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Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, August 31

Written by: Michael Savio
Published August 31, 2023
6 min read
Best MLB Bets Today August 31 23

New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out our MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities. 

My Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)

Run, don’t walk, to get this bet locked in. These two teams rank twenty-eighth and twenty-ninth in batting average and rank in the bottom ten in runs scored. We knew the Tigers would be in for a long season, but the Yankee’s struggles have been stunning. New York is currently 18.5 games out of the AL East lead and 11 out of an AL Wild Card spot. The reason has been a lineup that has dramatically underperformed, and we are going to capitalize on that today.

The Yankees will send Clarke Schmidt (8-8, 4.51 ERA) out to the mound this afternoon. The 27-year-old looked sharp in May and June, but the rest of his 2023 campaign has led to ugly season stats. However, a closer look at his game log shows that things haven’t been as bad as his stats indicate. Clarke has a 5.04 ERA across five August starts, but that was inflated by one 2-inning start against a Braves team that tagged him for eight runs. The righty did not allow more than two runs in his other four starts this month, all of which were against offenses better than the Tigers. Look for Schmidt to deliver another serviceable start, leading to a low-scoring title.

Matt Manning (5-4, 3.93 ERA) will get the start for the Tigers tonight, which is a big reason we love this bet. The 25-year-old has been one of the few bright spots on this Detroit team and has been at his best over his last three starts. Manning has allowed just one earned run on eight hits during that span, holding both the Red Sox and Astros scoreless. Those are top ten offenses, and Clarke held them to just three combined hits. The Yankees’ offense has been a bottom-ten unit in 2023, so Clarke should have no problem keeping this hot streak going. 

Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

My Pick: Nationals ML +136

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Washington is a team that has flown under the radar for most of the season. While they sit ten games under the .500 mark, they are 25-18 since the All-Star break. The Nats have the seventh-best batting average in the league and are in the top half in runs scored. Conversely, the Marlins have seen the clock strike midnight on their Cinderella season. Their record has dipped below the .500 mark as the team struggles to find any offense. Miami has lost eight of their last ten games, and we see another loss coming tonight.

The good news for Miami is that they will have Braxton Garrett (7-5, 3.96 ERA) on the mound. The young starter has been a critical piece for the Marlins, and he has a respectable 3.54 ERA across five starts this month. However, Garrett has lost his last two starts, including one last week against the Nationals. He allowed three runs across six innings but allowed seven hits. That will give the Nationals offense plenty of confidence to jump on the young starter early, supporting their starter tonight.

Joan Adon (2-0, 5.25 ERA) will make his seventh appearance of the season after being called up from the minors. The Phillies hit him hard a couple of weeks ago, but he has shown flashes of the pitcher that the Nationals hope he will turn into. That was on display last week when Adon shut out the Marlins across six innings. He allowed three hits and zero walks in that game, showing how much Miami struggled to figure him out. Given how their offense has been playing, don’t expect the Marlins to have to have solved him for tonight. 

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Odds Courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook.

My Pick: Under 8 (-110)

Thursday will kick off the highly anticipated matchup between these two NL powerhouses. While it features two of the league’s best offenses, it is also one of the week's best pitching matchups. That will help contain these powerful offenses, especially for the Braves, who are at the end of a long West Coast swing. They played in Colorado last night, and it will take a toll tonight against Lynn on the Dodgers. Conversely, the Dodgers are in the middle of a home stand, but they’ll be up against a Cy Young candidate tonight. Look for both to struggle to score, leading to a thrilling slugfest in LA.

Another big reason we like the Dodgers to contain the Dodgers is Lance Lynn (10-9, 5.56 ERA). The former All-Star was having the worst season of his career with the White Sox, but a trade to the Dodgers has turned things around. Lynn is 4-0 with a 2.03 ERA in five starts with the Dodgers, and he has allowed just three runs in three starts at Dodger Stadium. He now looks like the pitcher he was over the last few seasons, which is bad news for the Braves tonight.

Atlanta will turn to Spencer Strider (15-4, 3.46 ERA) tonight. The 24-year-old leads the league in wins and strikeouts, but things came apart a bit in June and July. He began to struggle to miss bats, and it inflated his ERA by almost a full point. The good news for the Braves is that the slump appears to be over. Strider is 4-1 with a 2.37 ERA in August, and he has allowed just one run over his last three starts (21 innings). The Dodgers offense is excellent, but they will stumble against a red-hot Strider tonight. 

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Michael Savio

Sports Betting & Gambling Industry Analyst

Gambling News
Online Sports Betting
Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Political Science
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: BetMGM Casino
3 years
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