Best NRFI Bets Today: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Takes the Mound

The Padres and Dodgers have great offenses, but I believe the pitching will shine early in this game for each squad. The Padres vs. Dodgers game is one of two NRFI bets I’m targeting on Thursday. 

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Guardians vs. Giants - Gavin Williams vs. Logan Webb (4:05 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-145) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Guardians take on the Giants in San Francisco, and there are two great pitchers on the mound in this matchup. Gavin Williams will toe the rubber for Cleveland, and San Francisco will go with Logan Webb. 

Williams is 5-3 with a 3.89 ERA in 2025. He has 72 strikeouts in 69.1 innings. 

Williams has a 1.47 WHIP and has allowed five runs in his last three starts, but he should respond in this contest. 

Logan Webb has some of the best strikeout ability in MLB which is why I like the NRFI. Webb is 6-5 with a 2.58 ERA and he has fanned 105 batters this season.

Both offenses are very similar this season, ranking in the bottom half of the league in team batting average. The Guardians are hitting .231 as a club, while San Francisco is slightly better at .233. 

It’s safe to say these offenses have struggled tremendously in 2025 and they tend to start slow. I expect the pitchers to shut down the offenses and throw a zero in the first inning. 

There’s a lot of buzz in San Francisco after trading for Rafael Devers, but this doesn’t change the fact that the Giants have been lost at the plate. 

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Padres vs. Dodgers - Ryan Bergert vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (10:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-104) at Caesars Sportsbook

The Padres and Dodgers have two of the best offenses in all of baseball, but I think they will start slow in this matchup. Ryan Bergert will square off against Yoshinobu Yamamoto and each pitcher has been solid thus far.

Bergert comes into this game at 1-0 in 19.1 innings. He has a 2.33 ERA and has struck out 16 batters in 2025. Bergert has a small sample size when looking at statistics, but I think he is on the verge of establishing himself as an elite MLB wing. 

Yamamoto has elite strikeout ability and I think he will confuse San Diego. He is 6-5 with a 2.64 ERA to go with 90 strikeouts in 78.1 innings. 

The Dodgers have the best team batting average in the MLB at .265, so Bergert must have his best stuff on Thursday. This is a scary lineup to face, but I need early strikes.

Yamamoto has started 14 games in 2025 and is gaining confidence by the start. When he is pitching at his best, he is unhittable and, hopefully, he brings it against a divisional opponent.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Astros vs. Athletics - Colton Gordon vs. Jacob Lopez - Both pitchers have ERAs around five and a combined record of 3-6. 

• Rockies vs. Nationals  - Chase Dollander vs. Trevor Williams  - Both pitchers have a combined record of 5-15. There should be plenty of runs in this contest as the total is set at 9.5.

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