Best MLB Home Run Props Today: Adames Finding His Power Stroke

Willy Adames has not had a good start to his career in San Francisco, but he has finally settled in over the last week. He’s launched three home runs over his previous eight games, almost matching his season total of five. We’ll share why we like Adames to go deep again tonight, along with two other home run props that we love.

We’ll be using odds from Caesars Sportsbook for all three of our home run prop bets. Sign up for Caesars with our promo code WSNDYW and claim a “Bet $1, Double Your Winnings” offer. If you need more info, check our Caesars Sportsbook review.

For more daily MLB coverage, check our selection of the Best NRFI Bets Today.

Home Run Picks for Thursday, June 19

Carlos Correa Anytime Home Run (+400) at Caesars Sportsbook

The veteran shortstop has gotten off to a slow start in 2025 and owns an ugly .476 OPS in June. This is why his price for this bet is so valuable, and we believe it has a great chance to hit today.

The driving reason for that is Correa’s history against Reds’ starter Nick Martinez (4-7, 3.92 ERA). He is 9 for 14 with three home runs over his career, leading to a 2.143 OPS. While he may no longer be the hitter he once was, his confidence against Martinez will allow him to find that level of play once again.

Martinez started to turn things around in May, but he is 1-2 with a 5.74 ERA in three June starts. In his last time out, he allowed three home runs over just five innings, leading to an 11-5 loss. With the righty struggling and facing a familiar foe, we expect him to struggle badly against Correra today.

Bet $1 at Caesars and Get Ten 100% Profit Boost Tokens

Willy Adames Anytime Home Run (+400) at Caesars Sportsbook

Adames has been one of the worst signings of the 2025 season, with a .631 OPS and just eight home runs. However, he has been figuring things out over his last seven games. He has gone deep three times and raised his average from .194 to .206. 

The shortstop is an elite power hitter, but his struggles to make contact have limited his power numbers. With the 29-year-old finally looking more comfortable at the plate, we expect his home run numbers to spike.

Adames will be facing Guardians’ starter Gavin Williams (5-3, 3.89 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). The 25-year-old has a decent ERA, but his WHIP shows he has been getting lucky. He has faced the Giants’ shortstop twice and given up one home run.

Get Ten 100% Profit Boost Tokens at Caesars With a $1 Bet

Aaron Judge Anytime Home Run (+150) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Yankees outfielder remains one of the safest home run bets in the league. While his average has gone down this month, he is still delivering home runs. Considering his OPS against lefties is 1.426 and 1.220 at home, Judge is a fantastic bet to go deep.

Angels’ starter Tyler Anderson (2-4, 4.44 ERA, and 1.37 WHIP) doesn’t give up many home runs, but he’s been awful in June. He is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA over three starts. The veteran uncharacteristically allowed two home runs over five innings last week, showing he isn’t impervious to the long ball.

Anderson’s struggles have led him to some early exits, which is good news for Judge. The LA bullpen has allowed more home runs than any other in 2025, meaning he’ll have favorable matchups throughout tonight’s game.

Join Caesars and Double Your Winnings for the Next 10 Bets