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Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, October 10

Written by: Bryan Zarpentine
Published October 10, 2023
11 min read
Best MLB Bets Today October 10

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. See different MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!

My Pick: Twins ML

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The ALDS between the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins shifts to the Twin Cities on Tuesday for Game 3. The Astros slugged their way to a win in Game 1 while the Twins responded with a win in Game 2 to even the series. The Twins have now won five of the eight head-to-head matchups between these teams in 2023. Game 3 figures to be a tricky one to call because the Astros were one of the best road teams in baseball during the regular season. They also have a trusted pitcher in Cristian Javier on the mound. But the Twins are a trusted home favorite and will have Cy Young contender Sonny Gray on the mound, giving them enough of an edge to win Game 3 and take a series lead.

Gray was outstanding during the Wild Card round against the Blue Jays. While he was pulled after five innings, he threw five scoreless innings against an otherwise potent Toronto lineup, yielding just five hits and two walks. That makes it five consecutive starts for Gray in which he’s allowed one run or less. In fact, going back even further, he’s held teams to one run or less in eight of his last 10 starts, which is why he’s a serious Cy Young candidate. While he wasn’t quite that dominant when he faced the Astros earlier this season, he managed to limit the damage to three runs over six innings, giving Minnesota a chance to win the game. Gray has been even better at home than on the road this season and should also benefit from the later afternoon start time, keeping the Houston lineup under wraps and giving the Twins a chance to score some runs.

To be fair, the Astros are also in good hands with Cristian Javier. Despite having a modest 4.56 ERA in 31 starts this season, Javier is a proven playoff performer, going 4-1 with a 2.20 ERA in the postseason. The caveat is that most of his playoff outings have come in relief, as he has just two postseason starts. Houston will be hoping that he can deliver at least four or five quality outings in Game 3. He finished the regular season on a high note with six scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks, but that’s been the exception and not the rule. Javier has allowed at least three runs in seven of his last nine starts and has failed to go beyond five innings in seven of those starts. In his limited experience against the hitters in Minnesota’s lineup, Javier has been outstanding. But his recent track record doesn’t make him a reliable starter, and with Gray on the other side, Houston’s path to victory in Game 3 could be narrow, making the Twins an excellent bet.

Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

My Pick: Rangers ML

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Despite finishing the regular season with the most wins in the American League, the Baltimore Orioles are already facing an elimination game in Game 3 of the ALDS on Tuesday. The Texas Rangers eliminated the Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card round and now have a chance to do the same to the Orioles in their first home game of the postseason. It’ll be Dean Kremer trying to save Baltimore from elimination while Nathan Eovaldi will be trying to close out the series for the Rangers. While it’s hard to envision the Orioles being eliminated so soon, the streaky Rangers have been the best team in the playoffs thus far and look poised to finish off Baltimore on Tuesday.

Perhaps the biggest question for Game 3 is what version of Eovaldi will show up. He had a dreadful finish to the regular season, allowing 15 runs over his final 13.1 innings of the season across three starts. But he was outstanding against Tampa in the Wild Card round, allowing one run over 6.1 innings with no walks and eight strikeouts. If he can pitch like that Eovaldi, could keep the Baltimore lineup quiet enough to close out the series for Texas. The Orioles started to wake up offensively in Game 2, although it was too late to matter. A few Baltimore hitters have a good track record against Eovaldi, although they haven’t produced much power against him, which could be a problem with the way the Rangers have swung the bats in this series.

It’ll be Kremer trying to keep the Texas lineup from giving the Rangers another early lead. He won 13 games for the Orioles this year, although he also had a couple of subpar starts in September. It’s also been close to two weeks since Kremer last pitched, which could hinder his sharpness. If Kremer isn’t at the top of his game because the Texas lineup is coming off an 11-run outburst in Game 2. The Rangers are averaging 6.3 runs per game over their four playoff games and will be difficult to cool off. With that momentum and Kremer’s extended layoff, look for Texas to strike early and often, finishing off the Orioles in Game 3.

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AUTHOR

Bryan Zarpentine

199 Articles

Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.

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