-2 in the first-leg before winning the second-leg 1-0. Monterrey were looking for a slip-up, but couldn’t find any in the end. 

Pachuca have been a solid outfit all season, conceding just 15 goals and ending fourth on the league table. No one was really expecting them to make it to the finals, never mind win it, but they’re almost there now. 

Nicolas Ibanez has been the star-man up front. He got on the scoresheet in the first-leg, and had a hat-trick in the semifinals, but this has been a team effort from the start. 

Pachuca Clicked At The Right Time 

One of the most impressive aspects of Pachuca’s campaign is just how ruthless they’ve been. They took full advantage of having an extra man in the semi-finals. They got off to a great start in the first-leg of the finals as well, but kept going, and made sure that they can calmly go about the second leg. 

This is a side to Pachuca that wasn’t on show for most of the season, but it has been the key to their success so far in the knockouts. 

Toluca Will Be Playing For Pride  

It is hard to see Toluca fight back from this position. The team finished sixth in the league, and were not expected to get this far. The win over Club America over the two semi-final legs will live long in the memory, but the first-leg loss in the finals will hurt for a while. 

It was important for Toluca to stay in the game for as long as possible, before nicking a goal, and taking it to the second-leg. Pachuca’s first goal was crucial because it opened the floodgates, and forced Toluca to open up a little more. When the chances did come, the team snatched at them, which isn’t surprising because of just how shaken they must’ve been after conceding the first couple of goals. 

The team wasn’t the strongest defensively in the league, conceding 23 goals, but they weren’t as bad as they showed in the first-leg either. Tightening up at the back has got to be the priority heading into this game. 

Toluca Can Still Win The Second Leg

Winning the second leg is still something the side can achieve. They just have to go with the same plan that worked against Club America. No one’s expecting them to make up the four-goal deficit from the first-leg, but a tight one-goal margin victory shouldn’t be out of the cards.

Pachuca didn’t play with the same intensity in their second leg against Monterrey, and they’re unlikely to be the same in this game. Toluca need to take advantage of that and show the quality that got them this far. 

Only a win by over four goals will help them lift the Liga MX Apertura crown, but any win will help redeem the side after a torrid first-leg. Toluca can still be quite proud of their campaign, and take the positives into the Clausura season.

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How to Watch Toluca vs Pachuca

TeamsToluca vs Pachuca


Estadio Hidalgo


Sunday, October 30 at 6:30 pm ET onwards

How to watch

Univision networks TUDN and UniMas, ESPN Deportes, Telemundo and Fox Deportes

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Nikhil Kalro

Sports Betting Analyst

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With an interest in strategy and mathematics, applying that to sports writing was the natural progression. A writer at night and the founder of a gaming company, Nikhil’s previous experience includes working with ESPN for five years. His specialization includes soccer, basketball, tennis, and esports betting.
Nationality: American
Education: N/A
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9 years
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